The Experts below are selected from a list of 280632 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Adam Rose - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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economic Consequence Analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions general equilibrium approaches
Energy Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam RoseAbstract:Abstract We develop a stylized two-sector analytical general equilibrium model that elucidates mechanisms of adjustment to widespread, long-duration electric power disruptions. Algebraic solutions illustrate the relative importance of resilience through producer and consumer input substitutability and mitigation investment in backup infrastructure capacity in moderating the economy-wide costs of outages. Simulations of the impacts of a two-week power outage on California's Bay Area economy using both the analytical model and a computational general equilibrium model yield welfare losses that are substantially smaller than stated-preference estimates of willingness to pay. Results highlight the role of resilience in moderating Consequences of energy supply shocks.
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economic Consequence Analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions an analytical general equilibrium approach
Social Science Research Network, 2018Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam RoseAbstract:We develop a stylized two-sector analytical general equilibrium model of regional economic adjustment to widespread long-duration electric power outages. Algebraic solutions highlight the relative importance of costless inherent resilience and deliberate costly investment in backup infrastructure capacity in moderating the economy-wide costs of electricity disruptions. Numerically parameterizing the model to simulate the effects of a two-week power outage on California’s Bay Area economy yields modest welfare losses that are substantially smaller than stated-preference estimates of willingness to pay. The model represents a transparent approach to analyzing the tradeoffs between reliability and resilience in electric power provision and utilization.
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economic Consequence Analysis of the arkstorm scenario
Natural Hazards Review, 2016Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam Rose, Anne WeinAbstract:AbstractThe business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic Consequence Analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajec...
Sergey B Dorofeev - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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cfd modeling and Consequence Analysis of an accidental hydrogen release in a large scale facility
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2014Co-Authors: C R Bauwens, Sergey B DorofeevAbstract:Abstract In this study, the Consequences of an accidental release of hydrogen within large scale, (>15,000 m3), facilities were modeled. To model the hydrogen release, an LES Navier–Stokes CFD solver, called fireFoam, was used to calculate the dispersion and mixing of hydrogen within a large scale facility. The performance of the CFD modeling technique was evaluated through a validation study using experimental results from a 1/6 scale hydrogen release from the literature and a grid sensitivity study. Using the model, a parametric study was performed varying release rates and enclosure sizes and examining the concentrations that develop. The hydrogen dispersion results were then used to calculate the corresponding pressure loads from hydrogen-air deflagrations in the facility.
Valerio Cozzani - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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dynamic Consequence Analysis through computational fluid dynamics modeling
Dynamic Risk Analysis in the Chemical and Petroleum Industry#R##N#Evolution and Interaction with Parallel Disciplines in the Perspective of Industrial, 2016Co-Authors: Gabriele Landucci, M Pontiggia, Nicola Paltrinieri, Valerio CozzaniAbstract:Abstract Consequence assessment in conventional quantitative risk assessment studies is carried out with simplified tools and conservative assumptions, leading to static worst-case representation of the magnitude associated with accidents. Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) models may constitute an advanced tool to analyze dynamic scenarios. CFD models may capture the interaction among the released hazardous substances and the geometry of the surrounding environment, thus allowing for detailed three-dimensional Analysis in the presence of obstacles, bunds, and congested industrial layouts. In this chapter, relevant CFD Consequence assessment studies are collected and discussed, highlighting the key features and advantages with respect to conventional model application. At the same time, possible limitations of CFD models are addressed, providing information for selection between integral models and CFD.
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risk management of domino effects considering dynamic Consequence Analysis
Risk Analysis, 2014Co-Authors: Nima Khakzad, Faisal Khan, Paul Amyotte, Valerio CozzaniAbstract:Domino effects are low-probability high-Consequence accidents causing severe damage to humans, process plants, and the environment. Because domino effects affect large areas and are difficult to control, preventive safety measures have been given priority over mitigative measures. As a result, safety distances and safety inventories have been used as preventive safety measures to reduce the escalation probability of domino effects. However, these safety measures are usually designed considering static accident scenarios. In this study, we show that compared to a static worst-case accident Analysis, a dynamic Consequence Analysis provides a more rational approach for risk assessment and management of domino effects. This study also presents the application of Bayesian networks and conflict Analysis to risk-based allocation of chemical inventories to minimize the Consequences and thus to reduce the escalation probability. It emphasizes the risk management of chemical inventories as an inherent safety measure, particularly in existing process plants where the applicability of other safety measures such as safety distances is limited.
Ian Sue Wing - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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economic Consequence Analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions general equilibrium approaches
Energy Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam RoseAbstract:Abstract We develop a stylized two-sector analytical general equilibrium model that elucidates mechanisms of adjustment to widespread, long-duration electric power disruptions. Algebraic solutions illustrate the relative importance of resilience through producer and consumer input substitutability and mitigation investment in backup infrastructure capacity in moderating the economy-wide costs of outages. Simulations of the impacts of a two-week power outage on California's Bay Area economy using both the analytical model and a computational general equilibrium model yield welfare losses that are substantially smaller than stated-preference estimates of willingness to pay. Results highlight the role of resilience in moderating Consequences of energy supply shocks.
-
economic Consequence Analysis of electric power infrastructure disruptions an analytical general equilibrium approach
Social Science Research Network, 2018Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam RoseAbstract:We develop a stylized two-sector analytical general equilibrium model of regional economic adjustment to widespread long-duration electric power outages. Algebraic solutions highlight the relative importance of costless inherent resilience and deliberate costly investment in backup infrastructure capacity in moderating the economy-wide costs of electricity disruptions. Numerically parameterizing the model to simulate the effects of a two-week power outage on California’s Bay Area economy yields modest welfare losses that are substantially smaller than stated-preference estimates of willingness to pay. The model represents a transparent approach to analyzing the tradeoffs between reliability and resilience in electric power provision and utilization.
-
economic Consequence Analysis of the arkstorm scenario
Natural Hazards Review, 2016Co-Authors: Ian Sue Wing, Adam Rose, Anne WeinAbstract:AbstractThe business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic Consequence Analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajec...
C R Bauwens - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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cfd modeling and Consequence Analysis of an accidental hydrogen release in a large scale facility
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2014Co-Authors: C R Bauwens, Sergey B DorofeevAbstract:Abstract In this study, the Consequences of an accidental release of hydrogen within large scale, (>15,000 m3), facilities were modeled. To model the hydrogen release, an LES Navier–Stokes CFD solver, called fireFoam, was used to calculate the dispersion and mixing of hydrogen within a large scale facility. The performance of the CFD modeling technique was evaluated through a validation study using experimental results from a 1/6 scale hydrogen release from the literature and a grid sensitivity study. Using the model, a parametric study was performed varying release rates and enclosure sizes and examining the concentrations that develop. The hydrogen dispersion results were then used to calculate the corresponding pressure loads from hydrogen-air deflagrations in the facility.