The Experts below are selected from a list of 18306 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Arnaud Mehl - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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china s dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri polar global currency system
The Economic Journal, 2014Co-Authors: Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud MehlAbstract:This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's ‘dominance hypothesis’, i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old ‘German dominance hypothesis’ which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a Complementary Event study, we find evidence that the renminbi has become a key driver of currency movements in Asia since the mid-2000s, especially since the global financial crisis, in line with China's dominance hypothesis.
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china s dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri polar global currency system
Research Papers in Economics, 2011Co-Authors: Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud MehlAbstract:This paper assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar and centred around the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s" dominance hypothesis", i.e. whether the renminbi is already the dominant currency in Asia, exerting a large influence on exchange rate and monetary policies in the region, a direct reference to the old "German dominance hypothesis" which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s-1990s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a Complementary Event study, we find evidence that the RMB has become a key driver of currency movements in emerging Asia since the mid-2000s, and even more so since the global financial crisis. These results are consistent with China’s dominance hypothesis and with the view that the international monetary system is already tri-polar. However, we also find that China’s currency movements are to some extent affected by those in the rest of Asia.
Marcel Fratzscher - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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china s dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri polar global currency system
The Economic Journal, 2014Co-Authors: Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud MehlAbstract:This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's ‘dominance hypothesis’, i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old ‘German dominance hypothesis’ which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a Complementary Event study, we find evidence that the renminbi has become a key driver of currency movements in Asia since the mid-2000s, especially since the global financial crisis, in line with China's dominance hypothesis.
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china s dominance hypothesis and the emergence of a tri polar global currency system
Research Papers in Economics, 2011Co-Authors: Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud MehlAbstract:This paper assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar and centred around the US dollar, the euro and the Chinese renminbi (RMB). It focuses on what we call China’s" dominance hypothesis", i.e. whether the renminbi is already the dominant currency in Asia, exerting a large influence on exchange rate and monetary policies in the region, a direct reference to the old "German dominance hypothesis" which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s-1990s. Using a global factor model of exchange rates and a Complementary Event study, we find evidence that the RMB has become a key driver of currency movements in emerging Asia since the mid-2000s, and even more so since the global financial crisis. These results are consistent with China’s dominance hypothesis and with the view that the international monetary system is already tri-polar. However, we also find that China’s currency movements are to some extent affected by those in the rest of Asia.
A Pembroke - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an Event based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions high speed enhancements in the wang sheeley arge model
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005Co-Authors: M J Owens, C N Arge, H E Spence, A PembrokeAbstract:[1] One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean-square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A Complementary, Event-based analysis technique is developed in which high-speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed Events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete Events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.
M J Owens - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an Event based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions high speed enhancements in the wang sheeley arge model
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005Co-Authors: M J Owens, C N Arge, H E Spence, A PembrokeAbstract:[1] One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean-square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A Complementary, Event-based analysis technique is developed in which high-speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed Events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete Events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.
C N Arge - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an Event based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions high speed enhancements in the wang sheeley arge model
Journal of Geophysical Research, 2005Co-Authors: M J Owens, C N Arge, H E Spence, A PembrokeAbstract:[1] One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near-Earth space, arising from both quasi-steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean-square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A Complementary, Event-based analysis technique is developed in which high-speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed Events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete Events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.