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Rob Dellink - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • AD-DICE: an implementation of Adaptation in the DICE model
    Climatic Change, 2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink
    Abstract:

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that Adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of Adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including Adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between Adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement Adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the Adaptation Cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, Adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when Adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the Adaptation Costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that Adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential Costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later periods.

  • economic aspects of Adaptation to climate change integrated assessment modelling of Adaptation Costs and benefits
    Research Papers in Economics, 2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink, Shardul Agrawala
    Abstract:

    The present report seeks to inform critical questions with regard to policy mixes of investments in Adaptation and mitigation, and how they might vary over time. This is facilitated here by examining Adaptation within global Integrated Assessment Modelling frameworks. None of the existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) captures Adaptation satisfactorily. Many models do not specify the damages from climate change, and those that do mostly assume implicitly that Adaptation is set at an “optimal” level that minimizes the sum total of the Costs of Adaptation and the residual climate damages that might occur. This report develops and applies a framework for the explicit incorporation of Adaptation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It provides a consistent framework to investigate “optimal” balances between investments in mitigating climate change, investments in adapting to climate change and accepting (future) climate change damages. By including Adaptation into IAMs these already powerful tools for policy analysis are further improved and the interactions between mitigation and Adaptation can be analysed in more detail. To demonstrate the approach a framework for incorporating Adaptation as a policy variable was developed for two IAMs– the global Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE) and its regional counterpart, the Regional Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (RICE). These modified models – AD-DICE and AD-RICE – are calibrated and then used in a number of policy simulations to examine the distribution of Adaptation Costs and the interactions between Adaptation and mitigation. Using the limited information available in current models, and calibrating to a specific damage level, so-called Adaptation Cost curves are estimated for the world. Adaptation Cost curves are also estimated for different regions, although given the limited information available to calibrate the regional curves these should be considered as rough approximations of the actual Adaptation potential in the different regions. These Adaptation Cost curves reflect how different Adaptation levels will provide a wedge between gross damages (i.e. damages that would occur in the absence of Adaptation) and residual damages. The analysis presented suggests that a good Adaptation policy matters especially when suboptimal mitigation policies are implemented. Similarly, a good mitigation strategy is more important when optimal Adaptation levels are unattainable. The rationale for this result is that both policy control options can compensate to some extent for deviations from the efficient outcome caused by non-optimality of the other control option. It should be noted, however, that in many cases there are limits to Adaptation with regard to the magnitude and rate of climate change. The higher the current value of damages, the more important mitigation is as a policy option in comparison to Adaptation. The comparison between Adaptation and mitigation therefore depends crucially on the assumptions in the model, and especially on the discount rate and the level of future damages. The policy simulations also suggest that to combat climate change in an efficient way, short term optimal policies would consist of a mixture of substantial investments in Adaptation measures, coupled with investments in mitigation, even though the latter will only decrease damages in the longer term. The Costs of inaction are high, and thus it is more important to start acting on mitigation and Adaptation even when there is limited information on which to base the policies, than to ignore the problems climate change already poses. Ongoing increases in expected damages over time imply that Adaptation is not an option that should be considered only for the coming decades, but it will be necessary to keep investing in Adaptation options, as both the challenges and benefits of Adaptation increase. The results of these policy simulations confirm the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the relationship between Adaptation and mitigation as described in the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The framework developed in this report opens the door for further simulations that examine Adaptation Cost issues within other, more complex IAMs. The model additions investigated in this report can also shed light on how the next generation of IAMs will look. These tools can also be further strengthened by the incorporation of more detailed regional knowledge on the impacts of climate change and of Adaptation options.

  • economic aspects of Adaptation to climate change integrated assessment modelling of Adaptation Costs and benefits
    2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink, Shardul Agrawala
    Abstract:

