The Experts below are selected from a list of 2853 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Ian Boardman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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unconfirmed near earth objects
The Astronomical Journal, 2018Co-Authors: P Veres, G V Williams, Matthew J Payne, Matthew J Holman, Davide Farnocchia, Sonia Keys, Ian BoardmanAbstract:We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926 ± 50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H < 22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast-moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.
Granvik Mikael - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Monitoring near-Earth-object discoveries for imminent impactors
'EDP Sciences', 2018Co-Authors: Solin Otto, Granvik MikaelAbstract:Aims. We present an automated system called neoranger that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent impactors to registered users. In addition to potential Earth-impacting objects, neoranger also monitors for other types of interesting objects such as Earth's natural temporarily-captured satellites. Methods. The system monitors the NEOCP for objects with new data and solves, for each object, the orbital inverse problem, which results in a sample of orbits that describes the, typically highly-nonlinear, orbital-element probability density function (PDF). The PDF is propagated forward in time for seven days and the impact probability is computed as the weighted fraction of the sample orbits that impact the Earth. Results. The system correctly predicts the then-imminent impacts of 2008 TC3 and 2014 Lambda Lambda based on the first data sets available. Using the same code and configuration we find that the impact probabilities for objects typically on the NEOCP, based on eight weeks of continuous operations, are always less than one in ten million, whereas simulated and real Earth-impacting asteroids always have an impact probability greater than 10% based on the first two tracklets available.Peer reviewe
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Monitoring near-Earth-object discoveries for imminent impactors
'EDP Sciences', 2018Co-Authors: Solin Otto, Granvik MikaelAbstract:We present an automated system called NEORANGER that regularly computes asteroid-Earth impact probabilities for objects on the Minor Planet Center's (MPC) Near-Earth-Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) and sends out alerts of imminent impactors to registered users. In addition to potential Earth impacting objects NEORANGER also monitors for other types of interesting objects such as Earth's natural temporarily-captured satellites. The system monitors the NEOCP for objects with new data and solves, for each object, the orbital inverse problem which results in a sample of orbits that describes the, typically highly-nonlinear, orbital-element probability-density function (PDF). The PDF is propagated forward in time for 7 days and the impact probability is computed as the weighted fraction of the sample orbits that impact the Earth. The system correctly predicts the then-imminent impacts of 2008 TC3 and 2014 AA based on the first data sets available. Using the same code and configuration we find that the impact probabilities for objects typically on the NEOCP, based on 8 weeks of continuous operations, are always less than 1 in 10 million whereas simulated and real Earth-impacting asteroids always have an impact probability greater than 10% based on the first two tracklets available.Comment: Accepted for Astronomy & Astrophysic
P Veres - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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unconfirmed near earth objects
The Astronomical Journal, 2018Co-Authors: P Veres, G V Williams, Matthew J Payne, Matthew J Holman, Davide Farnocchia, Sonia Keys, Ian BoardmanAbstract:We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926 ± 50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H < 22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast-moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.
G V Williams - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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unconfirmed near earth objects
The Astronomical Journal, 2018Co-Authors: P Veres, G V Williams, Matthew J Payne, Matthew J Holman, Davide Farnocchia, Sonia Keys, Ian BoardmanAbstract:We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926 ± 50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H < 22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast-moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.
Matthew J Payne - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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unconfirmed near earth objects
The Astronomical Journal, 2018Co-Authors: P Veres, G V Williams, Matthew J Payne, Matthew J Holman, Davide Farnocchia, Sonia Keys, Ian BoardmanAbstract:We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926 ± 50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H < 22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast-moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs.