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Matthias Holschneider - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the maximum possible and the maximum expected Earthquake Magnitude for production induced Earthquakes at the gas field in groningen the netherlands
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016Co-Authors: Gert Zöller, Matthias HolschneiderAbstract:Abstract The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production‐induced Earthquakes, because no Earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing Earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012 M w 3.6 Huizinge Earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum Earthquake Magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state‐of‐the‐art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude m max . Second, we calculate the maximum expected Magnitude M T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas‐production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m max 4.4, whereas M T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
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The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016Co-Authors: Gert Zöller, Matthias HolschneiderAbstract:Abstract The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production‐induced Earthquakes, because no Earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing Earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012 M w 3.6 Huizinge Earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum Earthquake Magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state‐of‐the‐art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude m max . Second, we calculate the maximum expected Magnitude M T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas‐production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m max 4.4, whereas M T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
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Can we test for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2014Co-Authors: Matthias Holschneider, Gert Zöller, Robert Alan Clements, Danijel SchorlemmerAbstract:We explore the concept of maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude, M, in a region represented by an Earthquake catalog from the viewpoint of statistical testing. For this aim, we assume that Earthquake Magnitudes are independent events that follow a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution and focus on the upper truncation M. In earlier work, it has been shown that the value of M cannot be well constrained from Earthquake catalogs alone. However, for two hypothesized values M and M′, alternative statistical tests may address the question: Which value is more consistent with the data? In other words, is it possible to reject a Magnitude within reasonable errors, i.e., the error of the first and the error of the second kind? The results for realistic settings indicate that either the error of the first kind or the error of the second kind is intolerably large. We conclude that it is essentially impossible to infer M in terms of alternative testing with sufficient confidence from an Earthquake catalog alone, even in regions like Japan with excellent data availability. These findings are also valid for frequency-Magnitude distributions with different tail behavior, e.g., exponential tapering. Finally, we emphasize that different data may only be useful to provide additional constraints for M, if they do not correlate with the Earthquake catalog, i.e., if they have not been recorded in the same observational period. In particular, long-term geological assessments might be suitable to reduce the errors, while GPS measurements provide overall the same information as the catalogs.
RM Allen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Automatic detection and rapid determination of Earthquake Magnitude by wavelet multiscale analysis of the primary arrival
Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2006Co-Authors: RM AllenAbstract:Earthquake early warning systems must save lives. It is of great importance that networked systems of seismometers be equipped with reliable tools to make rapid determinations of Earthquake Magnitude in the few to tens of seconds before the damaging ground motion occurs. A new fully automated algorithm based on the discrete wavelet transform detects as well as analyzes the incoming first arrival with great accuracy and precision, estimating the final Magnitude to within a single unit from the first few seconds of the P wave.
Gert Zöller - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the maximum possible and the maximum expected Earthquake Magnitude for production induced Earthquakes at the gas field in groningen the netherlands
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016Co-Authors: Gert Zöller, Matthias HolschneiderAbstract:Abstract The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production‐induced Earthquakes, because no Earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing Earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012 M w 3.6 Huizinge Earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum Earthquake Magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state‐of‐the‐art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude m max . Second, we calculate the maximum expected Magnitude M T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas‐production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m max 4.4, whereas M T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
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The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production‐Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016Co-Authors: Gert Zöller, Matthias HolschneiderAbstract:Abstract The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production‐induced Earthquakes, because no Earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing Earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012 M w 3.6 Huizinge Earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum Earthquake Magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state‐of‐the‐art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude m max . Second, we calculate the maximum expected Magnitude M T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas‐production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90% confidence level, we suggest a value of m max 4.4, whereas M T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.
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Can we test for the maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2014Co-Authors: Matthias Holschneider, Gert Zöller, Robert Alan Clements, Danijel SchorlemmerAbstract:We explore the concept of maximum possible Earthquake Magnitude, M, in a region represented by an Earthquake catalog from the viewpoint of statistical testing. For this aim, we assume that Earthquake Magnitudes are independent events that follow a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution and focus on the upper truncation M. In earlier work, it has been shown that the value of M cannot be well constrained from Earthquake catalogs alone. However, for two hypothesized values M and M′, alternative statistical tests may address the question: Which value is more consistent with the data? In other words, is it possible to reject a Magnitude within reasonable errors, i.e., the error of the first and the error of the second kind? The results for realistic settings indicate that either the error of the first kind or the error of the second kind is intolerably large. We conclude that it is essentially impossible to infer M in terms of alternative testing with sufficient confidence from an Earthquake catalog alone, even in regions like Japan with excellent data availability. These findings are also valid for frequency-Magnitude distributions with different tail behavior, e.g., exponential tapering. Finally, we emphasize that different data may only be useful to provide additional constraints for M, if they do not correlate with the Earthquake catalog, i.e., if they have not been recorded in the same observational period. In particular, long-term geological assessments might be suitable to reduce the errors, while GPS measurements provide overall the same information as the catalogs.
Emile A. Okal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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rapid determination of Earthquake Magnitude using gps for tsunami warning systems
Geophysical Research Letters, 2006Co-Authors: Geoffrey Blewitt, Corne Kreemer, William C Hammond, Hans-peter Plag, Seth Stein, Emile A. OkalAbstract:[1] The 26 December 2004 Sumatra Earthquake (Mw 9.2–9.3) generated the most deadly tsunami in history. Yet within the first hour, the true danger of a major oceanwide tsunami was not indicated by seismic Magnitude estimates, which were far too low (Mw 8.0–8.5). This problem relates to the inherent saturation of early seismic-wave methods. Here we show that the Earthquake's true size and tsunami potential can be determined using Global Positioning System (GPS) data up to only 15 min after Earthquake initiation, by tracking the mean displacement of the Earth's surface associated with the arrival of seismic waves. Within minutes, displacements of >10 mm are detectable as far away as India, consistent with results using weeks of data after the event. These displacements imply Mw 9.0 ± 0.1, indicating a high tsunami potential. This suggests existing GPS infrastructure could be developed into an effective component of tsunami warning systems.
F Vallianatos - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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wavelet based rapid estimation of Earthquake Magnitude oriented to early warning
IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 2013Co-Authors: George Hloupis, F VallianatosAbstract:The main goal of an Earthquake early warning system (EEWS) is to estimate the Magnitude of an underway rupture from the first few seconds in order to allow hazard assessment and mitigation before destructive events occur. This letter investigates the application of a wavelet-based algorithm for local Magnitude estimation in the South Aegean Sea (focusing on Crete Island) which is covered by a sparse seismological network. A relation between the first few seconds of the first-arriving energy at the surface, the P wave, and the local Magnitude of the Earthquake has been developed for the area of interest. Results show that the errors produced by the proposed method present less scattering than relevant Magnitude rapid estimation methods. It is the first time that such a method is applied in a sparse seismological network since all the previous studies took place in high-density networks. This fact expands the applicability of EEWS and also provides an alternative Magnitude estimator for the currently developed EEWS.