    The present report seeks to inform critical questions with regard to policy mixes of investments in Adaptation and mitigation, and how they might vary over time. This is facilitated here by examining Adaptation within global Integrated Assessment Modelling frameworks. None of the existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) captures Adaptation satisfactorily. Many models do not specify the damages from climate change, and those that do mostly assume implicitly that Adaptation is set at an “optimal” level that minimizes the sum total of the Costs of Adaptation and the residual climate damages that might occur. This report develops and applies a framework for the explicit incorporation of Adaptation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It provides a consistent framework to investigate “optimal” balances between investments in mitigating climate change, investments in adapting to climate change and accepting (future) climate change damages. By including Adaptation into IAMs these already powerful tools for policy analysis are further improved and the interactions between mitigation and Adaptation can be analysed in more detail. To demonstrate the approach a framework for incorporating Adaptation as a policy variable was developed for two IAMs– the global Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE) and its regional counterpart, the Regional Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (RICE). These modified models – AD-DICE and AD-RICE – are calibrated and then used in a number of policy simulations to examine the distribution of Adaptation Costs and the interactions between Adaptation and mitigation. Using the limited information available in current models, and calibrating to a specific damage level, so-called Adaptation Cost curves are estimated for the world. Adaptation Cost curves are also estimated for different regions, although given the limited information available to calibrate the regional curves these should be considered as rough approximations of the actual Adaptation potential in the different regions. These Adaptation Cost curves reflect how different Adaptation levels will provide a wedge between gross damages (i.e. damages that would occur in the absence of Adaptation) and residual damages. The analysis presented suggests that a good Adaptation policy matters especially when suboptimal mitigation policies are implemented. Similarly, a good mitigation strategy is more important when optimal Adaptation levels are unattainable. The rationale for this result is that both policy control options can compensate to some extent for deviations from the efficient outcome caused by non-optimality of the other control option. It should be noted, however, that in many cases there are limits to Adaptation with regard to the magnitude and rate of climate change. The higher the current value of damages, the more important mitigation is as a policy option in comparison to Adaptation. The comparison between Adaptation and mitigation therefore depends crucially on the assumptions in the model, and especially on the discount rate and the level of future damages. The policy simulations also suggest that to combat climate change in an efficient way, short term optimal policies would consist of a mixture of substantial investments in Adaptation measures, coupled with investments in mitigation, even though the latter will only decrease damages in the longer term. The Costs of inaction are high, and thus it is more important to start acting on mitigation and Adaptation even when there is limited information on which to base the policies, than to ignore the problems climate change already poses. Ongoing increases in expected damages over time imply that Adaptation is not an option that should be considered only for the coming decades, but it will be necessary to keep investing in Adaptation options, as both the challenges and benefits of Adaptation increase. The results of these policy simulations confirm the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the relationship between Adaptation and mitigation as described in the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The framework developed in this report opens the door for further simulations that examine Adaptation Cost issues within other, more complex IAMs. The model additions investigated in this report can also shed light on how the next generation of IAMs will look. These tools can also be further strengthened by the incorporation of more detailed regional knowledge on the impacts of climate change and of Adaptation options. Le present rapport entend apporter un eclairage sur certaines problematiques essentielles concernant les politiques qui associent investissements dans l’Adaptation et investissements dans l’attenuation et leur evolution possible dans le temps. Un tel objectif suppose d’analyser l’Adaptation dans le