The Experts below are selected from a list of 258 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
B. Stahl - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Comparative Risk Assessment of Alternative TLP Systems: Structure and Foundation Aspects
Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 1994Co-Authors: R. G. Bea, C. A. Cornell, J. E. Vinnem, J. F. Geyer, G. J. Shoup, B. StahlAbstract:Offshore operators can choose from a wide variety of alternative production systems including those based on Fixed Platforms, tension leg Platforms (TLPs), compliant towers, floating production systems, and remote subsea systems. These systems involve varying degrees of technical innovation and technical risk. Life cycle costs, including initial costs and operating costs over the life of the project need to be carefully considered to define systems that will minimise cost and maximise return on investment. The life cycle includes all stages of the project, including design, construction, operation, and de-commissioning. To address decision-making issues in the selection of alternative systems, eighteen sponsoring organisations helped define the Methodologies for Comparison of Alternative Production Systems (MCAPS) project. This project developed and illustrated an engineering procedure to assist the process of making rational comparisons among design alternatives for offshore production systems. The example developed to illustrate application of MCAPS was a TLP concept designed for Gulf of Mexico conditions. Four TLP alternatives were analysed and compared; these involved three production riser alternatives and two tendon system alternatives. This paper addresses the structural and foundation aspects of the two tendon system alternatives. The structure aspects addressed in this paper include both first phase coarse qualitative and quantitative evaluations, and second phase detailed quantitative evaluations. The detailed quantitative evaluation is illustrated with structural damage in extreme conditions, including potential overloading of the hull, tendons, and the foundation piles. The paper concludes that MCAPS is not a simple process. It is an intensive interdisciplinary process requiring good teamwork and extensive familiarity with the system being analysed. The judgmental elements of the process are considerable. The potential benefits of the process include: an improved understanding, qualitatively and quantitatively of risk mechanisms; identification and mitigation of hazards; improved cost-effectiveness and designs; and improved safety. The specific risk numbers generated are less important than the design improvement insights that are developed; these numbers can only serve as a guide to focus attention on those aspects of the project which generate the most risk and to indicate where cost-effective risks reduction measures can be implemented.
V J Forbes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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developments in structural system reliability assessments of Fixed steel offshore Platforms
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2001Co-Authors: Toula Onoufriou, V J ForbesAbstract:Abstract In recent years there have been significant developments in the area of system reliability assessments which are becoming increasingly important given the framework of the ‘goal setting’ regime and other changes that are taking place within the offshore industry. The objective of this paper is to review and critically examine recent developments in system reliability methods for Fixed steel offshore Platforms specifically and identify areas that need to be examined further to maximise the benefits from the use of these techniques. The paper examines the range of proposed methods for system reliability assessment of Fixed steel offshore structures under extreme environmental loading. The associated characteristics of the various methods are examined and the paper concentrates in particular on the treatment of the resistance. The various system effects including both deterministic and probabilistic effects and their relative contribution to the overall system reliability are addressed. Key issues such as the modelling uncertainties and sensitivities, validation and benchmarking of the proposed methods are also examined. The study also highlights a number of technical and philosophical issues which need to be addressed to increase the benefits from system reliability applications in design and re-assessment of Fixed Platforms.
Mark J. Kaiser - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Deepwater Decommissioning Forecast
Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation, 2019Co-Authors: Mark J. KaiserAbstract:Abstract A total of 23 structures in the Gulf of Mexico have been decommissioned in water depth > 400 ft through 2017, leaving an active deepwater inventory of 46 Fixed Platforms, three compliant towers, and 47 floating structures circa 2017. Installation and decommissioning activity in deepwater are both small and sporadic, and these trends are unlikely to change in the future because of the significant capital requirements and planning involved and residual value of structures. All of the floaters and about half of the Fixed Platforms were held by production, and about a dozen Fixed Platforms were idle, and at least five of these structures have been converted to auxiliary roles as pipeline junctions. Several Fixed Platforms and a few floaters are long on their decline curve and are expected to be decommissioned within the next few years unless tieback opportunities materialize or alternative uses are found. Model results predict between 27 and 51 deepwater structures will be decommissioned through 2031, and between 12 and 25 removals are expected from 2017 to 2022.
