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Hao Wang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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can structural models price default risk evidence from bond and Credit Derivative markets
Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2015Co-Authors: Jan Ericsson, Joel Reneby, Hao WangAbstract:Using a set of structural models, we evaluate the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. In contrast to previous evidence from corporate bond data, Credit default swap (CDS) premia are not systematically underestimated. In fact, one of our studied models has little difficulty on average in predicting their level. For robustness, we perform the same exercise for bond spreads by the same issuers on the same trading date. As expected, bond spreads relative to the treasury curve are systematically underestimated. This is not the case when the swap curve is used as a benchmark, suggesting that previously documented underestimation results may be sensitive to the choice of risk-free rate.
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can structural models price default risk new evidence from bond and Credit Derivative markets
Social Science Research Network, 2005Co-Authors: Jan Ericsson, Joel Reneby, Hao WangAbstract:Using a set of structural models, we evaluate bond yield spreads and the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. Theory predicts that if Credit risk alone explains these two quantities, their magnitudes should be similar. Our findings concur with previous results that bond yield spreads are underestimated. However, this is not systematically the case for CDS premia, which in our dataset are much lower than bond spreads. Furthermore, our results highlight the strong relationship between bond residuals and nondefault proxies, in particular illiquidity. CDS residuals exhibit no such relations. This suggests that the bond spread underestimation by our structural models may not stem from their inability to properly account for default risk, but rather from the importance of the omitted risk factors.
Marco Naldi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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buying protection from and on a Credit Derivative product company
Social Science Research Network, 2008Co-Authors: Marco NaldiAbstract:A number of Credit Derivative product companies (CDPC) have been launched over the past few years, but the well known undercapitalization of their balance sheets has made potential hedgers skeptical about a CDPC's ability to cover its obligations as a protection seller. We argue that the availability of tradeable CDS protection on a CDPC will provide Credit investors with a menu of hedging strategies that would not be available otherwise. Using a Derivative pricing approach, we then propose a few exercises in comparative statics to study the determinants of the cost of CDS protection on a hypothetical CDPC specializing in senior corporate risk. Our findings contain some interesting implications about a CDPC's optimal disclosure policy.
Djerf Adrian - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Värdering av AT1 CoCo-obligationer (eng. Additional Tier-1 Contingent Convertible Bonds) : Trigger risk i ett praktiskt investeringssammanhang
KTH Matematisk statistik, 2020Co-Authors: Djerf AdrianAbstract:Contingent convertible bonds (often referred to as CoCo bonds, or simply CoCos) are a relatively new financial instrument designed to absorb unexpected losses. This instrument became increasingly more common after the financial crisis of 2008, as a way to decrease the risk of insolvency among banks and other financial institutions. In this thesis, we will investigate two mathematical models for valuation of CoCo bonds, known as the Credit Derivative approach and the equity Derivative approach, previously developed by De Spiegeleer and Schoutens [1]. We will investigate how these models can be modified in order to be applied to a large set of bonds available on the market. The effect of parameter alterations will also be studied, in order to determine which parameters that influence the pricing accuracy the most. We reach the conclusion that by estimating market triggers, conversion prices and by computing a continuous interest rate from a discrete rates table, the models are indeed executable on a large set of bonds available on the market. However, these parameter estimations come at the cost of reduced accuracy. In general, both investigated models produces prices which follows the overall movements of the market prices quite well, but at the same time with a relatively large absolute distance from the market prices. In other words, the correlation with the market is often high, but the absolute error (measure by root mean square error) is often large. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters shows that the market trigger is the most influential parameter in both investigated models. The fact that we had to estimate the market trigger in order to be able to price a large number of bonds is believed to be the main cause of reduced accuracy. By utilizing a more bond-specific parameter estimation, the accuracy of the investigated models could most likely be improved. We can conclude that there is a trade-off between being able to price a large set of bonds with a mediocre accuracy, or being able to price a few bonds with high accuracy.Det finansiella instrumentet contingent convertible bond (ofta benämnt CoCo bond, eller endast CoCo) är en relativt ny obligationstyp som används av banker och andra finansiella institutioner för att absorbera oväntade förluster. Instrumentet blev mer vanligt förekommande efter finanskrisen 2008, som ett sätt att minska risken för insolvens. I detta examensarbete undersöker vi två matematiska modeller för värdering av CoCo bonds, nämligen den så kallade Credit Derivative approach och equity Derivative approach, som tidigare har utvecklats av De Spiegeleer och Schoutens [1]. Vi kommer att undersöka hur dessa modeller kan modifieras för att bli applicerbara på ett stort antal obligationer tillgängliga på marknaden. En omfattande parameterstudie kommer att genomföras, för att dra slutsatser kring de mest betydelsefulla parametrarna för prissättningen. Genom att skatta så kallade market triggers, conversion prices och en kontinuerlig ränta är det möjligt att exekvera de undersökta modellerna på ett stort antal obligationer. Dessa skattningar medför dock en viss försämrad noggrannhet. Generellt sett följer priserna från modellerna marknadens rörelser ganska väl, men är samtidigt ganska långt ifrån marknadspriset. Med andra ord är korrelationen hög, men absolutfelet är relativt stort. Parameterstudien visar att parametern som kallas market trigger är mest betydelsefull för prissättningen. Faktumet att vi måste skatta market triggers för att kunna prissätta ett stort antal obligationer tros vara den största anledningen till försämrad noggrannhet. Genom att använda en mer ”obligationsspecifik” skattning av parametrar bör noggrannheten kunna förbättras. I dessa modeller är det en tydlig avvägning mellan att kunna prissätta många obligationer med relativt låg noggrannhet, och att kunna prissätta få obligationer med hög noggrannhet
Jan Ericsson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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can structural models price default risk evidence from bond and Credit Derivative markets
Quarterly Journal of Finance, 2015Co-Authors: Jan Ericsson, Joel Reneby, Hao WangAbstract:Using a set of structural models, we evaluate the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. In contrast to previous evidence from corporate bond data, Credit default swap (CDS) premia are not systematically underestimated. In fact, one of our studied models has little difficulty on average in predicting their level. For robustness, we perform the same exercise for bond spreads by the same issuers on the same trading date. As expected, bond spreads relative to the treasury curve are systematically underestimated. This is not the case when the swap curve is used as a benchmark, suggesting that previously documented underestimation results may be sensitive to the choice of risk-free rate.