cadre de modeles d’evaluation integree. Aucun modele d’evaluation integree ne rend compte de maniere satisfaisante de l’Adaptation. Bon nombre d’entre eux ne tiennent pas compte des dommages causes par le changement climatique et ceux qui le font partent implicitement de l’hypothese que l’Adaptation est fixee a un niveau « optimal » qui reduit au minimum le montant total represente par les couts d’Adaptation et les dommages climatiques residuels risquant d’apparaitre. Dans ce rapport, un cadre permettant d’inclure explicitement l’Adaptation dans les modeles d’evaluation integree a ete cree et applique. On dispose ainsi d’un cadre coherent pour examiner les compromis « optimaux » entre l’attenuation du changement climatique, l’Adaptation au changement climatique et l’acceptation des (futurs) dommages induits par ce changement. Inclure l’Adaptation dans les modeles d’evaluation integree permet d’ameliorer ces instruments, deja performants, d’analyse des politiques et d’examiner de maniere plus precise les interactions entre Adaptation et attenuation. Plus precisement, pour les besoins de ce rapport, un cadre a ete mis au point pour inclure l’Adaptation parmi les variables de politique publique dans deux modeles d’evaluation integree – le Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE), qui est un modele mondial, et son equivalent regional, le Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE). Les modeles modifies – AD-DICE et AD-RICE – ont ete calibres et utilises dans plusieurs simulations de politiques pour examiner la composition des couts de l’Adaptation au changement climatique et les interactions entre Adaptation et attenuation. Les courbes des couts d’Adaptation ont ete estimees a l’echelle mondiale a partir des quelques informations disponibles dans les modeles actuels et apres calibrage en fonction d’un niveau de dommages donne. Les memes courbes ont ete estimees pour differentes regions mais doivent etre considerees comme des evaluations approximatives du potentiel reel d’Adaptation dans ces regions, compte tenu de la rarete des informations disponibles pour effectuer le calibrage. Ces courbes montrent l’ecart que differents niveaux d’Adaptation induisent entre les dommages bruts (ceux qui seraient subis en l’absence de mesures d’Adaptation) et les dommages residuels. L’analyse presentee demontre qu’il importe de mettre en place une bonne politique d’Adaptation, en particulier lorsque les strategies d’attenuation sont d’une efficacite insuffisante. De meme, la mise en place d’une bonne strategie d’attenuation est d’autant plus importante que les niveaux d’Adaptation optimaux sont impossibles a atteindre. Ce resultat s’explique par le fait que l’une et l’autre de ces options peuvent, dans une certaine mesure, compenser les ecarts par rapport au resultat efficient lies a l’insuffisance de l’autre option. Plus la valeur actuelle des dommages est elevee, moins l’Adaptation occupe une place importante par rapport a l’attenuation. L’interet relatif des deux strategies depend beaucoup des hypotheses retenues dans le modele, en particulier en ce qui concerne le taux d’actualisation et le niveau des futurs dommages. Les simulations de politiques montrent egalement que pour, lutter de maniere efficiente contre le changement climatique, les politiques de court terme devraient associer des investissements substantiels dans des mesures d’Adaptation et des investissements dans des mesures d’attenuation, meme si la reduction des dommages induite par les mesures d’attenuation ne concerne que des periodes ulterieures. Le cout de l’inaction etant eleve, il vaut mieux agir meme lorsque l’on dispose de peu d’informations a l’appui de l’elaboration des politiques qu’ignorer les problemes qu’entraine deja le changement climatique. Les dommages attendus augmentant continument au fil du temps, il convient de ne pas considerer que l’Adaptation est une option a n’envisager que dans les decennies a venir et, au contraire, de continuer a investir dans les mesures d’Adaptation puisque les benefices de ces mesures et les problemes qu’elles posent augmentent. Les resultats de ces simulations de politique confirment les conclusions du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’evolution du climat (GIEC) sur la relation entre l’Adaptation et l’attenuation decrite dans le Resume du Quatrieme Rapport d’evaluation. Le cadre elabore dans le present rapport ouvre la voie a d’autres simulations, qui feront appel a des modeles d’evaluation integree plus complexes pour examiner les questions en lien avec les couts de l’Adaptation. Les modeles modifies utilises peuvent egalement fournir des informations sur ce que sera la prochaine generation de modeles d’evaluation integree. Ces outils peuvent aussi etre renforces en integrant des connaissances regionales plus approfondies sur les effets du changement climatique et les options d’Adaptation.

