The Experts below are selected from a list of 35502 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Firat Demir - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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capital market imperfections and financialization of real sectors in emerging markets private Investment and cash flow relationship revisited
World Development, 2009Co-Authors: Firat DemirAbstract:Summary The paper analyzes the impacts of cash flow from multiple Investments in real and financial sectors on the new Fixed Investment spending of real sector firms. The empirical results based on the Euler equation approach and semi-annual firm level data from two major emerging markets, Mexico and Turkey, suggest that profits and rates of returns from Fixed and financial assets have differential effects on Fixed Investment spending of real sector firms. Accordingly, increasing availability and accessibility of alternative Investment opportunities in financial markets can become instrumental in channeling real sector savings to short-term financial Investments instead of long-term Fixed capital formation and thus lead to deindustrialization.
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financial liberalization private Investment and portfolio choice financialization of real sectors in emerging markets
Journal of Development Economics, 2009Co-Authors: Firat DemirAbstract:Abstract Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and Fixed Investments under uncertainty on real Investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low Fixed Investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term Fixed Investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial Investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy. The empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant Fixed Investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial Investments.
Tricia Coxwell Snyder - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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residential Fixed Investment and the macroeconomy has deregulation altered key relationships
Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2003Co-Authors: Jean Gauger, Tricia Coxwell SnyderAbstract:Financial deregulation in 1980 potentially altered key relationships between residential Fixed Investment (RFI) and key macroeconomic variables. This study uses a vector error correction model to examine relationships between RFI, money, interest rates, and output in pre-deregulation and post-deregulation sub-periods. Results indicate short-term interest rate shocks account for much of RFI variability pre-deregulation. After deregulation, long-term FHA interest rate shocks better account for RFI movements. Results also show that, in the post-deregulation era, RFI shocks have increased predictive power for overall gross domestic product movements. Thus, the study finds altered relationships between RFI and macroeconomic variables.
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residential Fixed Investment and the macroeconomy has deregulation altered key relationships
Social Science Research Network, 2003Co-Authors: Jean Gauger, Tricia Coxwell SnyderAbstract:Financial deregulation in 1980 potentially altered key relationships between residential Fixed Investment and key macroeconomic variables. This study uses a vector error correction model (VECM) to examine relationships between residential Fixed Investment, money, interest rates, and output in pre-deregulation and post-deregulation sub-periods. Results indicate short-term interest rate shocks account for much of RFI variability pre-deregulation. After deregulation, long-term FHA interest rate shocks better account for RFI movements. Results also show that, in the post-deregulation era, residential Fixed Investment shocks have increased predictive power for overall GDP movements. Thus, the study finds altered relationships between residential Fixed Investment and macroeconomic variables.
Mehmet Balcilar - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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forecasting us real private residential Fixed Investment using a large number of predictors
Empirical Economics, 2016Co-Authors: Goodness C Aye, Stephen M Miller, Rangan Gupta, Mehmet BalcilarAbstract:This paper employs classical bivariate, slab-and-spike variable selection, Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage, and factor-augmented predictive regression models to forecast US real private residential Fixed Investment over an out-of-sample period from 1983Q1 to 2005Q4, based on in-sample estimates for 1963Q1–1982Q4. Both large-scale (188 macroeconomic series) and small-scale (20 macroeconomic series) slab-and-spike variable selection, and Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage, and factor-augmented predictive regressions, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential Investment. We evaluate the ex post out-of-sample forecast performance of the 26 models using the relative average mean square error for one-, two-, four-, and eight-quarter-ahead forecasts and test their significance based on the McCracken (2004, J Econom 140:719–752, 2007) mean-square-error F statistic. We find that, on average, the slab-and-spike variable selection and Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage models with 188 variables provides the best forecasts among all the models. Finally, we use these two models to predict the relevant turning points of the residential Investment, via an ex ante forecast exercise from 2006Q1 to 2012Q4. The 188 variable slab-and-spike variable selection and Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage models perform quite similarly in their accuracy of forecasting the turning points. Our results suggest that economy-wide factors, in addition to specific housing market variables, prove important when forecasting in the real estate market.
