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Jagadeesh Gokhale - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The Consumer Price Index and national saving
    Economic commentary, 1995
    Co-Authors: Michael F. Bryan, Jagadeesh Gokhale
    Abstract:

    An argument that lowering COLAs for Social Security benefits and adjusting the Consumer Price Index to better reflect the cost-of-living increases that result from inflation will alleviate two long-range problems: escalating federal budget deficits and exceedingly low national saving.

  • The Consumer Price Index and National Saving
    Economic commentary, 1995
    Co-Authors: Michael Bryan, Jagadeesh Gokhale
    Abstract:

    Although a majority of U.S. lawmakers now favor the goal of balancing the federal budget within the next decade, there is little consensus on how to achieve it. One current proposal is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be adjusted to better reflect the cost-ofliving increases that result from inflation. If adopted, this measure will not only improve the long-run deficit outlook but, more importantly, will boost the nation's flagging saving rate.

Ji Juan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Michael F. Bryan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Coen Pretorius - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a stochastic estimation framework for components of the south african Consumer Price Index
    South African Journal of Economics, 2009
    Co-Authors: Janine Aron, John Muellbauer, Coen Pretorius
    Abstract:

    Under inflation targeting in South Africa, it is important to monitor and forecast changes in Prices, not only for aggregate measures of the Consumer Price Index, but also its underlying sub-components. Hypotheses about sectoral transmission of policy and shocks are often more specific than hypotheses about overall transmission. This study employs a stochastic framework to estimate richly specified equilibrium correction models, four-quarters-ahead, for the 10 sub-components of the first targeted measure of the Consumer Price Index, CPIX. The stochastic trends are estimated by the Kalman filter, and interpreted as capturing structural breaks and institutional change, a frequent cause of forecast failure. The trends suggest the design of deterministic split trends for use in recursive forecasting models, towards more accurate overall inflation forecasting. This research also has practical use for monetary policy in allowing identification of sectoral sources of inflation.

  • A framework for forecasting the components of the Consumer Price Index
    Development and Comp Systems, 2004
    Co-Authors: Janine Aron, John Muellbauer, Coen Pretorius
    Abstract:

    Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on Consumer Price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the Consumer Price Index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately and forecast, four quarters ahead. The method combines equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form with the use of stochastic trends estimated by the Kalman filter to capture structural breaks and institutional change. This research is of considerable practical use for monetary policy, allowing sectoral sources of inflation to be identified. Aggregating the forecasts of the components with appropriate weights from the overall Index, potentially indicates the gains to be made in forecasting the idiosyncratic sectoral behaviour of Prices, over forecasting the overall Consumer Price Index.

  • A Framework for Forecasting the Components of the Consumer Price Index: application to South Africa
    2004
    Co-Authors: Janine Aron, John Muellbauer, Coen Pretorius
    Abstract:

    Inflation is a far from homogeneous phenomenon, but this fact is ignored in most work on Consumer Price inflation. Using a novel methodology grounded in theory, the ten sub-components of the Consumer Price Index (excluding mortgage interest rates, or CPIX) for South Africa are modeled separately and forecast, four quarters ahead. The method combines equilibrium correction models in a rich multivariate form with the use of stochastic trends estimated by the Kalman filter to capture structural breaks and institutional change. This research is of considerable practical use for monetary policy, allowing sectoral sources of inflation to be identified. Aggregating the forecasts of the components with appropriate weights from the overall Index, potentially indicates the gains to be made in forecasting the idiosyncratic sectoral behaviour of Prices, over forecasting the overall Consumer Price Index.

Brent R. Moulton - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Bias in the Consumer Price Index: What is the Evidence?
    2013
    Co-Authors: Brent R. Moulton
    Abstract:

    Recent research has suggested that the upward bias of the U.S. Consumer Price Index may be significant, and correcting the biases would have important long-run effects on the federal budget deficit. The author describes the sampling procedures used in constructing the Consumer Price Index, and gives simple examples of formula bias and quality adjustment. He then reviews the empirical evidence, attempting to show which biases are reliably estimated and which estimates of bias are based on extrapolation and guesswork. The author discusses possibilities for further research leading to potential improvements in the Consumer Price Index.

  • Working to Improve the Consumer Price Index
    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1998
    Co-Authors: Katharine G. Abraham, John S. Greenlees, Brent R. Moulton
    Abstract:

    In this paper, we first comment on the recent (1996) report of the Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index, appointed by the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, and the recommendations it contains. We then describe some of the initiatives currently underway at the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- some of which were undertaken before the appearance of the Advisory Commission's report, others of which are part of a Consumer Price Index improvement initiative that was included as part of the President's 1998 budget proposal -- which attempted to address the bias issues that were highlighted by the Advisory Commission.