Kit Po Wong - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • multi stage flexible expansion co planning under uncertainties in a combined electricity and gas market
    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2015
    Co-Authors: Jing Qiu, Zhao Yang Dong, Junhua Zhao, Yu Zheng, Kit Po Wong
    Abstract:

    Natural gas is an important fuel source in the power industry. Electricity and natural gas are both energy that can be directly consumed. To improve the overall efficiency of the energy infrastructure, it is imperative that the expansion of gas power plants, electricity transmission lines and gas pipelines can be co-planned. The co-planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem to handle conflicting objectives simultaneously. We propose a novel model to identify the optimal co-expansion plan in terms of social welfare. To evaluate the robustness of plans under different scenarios, the flexibility criterion is used to identify each plan’s Adaptation Cost to uncertainties, such as demand growth, fuel Cost and financial constraints, etc. We developed a systematic and comprehensive planning model to understand, develop and optimize energy grids in order to reach higher social welfare, and is therefore of great importance in terms of supporting and guiding investment decisions for the power and gas industry. Meanwhile, we use the sequential importance sampling (SIS) to perform scenario reduction for achieving a higher computational efficiency. A comprehensive case study on the integrated IEEE 14-bus and a test gas system is conducted to validate our approach.

  • flexible transmission expansion planning with uncertainties in an electricity market
    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2009
    Co-Authors: Junhua Zhao, Zhao Yang Dong, Peter A Lindsay, Kit Po Wong
    Abstract:

    Deregulation of the electric power industry has introduced new uncertainties for market participants and made planning of transmission expansion more difficult. More flexible transmission expansion plans are needed, to cope with the increased risks. In this paper, a novel planning approach is proposed to meet the above challenge. In our approach, the planning process is modeled as a mixed integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem, so that conflicting objectives can be optimized simultaneously. To minimize planning risks, our method identifies several scenarios based on statistics and expert knowledge; the most flexible expansion plan is selected as the plan that has least Adaptation Cost. The proposed method is tested with the IEEE 14-bus system. Promising results are obtained to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Kelly De Bruin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • AD-DICE: an implementation of Adaptation in the DICE model
    Climatic Change, 2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink
    Abstract:

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) have helped us over the past decade to understand the interactions between the environment and the economy in the context of climate change. Although it has also long been recognized that Adaptation is a powerful and necessary tool to combat the adverse effects of climate change, most IAMS have not explicitly included the option of Adaptation in combating climate change. This paper adds to the IAM and climate change literature by explicitly including Adaptation in an IAM, thereby making the trade-offs between Adaptation and mitigation visible. Specifically, a theoretical framework is created and used to implement Adaptation as a decision variable into the DICE model. We use our new AD-DICE model to derive the Adaptation Cost functions implicit in the DICE model. In our set-up, Adaptation and mitigation decisions are separable and AD-DICE can mimic DICE when Adaptation is optimal. We find that our specification of the Adaptation Costs is robust with respect to the mitigation policy scenarios and parameter values. Our numerical results show that Adaptation is a powerful option to combat climate change, as it reduces most of the potential Costs of climate change in earlier periods, while mitigation does so in later periods.

  • economic aspects of Adaptation to climate change integrated assessment modelling of Adaptation Costs and benefits
    Research Papers in Economics, 2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink, Shardul Agrawala
    Abstract:

    The present report seeks to inform critical questions with regard to policy mixes of investments in Adaptation and mitigation, and how they might vary over time. This is facilitated here by examining Adaptation within global Integrated Assessment Modelling frameworks. None of the existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) captures Adaptation satisfactorily. Many models do not specify the damages from climate change, and those that do mostly assume implicitly that Adaptation is set at an “optimal” level that minimizes the sum total of the Costs of Adaptation and the residual climate damages that might occur. This report develops and applies a framework for the explicit incorporation of Adaptation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It provides a consistent framework to investigate “optimal” balances between investments in mitigating climate change, investments in adapting to climate change and accepting (future) climate change damages. By including Adaptation into IAMs these already powerful tools for policy analysis are further improved and the interactions between mitigation and Adaptation can be analysed in more detail. To demonstrate the approach a framework for incorporating Adaptation as a policy variable was developed for two IAMs– the global Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE) and its regional counterpart, the Regional Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (RICE). These modified models – AD-DICE and AD-RICE – are calibrated and then used in a number of policy simulations to examine the distribution of Adaptation Costs and the interactions between Adaptation and mitigation. Using the limited information available in current models, and calibrating to a specific damage level, so-called Adaptation Cost curves are estimated for the world. Adaptation Cost curves are also estimated for different regions, although given the limited information available to calibrate the regional curves these should be considered as rough approximations of the actual Adaptation potential in the different regions. These Adaptation Cost curves reflect how different Adaptation levels will provide a wedge between gross damages (i.e. damages that would occur in the absence of Adaptation) and residual damages. The analysis presented suggests that a good Adaptation policy matters especially when suboptimal mitigation policies are implemented. Similarly, a good mitigation strategy is more important when optimal Adaptation levels are unattainable. The rationale for this result is that both policy control options can compensate to some extent for deviations from the efficient outcome caused by non-optimality of the other control option. It should be noted, however, that in many cases there are limits to Adaptation with regard to the magnitude and rate of climate change. The higher the current value of damages, the more important mitigation is as a policy option in comparison to Adaptation. The comparison between Adaptation and mitigation therefore depends crucially on the assumptions in the model, and especially on the discount rate and the level of future damages. The policy simulations also suggest that to combat climate change in an efficient way, short term optimal policies would consist of a mixture of substantial investments in Adaptation measures, coupled with investments in mitigation, even though the latter will only decrease damages in the longer term. The Costs of inaction are high, and thus it is more important to start acting on mitigation and Adaptation even when there is limited information on which to base the policies, than to ignore the problems climate change already poses. Ongoing increases in expected damages over time imply that Adaptation is not an option that should be considered only for the coming decades, but it will be necessary to keep investing in Adaptation options, as both the challenges and benefits of Adaptation increase. The results of these policy simulations confirm the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the relationship between Adaptation and mitigation as described in the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The framework developed in this report opens the door for further simulations that examine Adaptation Cost issues within other, more complex IAMs. The model additions investigated in this report can also shed light on how the next generation of IAMs will look. These tools can also be further strengthened by the incorporation of more detailed regional knowledge on the impacts of climate change and of Adaptation options.

