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Samuel Morin – One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts
    Scientific Reports, 2019
    Co-Authors: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Deque, Nicolas Eckert, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin

    Abstract:

    Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant Adaptation Measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986–2005 and below 2 °C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 °C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

  • Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts
    Scientific Reports, 2019
    Co-Authors: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Deque, Nicolas Eckert, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin

    Abstract:

    Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant Adaptation Measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986-2005 and below 2 degrees C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 degrees C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

Pierre Spandre – One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts
    Scientific Reports, 2019
    Co-Authors: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Deque, Nicolas Eckert, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin

    Abstract:

    Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant Adaptation Measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986–2005 and below 2 °C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 °C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

  • Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts
    Scientific Reports, 2019
    Co-Authors: Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Matthieu Lafaysse, Michel Deque, Nicolas Eckert, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin

    Abstract:

    Ski tourism is a major sector of mountain regions economy, which is under the threat of long-term climate change. Snow management, and in particular grooming and artificial snowmaking, has become a routine component of ski resort operations, holding potential for counteracting the detrimental effect of natural snow decline. However, conventional snowmaking can only operate under specific meteorological conditions. Whether snowmaking is a relevant Adaptation Measure under future climate change is a widely debated issue in mountainous regions, with major implications on the supply side of this tourism industry. This often lacks comprehensive scientific studies for informing public and private decisions in this sector. Here we show how climate change influences the operating conditions of one of the main ski tourism markets worldwide, the French Alps. Our study addresses snow reliability in 129 ski resorts in the French Alps in the 21st century, using a dedicated snowpack model explicitly accounting for grooming and snowmaking driven by a large ensemble of adjusted and downscaled regional climate projections, and using a geospatial model of ski resorts organization. A 45% snowmaking fractional coverage, representative of the infrastructures in the early 2020s, is projected to improve snow reliability over grooming-only snow conditions, both during the reference period 1986-2005 and below 2 degrees C global warming since pre-industrial. Beyond 3 degrees C of global warming, with 45% snowmaking coverage, snow conditions would become frequently unreliable and induce higher water requirements.

João A. C. Santos – One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Olive tree irrigation as a climate change Adaptation Measure in Alentejo, Portugal
    Agricultural Water Management, 2020
    Co-Authors: Helder Fraga, Joaquim G. Pinto, João A. C. Santos

    Abstract:

    Abstract Climate change projections for Southern Europe reveal warming and drying trends for the upcoming decades, bringing important challenges to Portuguese olive orchards in particular. We analyzed irrigation as an Adaptation Measure to ensure the future sustainability of olive tree yields in Alentejo, the main olive producing area in Portugal. A dynamic crop model was used to simulate olive tree yields over the baseline (1981–2005) and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, 2021–2080), using a 4 member-ensemble of state-of-the-art climate model chains. Climate change projections point to an increase in mean temperature (of up to 2 °C by 2080) and potential evapotranspiration (40−50 mm), while a decrease in precipitation (-80 to −90 mm) and actual evapotranspiration (-50 to −70 mm), under both future scenarios. Future yield decreases 15–20% (for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and accumulated losses can reach -8 t/ha to −10 t/ha by 2080. This decrease is due to enhanced heat and water stress under future climate conditions. As an Adaptation Measure, irrigation was simulated, but only applied at a certain water stress level. The results indicate higher yields due to this Adaptation strategy, in range with the present values (±1%), thus alleviating the projected yield decreases in the future. The amount of water required for irrigation ranges from 60 to 85 mm, depending on the RCP, which corresponds to 0.6–1 times the projected decrease in precipitation. However, this value can reach up to 2 times for one climate model chain. We conclude that while irrigation is a feasible Adaptation Measure against the threats of climate change in Alentejo olive orchards, this strategy may be threatened by the scarcity of water resources. Outlining appropriate, timely and cost-effective Adaptation Measures is critical for the sustainability of both the environment and the Alentejo olive sector.

  • vineyard mulching as a climate change Adaptation Measure future simulations for alentejo portugal
    Agricultural Systems, 2018
    Co-Authors: Helder Fraga, João A. C. Santos

    Abstract:

    Abstract Climate change projections for the next decades are expected to bring important challenges to the Portuguese viticulture. More specifically, for the wine region of Alentejo, in Southern Portugal, the projected warming and drying are expected to have detrimental impacts on grapevine physiology and ultimately on yields. The present study assesses the Adaptation potential of mulching for maintaining current grapevine yield levels in the region. For this purpose, the STICS process-based crop model was used to simulate future (2021–2080) grapevine yields in the 8 sub-regions of Alentejo (with Denomination of Origin). Several datasets for weather variables, soil characteristics, topographic features and management practices were defined independently for each sub-region. Simulations comprise both non-mulching and mulching experiments over the next 60 years, under the climate change scenario RCP8.5. Although both non-mulching and mulching simulations suggest a gradual yield decrease in the future, mulching mitigates these decreases by 10 to 25%. Furthermore, the results show that mulching can reduce the yield decreasing trend, from −0.75%/year to −0.66%/year. In effect, mulching is expected to provide yield gains over the full simulated time period, being the benefits particularly apparent towards the end of the target period (2061–2080; warmest years of simulation). Mulching is a cost-effective Adaptation Measure that may be easily adopted by growers on the short-term. Nonetheless, this strategy alone might not be enough to fully mitigate yield losses and additional / complementary Measures should be envisioned to warrant the sustainability of the Alentejo winemaking sector under futures climates.

  • Viticultural irrigation demands under climate change scenarios in portugal
    Agricultural Water Management, 2018
    Co-Authors: Helder Fraga, Inaki Garcia De Cortazar Atauri, João A. C. Santos

    Abstract:

    Climate change projections for Southern Europe reveal warming and drying trends for the upcoming decades, bringing important challenges to Portuguese viticulture in particular. The present study analyses irrigation as an Adaptation Measure to ensure the future sustainability of viticultural yields in Portugal. The STICS crop model was used to simulate baseline (1981-2005) and future (2041-2070) grapevine yields in Portugal. Future yield decreases (yields are 60% with respect to baseline) over some of the innermost and most renowned winemaking regions of the country are found, following the decrease of precipitation in the growing season. As an Adaptation Measure, grapevine irrigation was tested for future climates. STICS irrigation replicates a highly efficient water use strategy, only applied when a certain water stress level is reached. The results indicate higher yields with this irrigation strategy, thus largely alleviating the projected yield decreases. Nonetheless, in some warmer and dryer regions, such as inner Alentejo and Douro/Porto, yield levels are still projected to decrease with irrigation (70-80% of baseline yields), though to a lesser extent when compared to non-irrigated simulations. This decrease is attributed to the synergistic effect of severe heat and water stresses in the future. Although these simulations aim at achieving the same yields and alcohol level in future scenarios as in baseline, applying irrigation may modify the wine typicity of each region and threaten the currently scarce water resources. Outlining appropriate, timely and cost-effective Adaptation Measures is critical for the sustainability of both the environment and the national Portuguese winemaking sector.