The Experts below are selected from a list of 287475 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
C. M. Kishtawal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of Damage Potential
Climatic Change, 2015Co-Authors: James M. Done, Debasish Paimazumder, Erin Towler, C. M. KishtawalAbstract:An index of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) Damage Potential due to winds and coastal surge is developed using seasonal climate variables of relative sea surface temperature and steering flow. These climate variables are proxies for the key damaging TC parameters of intensity, size, and forward speed that constitute an existing cyclone Damage Potential index. This climate-based approach has the advantage of sidestepping the need for data on individual TCs and explains 48 % of the variance in historical cyclone Damage Potential. The merit of the cyclone Damage Potential is in assessments relative to past events or past periods, and may be translated to actual Damage using relationships between the Damage Potential index and specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics. Spread in the change in Damage Potential over the 21st century among climate simulations under representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 is found to be less than the spread due to internal variability, as assessed using a climate model initial condition large ensemble. This study highlights the importance of accounting for internal climate variability in future climate impact assessments.
John R. Ashbaugh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Highway Network Bridge Fatigue Damage Potential of Special Truck Configurations
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2000Co-Authors: Jeffrey A. Laman, John R. AshbaughAbstract:A study of the fatigue Damage Potential of special truck configurations was conducted to facilitate informed decisions by state transportation agencies in considering various truck size and weight and permit policies as well as to provide relative Damage information that will be useful in ongoing network Damage evaluations. The primary objective was to evaluate 78 existing common and FHWA-proposed truck configurations for relative fatigue Damage Potential. To accomplish this objective, an analytical fatigue evaluation tool was developed to determine the relative fatigue Damage induced in highway network bridges by simulation of a highway fleet mix database crossing actual bridges modeled analytically. Additional objectives were to evaluate the influence of impact values and endurance limits used for a fatigue analysis. The semicontinuum analysis method, the Palmgren-Miner hypothesis, and the rain-flow cycle counting algorithm are incorporated. A 39-bridge database statistically selected as representative of bridges in the United States allowed a network level fatigue analysis of several hundred fatigue-prone details. Seventy-eight special truck configurations were studied, 25 of which were developed by FHWA as part of the comprehensive truck size and weight study. The remaining 53 vehicles were taken from the Turner proposal, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Canada, military, AASHTO, and other sources. It was found that fatigue Damage Potential is primarily a function of axle weight, spacing, and vehicle length instead of gross vehicle weight.
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Highway network bridge fatigue Damage Potential of special truck configurations
Transportation Research Record, 2000Co-Authors: Jeffrey A. Laman, John R. AshbaughAbstract:A study of the fatigue Damage Potential of special truck configurations was conducted to facilitate informed decisions by state transportation agencies in considering various truck size and weight and permit policies as well as to provide relative Damage information that will be useful in ongoing network Damage evaluations. The primary objective was to evaluate 78 existing common and FHWA-proposed truck configurations for relative fatigue Damage Potential. To accomplish this objective, an analytical fatigue evaluation tool was developed to determine the relative fatigue Damage induced in highway network bridges by simulation of a highway fleet mix database crossing actual bridges modeled analytically. Additional objectives were to evaluate the influence of impact values and endurance limits used for a fatigue analysis. The semicontinuum analysis method, the Palmgren-Miner hypothesis, and the rain-flow cycle counting algorithm are incorporated. A 39-bridge database statistically selected as representative ...
James M. Done - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Global Tropical Cyclone Damage Potential
Hurricane Risk, 2019Co-Authors: Greg J. Holland, James M. Done, Rowan Douglas, Geoffrey R. SavilleAbstract:An approach to assessing the Damage Potential of tropical cyclones (TCs) is developed using a combination of physical reasoning and results of previous studies. The key TC Damage parameters of intensity, size, and translational speed are incorporated into a single index of Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP). The CDP is developed to represent offshore wind, wave, and current Damage. Further testing is needed to establish the importance of each TC parameter for onshore wind and coastal surge Damage. The CDP is applicable to individual TCs and to seasonal, global, and climatological assessments. Global climatological summaries reveal high Damage Potential pathways and the dominant contribution of the Northwest Pacific to total global Damage Potential. Assessing actual impact requires an additional step of combining the CDP with an exposure and vulnerability assessment derived from a range of local factors.
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Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of Damage Potential
Climatic Change, 2015Co-Authors: James M. Done, Debasish Paimazumder, Erin Towler, C. M. KishtawalAbstract:An index of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) Damage Potential due to winds and coastal surge is developed using seasonal climate variables of relative sea surface temperature and steering flow. These climate variables are proxies for the key damaging TC parameters of intensity, size, and forward speed that constitute an existing cyclone Damage Potential index. This climate-based approach has the advantage of sidestepping the need for data on individual TCs and explains 48 % of the variance in historical cyclone Damage Potential. The merit of the cyclone Damage Potential is in assessments relative to past events or past periods, and may be translated to actual Damage using relationships between the Damage Potential index and specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics. Spread in the change in Damage Potential over the 21st century among climate simulations under representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 is found to be less than the spread due to internal variability, as assessed using a climate model initial condition large ensemble. This study highlights the importance of accounting for internal climate variability in future climate impact assessments.