  • economic aspects of Adaptation to climate change integrated assessment modelling of Adaptation Costs and benefits
    2009
    Co-Authors: Kelly De Bruin, Rob Dellink, Shardul Agrawala
    Abstract:

    The present report seeks to inform critical questions with regard to policy mixes of investments in Adaptation and mitigation, and how they might vary over time. This is facilitated here by examining Adaptation within global Integrated Assessment Modelling frameworks. None of the existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) captures Adaptation satisfactorily. Many models do not specify the damages from climate change, and those that do mostly assume implicitly that Adaptation is set at an “optimal” level that minimizes the sum total of the Costs of Adaptation and the residual climate damages that might occur. This report develops and applies a framework for the explicit incorporation of Adaptation in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). It provides a consistent framework to investigate “optimal” balances between investments in mitigating climate change, investments in adapting to climate change and accepting (future) climate change damages. By including Adaptation into IAMs these already powerful tools for policy analysis are further improved and the interactions between mitigation and Adaptation can be analysed in more detail. To demonstrate the approach a framework for incorporating Adaptation as a policy variable was developed for two IAMs– the global Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE) and its regional counterpart, the Regional Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (RICE). These modified models – AD-DICE and AD-RICE – are calibrated and then used in a number of policy simulations to examine the distribution of Adaptation Costs and the interactions between Adaptation and mitigation. Using the limited information available in current models, and calibrating to a specific damage level, so-called Adaptation Cost curves are estimated for the world. Adaptation Cost curves are also estimated for different regions, although given the limited information available to calibrate the regional curves these should be considered as rough approximations of the actual Adaptation potential in the different regions. These Adaptation Cost curves reflect how different Adaptation levels will provide a wedge between gross damages (i.e. damages that would occur in the absence of Adaptation) and residual damages. The analysis presented suggests that a good Adaptation policy matters especially when suboptimal mitigation policies are implemented. Similarly, a good mitigation strategy is more important when optimal Adaptation levels are unattainable. The rationale for this result is that both policy control options can compensate to some extent for deviations from the efficient outcome caused by non-optimality of the other control option. It should be noted, however, that in many cases there are limits to Adaptation with regard to the magnitude and rate of climate change. The higher the current value of damages, the more important mitigation is as a policy option in comparison to Adaptation. The comparison between Adaptation and mitigation therefore depends crucially on the assumptions in the model, and especially on the discount rate and the level of future damages. The policy simulations also suggest that to combat climate change in an efficient way, short term optimal policies would consist of a mixture of substantial investments in Adaptation measures, coupled with investments in mitigation, even though the latter will only decrease damages in the longer term. The Costs of inaction are high, and thus it is more important to start acting on mitigation and Adaptation even when there is limited information on which to base the policies, than to ignore the problems climate change already poses. Ongoing increases in expected damages over time imply that Adaptation is not an option that should be considered only for the coming decades, but it will be necessary to keep investing in Adaptation options, as both the challenges and benefits of Adaptation increase. The results of these policy simulations confirm the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the relationship between Adaptation and mitigation as described in the Synthesis Report of the Fourth Assessment Report. The framework developed in this report opens the door for further simulations that examine Adaptation Cost issues within other, more complex IAMs. The model additions investigated in this report can also shed light on how the next generation of IAMs will look. These tools can also be further strengthened by the incorporation of more detailed regional knowledge on the impacts of climate change and of Adaptation options. Le present rapport entend apporter un eclairage sur certaines problematiques essentielles concernant les politiques qui associent investissements dans l’Adaptation et investissements dans l’attenuation