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forecasting us real private residential Fixed Investment using a large number of predictors
Social Science Research Network, 2014Co-Authors: Goodness C Aye, Stephen M Miller, Rangan Gupta, Mehmet BalcilarAbstract:This paper employs classical bivariate, factor augmented (FA), slab-and-spike variable selection (SSVS)-based, and Bayesian semi-parametric shrinkage (BSS)-based predictive regression models to forecast US real private residential Fixed Investment over an out-of-sample period from 1983:Q1 to 2011:Q2, based on an in-sample estimates for 1963:Q1 to 1982:Q4. Both large-scale (188 macroeconomic series) and small-scale (20 macroeconomic series) FA, SSVS, and BSS predictive regressions, as well as 20 bivariate regression models, capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential Investment. We evaluate the ex-post out-of-sample forecast performance of the 26 models using the relative average Mean Square Error for one-, two-, four-, and eight-quarters-ahead forecasts and test their significance based on the McCracken (2004, 2007) MSE-F statistic. We find that, on average, the SSVS-Large model provides the best forecasts amongst all the models. We also find that one of the individual regression models, using house for sale (H4SALE) as a predictor, performs best at the four- and eight-quarters-ahead horizons. Finally, we use these two models to predict the relevant turning points of the residential Investment, via an ex-ante forecast exercise from 2011:Q3 to 2012:Q4. The SSVS-Large model forecasts the turning points more accurately, although the H4SALE model does better toward the end of the sample. Our results suggest that economy-wide factors, in addition to specific housing market variables, prove important when forecasting in the real estate market.
Kevin A Hassett - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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tax policy and Investment
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1996Co-Authors: Kevin A Hassett, Glenn R HubbardAbstract:In this paper, we summarize recent advances in the study of effects of tax policy on the Fixed Investment decisions of firms. We attempt to identify consensus where it has been achieved and to highlight important unresolved issues. In addition, we discuss the implications of recent findings for the analysis of policy options, and discuss arguments for and against long-run tax policy that favors business Investment spending.
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tax policy and business Fixed Investment in the united states
Journal of Public Economics, 1992Co-Authors: Alan J Auerbach, Kevin A HassettAbstract:Abstract This paper derives and estimates models of nonresidential Investment behavior in which current and future tax conditions directly affect the incentive to invest. The estimates suggest that taxes have played an independent role in affecting postwar U.S. Investment behavior, particularly for Investment in machinery and equipment. In addition, the paper develops a method for assessing the impact of tax policy on the volatility of Investment when such policy is endogenous. Illustrative calculations using this technique, based on the paper's empirical estimates, suggest that tax policy has not served to stabilize Investment in equipment or nonresidential structures during the sample period.
Philip Vermeulen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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business Fixed Investment evidence of a financial accelerator in europe
Social Science Research Network, 2003Co-Authors: Philip VermeulenAbstract:Financial accelerator theories imply that weak balance sheets can amplify adverse shocks on firm Investment. This effect should be asymmetric, stronger in downturns than in upturns and stronger for small firms than for large firms. This paper provides empirical evidence of the presence of a financial accelerator in the four largest euro area economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Using annual firm balance sheet data over the period 1983 - 1997 it is shown that weak balance sheets are more important in explaining Investment during downturns than during upturns. It is further shown that the effects of the accelerator are largest for small firms.
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business Fixed Investment evidence of a financial accelerator in europe
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2002Co-Authors: Philip VermeulenAbstract:Financial accelerator theories imply that weak balance sheets can amplify adverse shocks on firm Investment. This effect should be asymmetric, stronger in downturns than in upturns and stronger for small firms than for large firms. This paper provides empirical evidence of the presence of a financial accelerator in the four largest euro area economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Using annual firm balance sheet data over the period 1983 - 1997 it is shown that weak balance sheets are more important in explaining Investment during downturns than during upturns. It is further shown that the effects of the accelerator are largest for small firms. JEL Classification: E22, E44(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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business Fixed Investment evidence of a financial accelerator in europe
Research Papers in Economics, 2000Co-Authors: Philip VermeulenAbstract:Financial accelerator theories imply that weak balance sheets can amplify adverse shocks on firm Investment. This effect should be asymmetric, stronger in downturns than in upturns and stronger for small firms than for large firms. This paper provides empirical evidence of the presence of a financial accelerator in the four largest euro area economies: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Using annual firm balance sheet data over the period 1983 - 1997 it is shown that weak balance sheets are more important in explaining Investment during downturns than during upturns. It is further shown that the effects of the accelerator are largest for small firms. JEL Classification: E22, E44