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can structural models price default risk new evidence from bond and Credit Derivative markets
Social Science Research Network, 2005Co-Authors: Jan Ericsson, Joel Reneby, Hao WangAbstract:Using a set of structural models, we evaluate bond yield spreads and the price of default protection for a sample of US corporations. Theory predicts that if Credit risk alone explains these two quantities, their magnitudes should be similar. Our findings concur with previous results that bond yield spreads are underestimated. However, this is not systematically the case for CDS premia, which in our dataset are much lower than bond spreads. Furthermore, our results highlight the strong relationship between bond residuals and nondefault proxies, in particular illiquidity. CDS residuals exhibit no such relations. This suggests that the bond spread underestimation by our structural models may not stem from their inability to properly account for default risk, but rather from the importance of the omitted risk factors.
Larsson Karl - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Värdering av AT1 CoCo-obligationer (eng. Additional Tier-1 Contingent Convertible Bonds) : Beaktande av förlängningsrisk
KTH Matematisk statistik, 2020Co-Authors: Larsson KarlAbstract:The investment and financing instrument AT1, or Contingent Convertible bond, has become popular in the post-crisis capital markets, prompting interest and research in the academic world. The instrument's debt definition but equity boosting properties makes it rather extraordinary, and its stochastic features makes multiple mathematical valuation methodologies relevant, especially with regard to the risk of extending the call date of the instrument. With investors still relying on screening tools for valuation, there is an absence of applications using existing mathematical approaches. This report therefore aims to narrow the gap between academia and industry by evaluating the use of such mathematical approaches in a practical investment setting, in particular the Improved Credit Derivative approach and the Extension Premium Relative Value approach shall be examined. Both models strive to account for the extension risk, a commonly disregarded yet critical risk, adding computational challenges to the implementation. Besides from discovering necessary practical adjustments, and their effects, the two pricing approaches are compared in an attempt to confirm their joint purpose of accounting for extension risk. Ending up with varying results consisting of evident offsets for the improved Credit Derivative model but significant correlations in the case of the extension premium model, their individual performance was diverse while the hypothesis of joint behaviour could be dismissed.Investerings- och finansieringsinstrumentet AT1, eller Contingent Convertible bond, har blivit populärt i kapitalmarknaderna efter finanskrisen, vilket lett till intresse och forskning i den akademiska världen. Instrumentets grund som skuld men egenskaper för att tillskjuta eget kapital gör det extraordinärt, och dess stokastiska funktioner öppar upp för flertalet värderingsmetoder, speciellt gällande förlängningsrisken hos datumet för kallning. Eftersom att investerare fortfarande använder sig utav screening-verktyg för värdering finns det endast begränsad forskning rörande användande av matematiska metoder. Denna rapport har därför som mål att minska avståndet mellan den akademiska världen och industrin genom att utvärdera användandet av sådana matematiska metoder för praktiska investeringar, särskillt skall Improved Credit Derivative och Extension Premium Relative Value metoderna användas. Båda modellerna strävar efter att ta hänsyn till förlängningsrisken, en risk vanligtvis bortsedd ifrån men trots det kritisk, vilket tillägger ytterligare beräkningsutmaningar vid implementationen. Bortsätt ifrån att upptäcka praktiska justeringar och dess effekter jämförs de två värderingsmetoderna i ett försök att bekräfta deras gemensamma syfte, att ta hänsyn till förlängningsrisken. Att i slutändan nå blandade resultat besående av uppenbara avvikelser för improved Credit Derivative modellen men starka korrelationer i fallet av extension premium modellen gjorde att man kunde dra slutsatsen att deras individuella prestanda skilde sig medan hypotesen om gemensamt beteende kunde avfärdas