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Olivier Jeanne - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a theory of international Crisis lending and imf conditionality
    A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality, 2008
    Co-Authors: Jeronimo Zettelmeyer, Jonathan D Ostry, Olivier Jeanne
    Abstract:

    We present a framework that clari…es the …nancial role of the IMF, the rationale for conditionality, and the conditions under which IMF-induced moral hazard can arise. In the model, traditional conditionality commits country authorities to undertake Crisis resolution e¤orts, facilitating the return of private capital, and ensuring repayment to the IMF. Nonetheless, moral hazard can arise if there are Crisis externalities across countries (contagion) or if country authorities discount Crisis costs too much relative to the national social optimum, or both. Moral hazard can be avoided by making IMF lending conditional on Crisis Prevention e¤orts— “ex ante” conditionality. We are grateful to Jim Boughton, Rex Ghosh, Alberto Martin, Jaume Ventura, Xavier Vives, and seminar participants at the IMF, Pompeu Fabra University, and IESE Business School for comments and suggestions. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or the EBRD, or the Board and Management of those institutions. yContact: Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University, 454 Mergenthaler Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore MD, 21218; Email: ojeanne@jhu.edu

  • international reserves in emerging market countries too much of a good thing
    Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007
    Co-Authors: Olivier Jeanne
    Abstract:

    WITH INTERNATIONAL reserves four times as large, in terms of their GDP, as in the early 1990s, emerging market countries seem more protected than ever against shocks to their current and capital accounts. Some have argued that this buildup in reserves might be warranted as insurance against the increased volatility of capital flows associated with financial globalization. (1) Others view this development as the unintended consequence of large current account surpluses and suggest that the level of international reserves has become excessive in many of these countries. (2) Do emerging market countries hold too much international reserves, and are there better ways to use those funds? Answering these questions requires a normative benchmark for the optimal level of reserves. I present in this paper a simple welfare-based model of the optimal level of reserves to deal with the risk of capital account crises or of "sudden stops" in capital flows. On the basis of this model, I derive some formulas for the optimal level of reserves and compare them with conventional rules of thumb, such as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule of full coverage of short-term debt. I then calibrate the model for emerging market countries and compare its predictions with the actual data. One lesson from this exercise is that the optimal level of reserves is subject to considerable uncertainty, because it is sensitive to certain parameters that are difficult to measure. The model nevertheless produces ranges of plausible estimates against which the data can be compared. I find that it is not difficult for the model to explain a reserves-GDP ratio on the order of 10 percent for the typical emerging market country (close to the long-run historical average), and that even higher ratios can be justified if one assumes that reserves have a significant role in Crisis Prevention. The levels of reserves observed in many countries in the recent period, in particular in Latin America, are within the range of the model' s predictions. Ultimately, however, the insurance model fails to account for the recent pattern of reserves accumulation in emerging market countries. The reason is that most of the reserves accumulation has taken place in Asian emerging market countries, where the risk of a capital account Crisis seems much too small to justify such levels of self-insurance. The insurance model can account for the reserves accumulation observed in the Asian emerging market countries only if one assumes that the expected cost of a capital account Crisis is unrealistically large (more than 60 percent of GDP for one of the two major types of Crisis examined). The conclusion that most of the current buildup of reserves is not justified by precautionary reasons has some implications for reserves management. There is little reason for countries to invest these funds in the liquid but low-yielding foreign assets in which central banks tend to invest. Rather, reserves should be viewed as a component of domestic external wealth that is managed by the public sector on behalf of the domestic citizenry, taking full advantage of the portfolio diversification opportunities available abroad. Indeed, an increasing number of emerging market countries are transferring a fraction of their reserves to "sovereign wealth funds," mandated to invest in a more diversified way and at a longer horizon than central banks normally do. This is a trend that might take on considerable importance looking forward. The last part of the paper discusses some policy challenges and opportunities implied by the buildup in emerging market countries' "sovereign wealth." I discuss, first, the impact of sovereign wealth diversification on global financial markets, and second, some ways in which this wealth could be used in collective international arrangements--to insure against future crises or to promote financial development. The Buildup in International Reserves The growth in the international reserves of emerging market countries is striking when compared with the contemporaneous trends in reserves in industrial countries (figure 1). …

  • sovereign debt structure for Crisis Prevention
    2005
    Co-Authors: Eduardo Borensztein, Olivier Jeanne, Marcos Chamon, Paolo Mauro, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
    Abstract:

    The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on Crisis resolution. Sovereign Debt Structure for Crisis Prevention seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including Crisis Prevention, international risk-sharing, and facilitating the adjustment of fiscal variables to changes in domestic economic conditions. To that end, this paper considers recently developed analytical approaches to improving sovereign debt structure using existing instruments, and reviews a number of proposals--including the introduction of explicit seniority and GDP-linked instruments--in the sovereign context.