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Deepwater Structure Inventory
Decommissioning Forecasting and Operating Cost Estimation, 2019Co-Authors: Mark J. KaiserAbstract:Abstract The deepwater inventory in the GoM consisted of 48 Fixed Platforms, three compliant towers, and 47 floaters circa 2016. All of the floaters were producing circa 2016, while 12 of the 48 Fixed Platforms did not produce, and at least five of these structures have been converted to pipeline junctions. In the first part of the chapter, floater equipment capacity and capacity-to-reserves ratios are examined followed by well type, production, reserves, PV-10, and revenue statistics circa 2016. In the second half of the chapter, gross revenue per individual structure provides a snapshot of the sector.
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A scenario-based deepwater decommissioning forecast in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2018Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 21 structures have been decommissioned in water depth greater than 400 ft from 1989 to 2016, and circa 2016 deepwater inventories include 48 Fixed Platforms, three compliant towers, and 47 floating structures. All of the floaters were held by production circa January 2017, but 12 Fixed Platforms no longer produce and at least five of these structures have been converted to serve auxiliary roles as pipeline junctions. Several Fixed Platforms and a few floaters are long on their decline curve and are expected to be decommissioned within the next few years unless tieback opportunities materialize or an alternative use for the structure is found. The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated analytic framework to model structure decommissioning using a scenario-based approach. Using production models and cash flow analysis combined with scheduled removals for nonproducing structures, model results predict between 27 and 51 deepwater structures will be decommissioned through 2031 and between 12 and 25 removals are expected from 2017 to 2022.
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decommissioning cost estimation in the deepwater u s gulf of mexico Fixed Platforms and compliant towers
Marine Structures, 2014Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract Decommissioning is the final stage in the life cycle of an offshore structure, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the platform and associated facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all obstructions created by the operations. From 1989 to 2012, 15 structures in water depth greater than 400 ft were decommissioned in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but none of the project cost have been publicly released. The purpose of this paper is to apply work decomposition algorithms developed by ProServ Offshore to estimate cost for well plugging and abandonment, conductor severance and removal, pipeline abandonment, umbilical and flowline removal, and platform removal for the 53 deepwater Fixed Platforms and compliant towers in the Gulf of Mexico circa January 2013. Decommissioning cost estimates are presented by stage and operator. Bullwinkle and Pompano are expected to be the most expensive Fixed platform decommissioning projects in the Gulf of Mexico estimated at $265 million and $203 million, respectively. Total undiscounted decommissioning liability for the asset class is estimated to be $2.4 billion.
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Decommissioning cost estimation in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico – Fixed Platforms and compliant towers
Marine Structures, 2014Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract Decommissioning is the final stage in the life cycle of an offshore structure, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the platform and associated facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all obstructions created by the operations. From 1989 to 2012, 15 structures in water depth greater than 400 ft were decommissioned in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but none of the project cost have been publicly released. The purpose of this paper is to apply work decomposition algorithms developed by ProServ Offshore to estimate cost for well plugging and abandonment, conductor severance and removal, pipeline abandonment, umbilical and flowline removal, and platform removal for the 53 deepwater Fixed Platforms and compliant towers in the Gulf of Mexico circa January 2013. Decommissioning cost estimates are presented by stage and operator. Bullwinkle and Pompano are expected to be the most expensive Fixed platform decommissioning projects in the Gulf of Mexico estimated at $265 million and $203 million, respectively. Total undiscounted decommissioning liability for the asset class is estimated to be $2.4 billion.
Mingming Liu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A scenario-based deepwater decommissioning forecast in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico
Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2018Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract In the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 21 structures have been decommissioned in water depth greater than 400 ft from 1989 to 2016, and circa 2016 deepwater inventories include 48 Fixed Platforms, three compliant towers, and 47 floating structures. All of the floaters were held by production circa January 2017, but 12 Fixed Platforms no longer produce and at least five of these structures have been converted to serve auxiliary roles as pipeline junctions. Several Fixed Platforms and a few floaters are long on their decline curve and are expected to be decommissioned within the next few years unless tieback opportunities materialize or an alternative use for the structure is found. The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated analytic framework to model structure decommissioning using a scenario-based approach. Using production models and cash flow analysis combined with scheduled removals for nonproducing structures, model results predict between 27 and 51 deepwater structures will be decommissioned through 2031 and between 12 and 25 removals are expected from 2017 to 2022.