Margreth Keiler - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Natural hazard risk depending on the variability of Damage Potential
Risk Analysis V: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation, 2006Co-Authors: Sven Fuchs, Margreth KeilerAbstract:In recent years, risk analysis has emerged as the appropriate method to assess natural hazards in mountain regions. The methodology is comparatively reliable in determining the hazard Potential and the related probability of occurrence of defined design events, even if modelling approaches differ. So far, little attention has been given to the Damage Potential affected by those design events, especially concerning temporal changes. The Damage Potential, particularly the tangible asset, is subject to long-term changes due to the socio-economic development of mountain regions since the outgoing 19 century. These longterm changes have led to variations in the resulting risk, dependent on the dimension of the individual hazard impact. Due to seasonal and diurnal variability of intangibles, short-term changes of Damage Potential interfere with those long-term developments. Since intangibles form an essential part of Damage Potential, significant differences in the values at risk could be observed. In this study, long-term as well as short-term shifts in the values at risk are presented for different study areas and on different scales. A conceptual framework for the consideration of those changes in risk analyses is developed, and possible explanations for different trends in different study areas are discussed. The spatial sensitivity of the results is highlighted.
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The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of Damage Potential
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2005Co-Authors: Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, Andreas Paul Zischg, Michael BründlAbstract:Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in Damage Potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in Damage Potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtur (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the Damage Potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in Damage Potential.
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Temporal variability of Damage Potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2005Co-Authors: Andreas Paul Zischg, Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, Johann StötterAbstract:Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard Potential and the Damage Potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the Damage Potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard Potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the Damage Potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.
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Avalanche related Damage Potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2005Co-Authors: Margreth Keiler, Sven Fuchs, Andreas Paul Zischg, M. Hama, Johann StötterAbstract:Abstract. When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the Damage Potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the Damage Potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly Damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of Damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galtur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the Damage Potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The Potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated Damage Potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.
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Development of the Damage Potential resulting from avalanche risk in the period 1950-2000, case study Galtür
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2004Co-Authors: Margreth KeilerAbstract:The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical pro- cesses and the Damage Potential. Even though the Damage Potential has been taken into account more frequently, quan- tifying statements are still missing. This study presents a detailed recording of the Damage Potential in the study area and describes the development of the Damage Potential since 1950 in decades. In the community, the increase of the num- ber of buildings and their values is above average of the re- gion. 37% of the existing buildings are located in legally de- clared avalanche hazard zones. In these areas, the probability of presence of persons increased considerably due to tourism activities and shows substantial seasonal fluctuations. If the analysis of the Damage Potential and the hazard estimation are performed with the same degree of precision, risk analy- sis and risk management will be improved significantly.
Sven Fuchs - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Natural hazard risk depending on the variability of Damage Potential
Risk Analysis V: Simulation and Hazard Mitigation, 2006Co-Authors: Sven Fuchs, Margreth KeilerAbstract:In recent years, risk analysis has emerged as the appropriate method to assess natural hazards in mountain regions. The methodology is comparatively reliable in determining the hazard Potential and the related probability of occurrence of defined design events, even if modelling approaches differ. So far, little attention has been given to the Damage Potential affected by those design events, especially concerning temporal changes. The Damage Potential, particularly the tangible asset, is subject to long-term changes due to the socio-economic development of mountain regions since the outgoing 19 century. These longterm changes have led to variations in the resulting risk, dependent on the dimension of the individual hazard impact. Due to seasonal and diurnal variability of intangibles, short-term changes of Damage Potential interfere with those long-term developments. Since intangibles form an essential part of Damage Potential, significant differences in the values at risk could be observed. In this study, long-term as well as short-term shifts in the values at risk are presented for different study areas and on different scales. A conceptual framework for the consideration of those changes in risk analyses is developed, and possible explanations for different trends in different study areas are discussed. The spatial sensitivity of the results is highlighted.
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The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of Damage Potential
Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2005Co-Authors: Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, Andreas Paul Zischg, Michael BründlAbstract:Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in Damage Potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in Damage Potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtur (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the Damage Potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in Damage Potential.
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Temporal variability of Damage Potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2005Co-Authors: Andreas Paul Zischg, Sven Fuchs, Margreth Keiler, Johann StötterAbstract:Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard Potential and the Damage Potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the Damage Potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard Potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the Damage Potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.
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Avalanche related Damage Potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2005Co-Authors: Margreth Keiler, Sven Fuchs, Andreas Paul Zischg, M. Hama, Johann StötterAbstract:Abstract. When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the Damage Potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the Damage Potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly Damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of Damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galtur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the Damage Potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The Potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated Damage Potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.
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Damage Potential and Losses Resulting from Snow Avalanches in Settlements of the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland
Natural Hazards, 2005Co-Authors: Sven Fuchs, Michael BründlAbstract:In the field of natural hazards, risk is usually expressed as a function of probability of occurrence and Damage Potential. A key factor in the development of avalanche risk is a change in Damage Potential. In this paper, the development of Damage Potential and losses is analysed for settlements in the canton of Grisons, Switzerland for the period between 1950 and 2000. The spatial development patterns of the residential population and the insured value of buildings on a municipal level are described. These patterns are overlain by an accentuated occurrence of avalanches that caused Damage to buildings. Extensive results from areas threatened by avalanches in the municipality of Davos are presented. Although the natural avalanche activity remained constant during the last decades, the total amount of Damage decreased due to mitigation measures. The example of the municipality of Davos shows that mitigation measures are able to compensate an increase of tangible assets which leads to a reduced avalanche risk compared to earlier decades.