  • sovereign debt structure for Crisis Prevention
    2005
    Co-Authors: Eduardo Borensztein, Olivier Jeanne, Paolo Mauro, Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Marcos Chamon
    Abstract:

    The debate on government debt in the context of possible reforms of the international financial architecture has thus far focused on Crisis resolution. This paper seeks to broaden this debate. It asks how government debt could be structured to pursue other objectives, including Crisis Prevention, international risk-sharing, and facilitating the adjustment of fiscal variables to changes in domestic economic conditions. To that end, the paper considers recently developed analytical approaches to improving sovereign debt structure using existing instruments, and reviews a number of proposals--including the introduction of explicit seniority and GDP-linked instruments--in the sovereign context.

Bruno Allolio - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • epidemiology of adrenal Crisis in chronic adrenal insufficiency the need for new Prevention strategies
    European Journal of Endocrinology, 2010
    Co-Authors: Stefanie Hahner, Danijela Milovanovic, Melanie Loeffler, Benjamin Bleicken, Christiane Drechsler, Martin Fassnacht, Michael Ventz, Marcus Quinkler, Bruno Allolio
    Abstract:

    Objective: Adrenal Crisis (AC) is a life-threatening complication of adrenal insufficiency (AI). Here, we evaluated frequency, causes and risk factors of AC in patients with chronic AI. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 883 patients with AI were contacted by mail. Five-hundred and twenty-six patients agreed to participate and received a disease-specific questionnaire. Results: Four-hundred and forty-four datasets were available for analysis (primary AI (PAI), nZ254; secondary AI (SAI), nZ190). Forty-two percent (PAI 47% and SAI 35%) reported at least one Crisis. Three hundred and eighty-four AC in 6092 patient years were documented (frequency of 6.3 crises/100 patient years). Precipitating causes were mainly gastrointestinal infection and fever (45%) but also other stressful events (e.g. major pain, surgery, psychic distress, heat and pregnancy). Sudden onset of apparently unexplained AC was also reported (PAI 6.6% and SAI 12.7%). Patients with PAI reported more frequent emergency glucocorticoid administration (42.5 vs 28.4%, PZ0.003). Crisis incidence was not influenced by educational status, body mass index, glucocorticoid dose, DHEA treatment, age at diagnosis, hypogonadism, hypothyroidism or GH deficiency. In PAI, patients with concomitant non-endocrine disease were at higher risk of Crisis (odds ratio (OR)Z2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05‐3.89, PZ0.036). In SAI, female sex (ORZ2.18, 95% CI 1.06‐4.5, PZ0.035) and diabetes insipidus (ORZ2.71, 95% CI 1.22‐5.99, PZ0.014) were associated with higher Crisis incidence. Conclusion: AC occurs in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic AI, mainly triggered by infectious disease. Only a limited number of risk factors suitable for targeting Prevention of AC were identified. These findings indicate the need for new concepts of Crisis Prevention in patients with AI.

  • epidemiology of adrenal Crisis in chronic adrenal insufficiency the need for new Prevention strategies
    European Journal of Endocrinology, 2010
    Co-Authors: Stefanie Hahner, Danijela Milovanovic, Melanie Loeffler, Benjamin Bleicken, Christiane Drechsler, Martin Fassnacht, Michael Ventz, Marcus Quinkler, Bruno Allolio
    Abstract:

    Objective: Adrenal Crisis (AC) is a life-threatening complication of adrenal insufficiency (AI). Here, we evaluated frequency, causes and risk factors of AC in patients with chronic AI. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 883 patients with AI were contacted by mail. Five-hundred and twenty-six patients agreed to participate and received a disease-specific questionnaire. Results: Four-hundred and forty-four datasets were available for analysis (primary AI (PAI), nZ254; secondary AI (SAI), nZ190). Forty-two percent (PAI 47% and SAI 35%) reported at least one Crisis. Three hundred and eighty-four AC in 6092 patient years were documented (frequency of 6.3 crises/100 patient years). Precipitating causes were mainly gastrointestinal infection and fever (45%) but also other stressful events (e.g. major pain, surgery, psychic distress, heat and pregnancy). Sudden onset of apparently unexplained AC was also reported (PAI 6.6% and SAI 12.7%). Patients with PAI reported more frequent emergency glucocorticoid administration (42.5 vs 28.4%, PZ0.003). Crisis incidence was not influenced by educational status, body mass index, glucocorticoid dose, DHEA treatment, age at diagnosis, hypogonadism, hypothyroidism or GH deficiency. In PAI, patients with concomitant non-endocrine disease were at higher risk of Crisis (odds ratio (OR)Z2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05‐3.89, PZ0.036). In SAI, female sex (ORZ2.18, 95% CI 1.06‐4.5, PZ0.035) and diabetes insipidus (ORZ2.71, 95% CI 1.22‐5.99, PZ0.014) were associated with higher Crisis incidence. Conclusion: AC occurs in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic AI, mainly triggered by infectious disease. Only a limited number of risk factors suitable for targeting Prevention of AC were identified. These findings indicate the need for new concepts of Crisis Prevention in patients with AI.

Anne O Krueger - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • sovereign debt restructuring messy or messier
    The American Economic Review, 2003
    Co-Authors: Anne O Krueger
    Abstract:

    Ever since the Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid-1990’s, efforts have been underway to find means for more effective Prevention and resolution of currency-financial crises. Much has been done with respect to Crisis Prevention: exchange-rate flexibility is much greater than it was; there is increased transparency and improved oversight of the financial system; and greater attention is paid to unsustainable policy stances. Work continues to strengthen economies’ immunity to crises. However, no matter how much is done, there will inevitably be a Crisis or crises. Much has already been learned with respect to Crisis resolution, and the international financial community is better equipped to cope with crises than was the case earlier. But, as with Prevention, more can be done. One item on the agenda, which should contribute both to Prevention and to resolution, is dealing with unsustainable debt burdens of sovereign nations. Two of the hallmarks of most of the 1990’s crises were, first, the importance of private capital flows, and their reversals, in triggering the crises and in intensifying their severity; and second, the involvement of the financial systems in them. The countries afflicted by these crises were ones that had succeeded in raising per capita incomes and rates of economic growth. That success hinged in significant part on their having put in place economic policies that are conducive to economic growth, including a predictable legal framework, respect for property rights, openness to the international economy, and much more. The fact that the policy framework was generally appropriate implied, among other things, that there were relatively high real returns to investment in these economies. That is of course the main reason why private investors were interested in them. At the same time, capital inflows permitted more rapid development than would otherwise be possible. These associations of high real returns, growth, and appropriate policy stances continue. For these reasons, there is typically a strong stake for emerging markets to maintain international creditworthiness, and policymakers go to great lengths to maintain their international reputations and market standings. An efficient private international capital market benefits both developing countries, which are thereby able to invest more than domestic savings at high real rates of return, and investors in high-income countries, who can realize higher real returns and greater portfolio diversification than they could achieve without these investment opportunities. Because countries are sovereign, their high stakes in maintaining creditworthiness are crucial for attracting international capital flows. This is because foreign creditors do not have the rights they do in domestic courts and hence must have other protections against default on the part of borrowers. This is especially true for sovereign borrowers; international lenders to private entities in emerging markets normally have the same protection as is afforded to domestic lenders. For sovereign borrowing, however, the chief protection foreign creditors have is the losses that would accrue to the sovereign debtor (both directly, through the future reduction in access to international credit markets, and through the effects on private economic activity of a sovereign default) in the event of † Discussants: Guillermo Calvo, InterAmerican Development Bank and University of Maryland; Morris Goldstein, Institute for International Economics; Michael Mussa, Institute for International Economics; Ann Harrison, University of California–Berkeley.