et leur evolution possible dans le temps. Un tel objectif suppose d’analyser l’Adaptation dans le cadre de modeles d’evaluation integree. Aucun modele d’evaluation integree ne rend compte de maniere satisfaisante de l’Adaptation. Bon nombre d’entre eux ne tiennent pas compte des dommages causes par le changement climatique et ceux qui le font partent implicitement de l’hypothese que l’Adaptation est fixee a un niveau « optimal » qui reduit au minimum le montant total represente par les couts d’Adaptation et les dommages climatiques residuels risquant d’apparaitre. Dans ce rapport, un cadre permettant d’inclure explicitement l’Adaptation dans les modeles d’evaluation integree a ete cree et applique. On dispose ainsi d’un cadre coherent pour examiner les compromis « optimaux » entre l’attenuation du changement climatique, l’Adaptation au changement climatique et l’acceptation des (futurs) dommages induits par ce changement. Inclure l’Adaptation dans les modeles d’evaluation integree permet d’ameliorer ces instruments, deja performants, d’analyse des politiques et d’examiner de maniere plus precise les interactions entre Adaptation et attenuation. Plus precisement, pour les besoins de ce rapport, un cadre a ete mis au point pour inclure l’Adaptation parmi les variables de politique publique dans deux modeles d’evaluation integree – le Dynamic Integrated model for Climate and the Economy (DICE), qui est un modele mondial, et son equivalent regional, le Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE). Les modeles modifies – AD-DICE et AD-RICE – ont ete calibres et utilises dans plusieurs simulations de politiques pour examiner la composition des couts de l’Adaptation au changement climatique et les interactions entre Adaptation et attenuation. Les courbes des couts d’Adaptation ont ete estimees a l’echelle mondiale a partir des quelques informations disponibles dans les modeles actuels et apres calibrage en fonction d’un niveau de dommages donne. Les memes courbes ont ete estimees pour differentes regions mais doivent etre considerees comme des evaluations approximatives du potentiel reel d’Adaptation dans ces regions, compte tenu de la rarete des informations disponibles pour effectuer le calibrage. Ces courbes montrent l’ecart que differents niveaux d’Adaptation induisent entre les dommages bruts (ceux qui seraient subis en l’absence de mesures d’Adaptation) et les dommages residuels. L’analyse presentee demontre qu’il importe de mettre en place une bonne politique d’Adaptation, en particulier lorsque les strategies d’attenuation sont d’une efficacite insuffisante. De meme, la mise en place d’une bonne strategie d’attenuation est d’autant plus importante que les niveaux d’Adaptation optimaux sont impossibles a atteindre. Ce resultat s’explique par le fait que l’une et l’autre de ces options peuvent, dans une certaine mesure, compenser les ecarts par rapport au resultat efficient lies a l’insuffisance de l’autre option. Plus la valeur actuelle des dommages est elevee, moins l’Adaptation occupe une place importante par rapport a l’attenuation. L’interet relatif des deux strategies depend beaucoup des hypotheses retenues dans le modele, en particulier en ce qui concerne le taux d’actualisation et le niveau des futurs dommages. Les simulations de politiques montrent egalement que pour, lutter de maniere efficiente contre le changement climatique, les politiques de court terme devraient associer des investissements substantiels dans des mesures d’Adaptation et des investissements dans des mesures d’attenuation, meme si la reduction des dommages induite par les mesures d’attenuation ne concerne que des periodes ulterieures. Le cout de l’inaction etant eleve, il vaut mieux agir meme lorsque l’on dispose de peu d’informations a l’appui de l’elaboration des politiques qu’ignorer les problemes qu’entraine deja le changement climatique. Les dommages attendus augmentant continument au fil du temps, il convient de ne pas considerer que l’Adaptation est une option a n’envisager que dans les decennies a venir et, au contraire, de continuer a investir dans les mesures d’Adaptation puisque les benefices de ces mesures et les problemes qu’elles posent augmentent. Les resultats de ces simulations de politique confirment les conclusions du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’evolution du climat (GIEC) sur la relation entre l’Adaptation et l’attenuation decrite dans le Resume du Quatrieme Rapport d’evaluation. Le cadre elabore dans le present rapport ouvre la voie a d’autres simulations, qui feront appel a des modeles d’evaluation integree plus complexes pour examiner les questions en lien avec les couts de l’Adaptation. Les modeles modifies utilises peuvent egalement fournir des informations sur ce que sera la prochaine generation de modeles d’evaluation integree. Ces outils peuvent aussi etre renforces en integrant des connaissances regionales plus approfondies sur les effets du changement climatique et les options d’Adaptation.