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decommissioning cost estimation in the deepwater u s gulf of mexico Fixed Platforms and compliant towers
Marine Structures, 2014Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract Decommissioning is the final stage in the life cycle of an offshore structure, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the platform and associated facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all obstructions created by the operations. From 1989 to 2012, 15 structures in water depth greater than 400 ft were decommissioned in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but none of the project cost have been publicly released. The purpose of this paper is to apply work decomposition algorithms developed by ProServ Offshore to estimate cost for well plugging and abandonment, conductor severance and removal, pipeline abandonment, umbilical and flowline removal, and platform removal for the 53 deepwater Fixed Platforms and compliant towers in the Gulf of Mexico circa January 2013. Decommissioning cost estimates are presented by stage and operator. Bullwinkle and Pompano are expected to be the most expensive Fixed platform decommissioning projects in the Gulf of Mexico estimated at $265 million and $203 million, respectively. Total undiscounted decommissioning liability for the asset class is estimated to be $2.4 billion.
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Decommissioning cost estimation in the deepwater U.S. Gulf of Mexico – Fixed Platforms and compliant towers
Marine Structures, 2014Co-Authors: Mark J. Kaiser, Mingming LiuAbstract:Abstract Decommissioning is the final stage in the life cycle of an offshore structure, where all wells are plugged and abandoned, the platform and associated facilities are removed, and the seafloor cleared of all obstructions created by the operations. From 1989 to 2012, 15 structures in water depth greater than 400 ft were decommissioned in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, but none of the project cost have been publicly released. The purpose of this paper is to apply work decomposition algorithms developed by ProServ Offshore to estimate cost for well plugging and abandonment, conductor severance and removal, pipeline abandonment, umbilical and flowline removal, and platform removal for the 53 deepwater Fixed Platforms and compliant towers in the Gulf of Mexico circa January 2013. Decommissioning cost estimates are presented by stage and operator. Bullwinkle and Pompano are expected to be the most expensive Fixed platform decommissioning projects in the Gulf of Mexico estimated at $265 million and $203 million, respectively. Total undiscounted decommissioning liability for the asset class is estimated to be $2.4 billion.
R. G. Bea - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Comparative Risk Assessment of Alternative TLP Systems: Structure and Foundation Aspects
Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 1994Co-Authors: R. G. Bea, C. A. Cornell, J. E. Vinnem, J. F. Geyer, G. J. Shoup, B. StahlAbstract:Offshore operators can choose from a wide variety of alternative production systems including those based on Fixed Platforms, tension leg Platforms (TLPs), compliant towers, floating production systems, and remote subsea systems. These systems involve varying degrees of technical innovation and technical risk. Life cycle costs, including initial costs and operating costs over the life of the project need to be carefully considered to define systems that will minimise cost and maximise return on investment. The life cycle includes all stages of the project, including design, construction, operation, and de-commissioning. To address decision-making issues in the selection of alternative systems, eighteen sponsoring organisations helped define the Methodologies for Comparison of Alternative Production Systems (MCAPS) project. This project developed and illustrated an engineering procedure to assist the process of making rational comparisons among design alternatives for offshore production systems. The example developed to illustrate application of MCAPS was a TLP concept designed for Gulf of Mexico conditions. Four TLP alternatives were analysed and compared; these involved three production riser alternatives and two tendon system alternatives. This paper addresses the structural and foundation aspects of the two tendon system alternatives. The structure aspects addressed in this paper include both first phase coarse qualitative and quantitative evaluations, and second phase detailed quantitative evaluations. The detailed quantitative evaluation is illustrated with structural damage in extreme conditions, including potential overloading of the hull, tendons, and the foundation piles. The paper concludes that MCAPS is not a simple process. It is an intensive interdisciplinary process requiring good teamwork and extensive familiarity with the system being analysed. The judgmental elements of the process are considerable. The potential benefits of the process include: an improved understanding, qualitatively and quantitatively of risk mechanisms; identification and mitigation of hazards; improved cost-effectiveness and designs; and improved safety. The specific risk numbers generated are less important than the design improvement insights that are developed; these numbers can only serve as a guide to focus attention on those aspects of the project which generate the most risk and to indicate where cost-effective risks reduction measures can be implemented.