Stefanie Hahner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • epidemiology of adrenal Crisis in chronic adrenal insufficiency the need for new Prevention strategies
    European Journal of Endocrinology, 2010
    Co-Authors: Stefanie Hahner, Danijela Milovanovic, Melanie Loeffler, Benjamin Bleicken, Christiane Drechsler, Martin Fassnacht, Michael Ventz, Marcus Quinkler, Bruno Allolio
    Abstract:

    Objective: Adrenal Crisis (AC) is a life-threatening complication of adrenal insufficiency (AI). Here, we evaluated frequency, causes and risk factors of AC in patients with chronic AI. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 883 patients with AI were contacted by mail. Five-hundred and twenty-six patients agreed to participate and received a disease-specific questionnaire. Results: Four-hundred and forty-four datasets were available for analysis (primary AI (PAI), nZ254; secondary AI (SAI), nZ190). Forty-two percent (PAI 47% and SAI 35%) reported at least one Crisis. Three hundred and eighty-four AC in 6092 patient years were documented (frequency of 6.3 crises/100 patient years). Precipitating causes were mainly gastrointestinal infection and fever (45%) but also other stressful events (e.g. major pain, surgery, psychic distress, heat and pregnancy). Sudden onset of apparently unexplained AC was also reported (PAI 6.6% and SAI 12.7%). Patients with PAI reported more frequent emergency glucocorticoid administration (42.5 vs 28.4%, PZ0.003). Crisis incidence was not influenced by educational status, body mass index, glucocorticoid dose, DHEA treatment, age at diagnosis, hypogonadism, hypothyroidism or GH deficiency. In PAI, patients with concomitant non-endocrine disease were at higher risk of Crisis (odds ratio (OR)Z2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05‐3.89, PZ0.036). In SAI, female sex (ORZ2.18, 95% CI 1.06‐4.5, PZ0.035) and diabetes insipidus (ORZ2.71, 95% CI 1.22‐5.99, PZ0.014) were associated with higher Crisis incidence. Conclusion: AC occurs in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic AI, mainly triggered by infectious disease. Only a limited number of risk factors suitable for targeting Prevention of AC were identified. These findings indicate the need for new concepts of Crisis Prevention in patients with AI.

  • epidemiology of adrenal Crisis in chronic adrenal insufficiency the need for new Prevention strategies
    European Journal of Endocrinology, 2010
    Co-Authors: Stefanie Hahner, Danijela Milovanovic, Melanie Loeffler, Benjamin Bleicken, Christiane Drechsler, Martin Fassnacht, Michael Ventz, Marcus Quinkler, Bruno Allolio
    Abstract:

    Objective: Adrenal Crisis (AC) is a life-threatening complication of adrenal insufficiency (AI). Here, we evaluated frequency, causes and risk factors of AC in patients with chronic AI. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, 883 patients with AI were contacted by mail. Five-hundred and twenty-six patients agreed to participate and received a disease-specific questionnaire. Results: Four-hundred and forty-four datasets were available for analysis (primary AI (PAI), nZ254; secondary AI (SAI), nZ190). Forty-two percent (PAI 47% and SAI 35%) reported at least one Crisis. Three hundred and eighty-four AC in 6092 patient years were documented (frequency of 6.3 crises/100 patient years). Precipitating causes were mainly gastrointestinal infection and fever (45%) but also other stressful events (e.g. major pain, surgery, psychic distress, heat and pregnancy). Sudden onset of apparently unexplained AC was also reported (PAI 6.6% and SAI 12.7%). Patients with PAI reported more frequent emergency glucocorticoid administration (42.5 vs 28.4%, PZ0.003). Crisis incidence was not influenced by educational status, body mass index, glucocorticoid dose, DHEA treatment, age at diagnosis, hypogonadism, hypothyroidism or GH deficiency. In PAI, patients with concomitant non-endocrine disease were at higher risk of Crisis (odds ratio (OR)Z2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05‐3.89, PZ0.036). In SAI, female sex (ORZ2.18, 95% CI 1.06‐4.5, PZ0.035) and diabetes insipidus (ORZ2.71, 95% CI 1.22‐5.99, PZ0.014) were associated with higher Crisis incidence. Conclusion: AC occurs in a substantial proportion of patients with chronic AI, mainly triggered by infectious disease. Only a limited number of risk factors suitable for targeting Prevention of AC were identified. These findings indicate the need for new concepts of Crisis Prevention in patients with AI.

Mark Sherlock - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.