Mustafa Canim - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Populating Web-Scale Knowledge Graphs Using Distantly Supervised Relation Extraction and Validation
    'MDPI AG', 2021
    Co-Authors: Sarthak Dash, Alfio Gliozzo, Michael R Glass, Mustafa Canim, Gaetano Rossiello
    Abstract:

    In this paper, we propose a fully automated system to extend knowledge graphs using external information from web-scale corpora. The designed system leverages a deep-learning-based technology for relation extraction that can be trained by a distantly supervised approach. In addition, the system uses a deep learning approach for knowledge base completion by utilizing the global structure information of the induced KG to further refine the confidence of the newly discovered relations. The designed system does not require any effort for Adaptation to new languages and domains as it does not use any hand-labeled data, NLP analytics, and inference rules. Our experiments, performed on a popular academic benchmark, demonstrate that the suggested system boosts the performance of relation extraction by a wide margin, reporting error reductions of 50%, resulting in relative improvement of up to 100%. Furthermore, a web-scale experiment conducted to extend DBPedia with knowledge from Common Crawl shows that our system is not only scalable but also does not require any Adaptation Cost, while yielding a substantial accuracy gain

  • populating web scale knowledge graphs using distantly supervised relation extraction and validation
    arXiv: Computation and Language, 2019
    Co-Authors: Alfio Gliozzo, Michael R Glass, Sarthak Dash, Mustafa Canim
    Abstract:

    In this paper, we propose a fully automated system to extend knowledge graphs using external information from web-scale corpora. The designed system leverages a deep learning based technology for relation extraction that can be trained by a distantly supervised approach. In addition to that, the system uses a deep learning approach for knowledge base completion by utilizing the global structure information of the induced KG to further refine the confidence of the newly discovered relations. The designed system does not require any effort for Adaptation to new languages and domains as it does not use any hand-labeled data, NLP analytics and inference rules. Our experiments, performed on a popular academic benchmark demonstrate that the suggested system boosts the performance of relation extraction by a wide margin, reporting error reductions of 50%, resulting in relative improvement of up to 100%. Also, a web-scale experiment conducted to extend DBPedia with knowledge from Common Crawl shows that our system is not only scalable but also does not require any Adaptation Cost, while yielding substantial accuracy gain.

Alfio Gliozzo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Populating Web-Scale Knowledge Graphs Using Distantly Supervised Relation Extraction and Validation
    'MDPI AG', 2021
    Co-Authors: Sarthak Dash, Alfio Gliozzo, Michael R Glass, Mustafa Canim, Gaetano Rossiello
    Abstract:

    In this paper, we propose a fully automated system to extend knowledge graphs using external information from web-scale corpora. The designed system leverages a deep-learning-based technology for relation extraction that can be trained by a distantly supervised approach. In addition, the system uses a deep learning approach for knowledge base completion by utilizing the global structure information of the induced KG to further refine the confidence of the newly discovered relations. The designed system does not require any effort for Adaptation to new languages and domains as it does not use any hand-labeled data, NLP analytics, and inference rules. Our experiments, performed on a popular academic benchmark, demonstrate that the suggested system boosts the performance of relation extraction by a wide margin, reporting error reductions of 50%, resulting in relative improvement of up to 100%. Furthermore, a web-scale experiment conducted to extend DBPedia with knowledge from Common Crawl shows that our system is not only scalable but also does not require any Adaptation Cost, while yielding a substantial accuracy gain

  • populating web scale knowledge graphs using distantly supervised relation extraction and validation
    arXiv: Computation and Language, 2019
    Co-Authors: Alfio Gliozzo, Michael R Glass, Sarthak Dash, Mustafa Canim
    Abstract:

    In this paper, we propose a fully automated system to extend knowledge graphs using external information from web-scale corpora. The designed system leverages a deep learning based technology for relation extraction that can be trained by a distantly supervised approach. In addition to that, the system uses a deep learning approach for knowledge base completion by utilizing the global structure information of the induced KG to further refine the confidence of the newly discovered relations. The designed system does not require any effort for Adaptation to new languages and domains as it does not use any hand-labeled data, NLP analytics and inference rules. Our experiments, performed on a popular academic benchmark demonstrate that the suggested system boosts the performance of relation extraction by a wide margin, reporting error reductions of 50%, resulting in relative improvement of up to 100%. Also, a web-scale experiment conducted to extend DBPedia with knowledge from Common Crawl shows that our system is not only scalable but also does not require any Adaptation Cost, while yielding substantial accuracy gain.