The Experts below are selected from a list of 309 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Eric Lantz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) - Webinar Presentation
2016Co-Authors: Wesley Cole, Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Parthiv Kurup, David Feldman, Benjamin Sigrin, Tyler Stehly, Chad Augustine, Craig Turchi, Gian PorroAbstract:This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and Future Cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.
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WREF 2012: THE PAST AND Future Cost OF WIND ENERGY
2013Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Ryan WiserAbstract:The Future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost reductions. To better understand the potential for Cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical Costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected Costs. It also notes potential sources of Future Cost reductions. Our findings indicate that steady Cost reductions were interrupted between 2004 and 2010, but falling turbine prices and improved turbine performance are expected to drive a historically low LCOE for current installations. In addition, the majority of studies indicate continued Cost reductions on the order of 20%-30% through 2030. Moreover, useful Cost projections are likely to benefit from stronger consideration of the interactions between capital Cost and performance as well as trends in the quality of the wind resource where projects are located, transmission, grid integration, and other Cost variables.
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Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy: Preprint
2012Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Ryan WiserAbstract:The Future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost reductions. To better understand the potential for Cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical Costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected Costs. It also notes potential sources of Future Cost reductions.
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WP2 IEA Wind Task 26:The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy
2012Co-Authors: Eric LantzAbstract:WP2 IEA Wind Task 26 The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy Leading Authors Eric Lantz: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Ryan Wiser: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Maureen Hand: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
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IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2
2012Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Ryan Wiser, Maureen HandAbstract:Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the Future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost of energy reductions. In this summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, titled 'The Cost of Wind Energy,' we provide a review of historical Costs, evaluate near-term market trends, review the methods used to estimate long-term Cost trajectories, and summarize the range of Costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. We also highlight the influence of high-level market variables on both past and Future wind energy Costs.
Maureen Hand - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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2016 Annual Technology Baseline
2016Co-Authors: Maureen Hand, Parthiv KurupAbstract:Current and Future Cost and performance data for electricity generating technologies, including both renewable and conventional technologies.
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2016 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) - Webinar Presentation
2016Co-Authors: Wesley Cole, Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Parthiv Kurup, David Feldman, Benjamin Sigrin, Tyler Stehly, Chad Augustine, Craig Turchi, Gian PorroAbstract:This deck was presented for the 2016 Annual Technology Baseline Webinar. The presentation describes the Annual Technology Baseline, which is a compilation of current and Future Cost and performance data for electricity generation technologies.
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WREF 2012: THE PAST AND Future Cost OF WIND ENERGY
2013Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Ryan WiserAbstract:The Future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost reductions. To better understand the potential for Cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical Costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected Costs. It also notes potential sources of Future Cost reductions. Our findings indicate that steady Cost reductions were interrupted between 2004 and 2010, but falling turbine prices and improved turbine performance are expected to drive a historically low LCOE for current installations. In addition, the majority of studies indicate continued Cost reductions on the order of 20%-30% through 2030. Moreover, useful Cost projections are likely to benefit from stronger consideration of the interactions between capital Cost and performance as well as trends in the quality of the wind resource where projects are located, transmission, grid integration, and other Cost variables.
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Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy: Preprint
2012Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Maureen Hand, Ryan WiserAbstract:The Future of wind power will depend on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost reductions. To better understand the potential for Cost reductions, this report provides a review of historical Costs, evaluates near-term market trends, and summarizes the range of projected Costs. It also notes potential sources of Future Cost reductions.
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IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2
2012Co-Authors: Eric Lantz, Ryan Wiser, Maureen HandAbstract:Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the Future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve Cost of energy reductions. In this summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, titled 'The Cost of Wind Energy,' we provide a review of historical Costs, evaluate near-term market trends, review the methods used to estimate long-term Cost trajectories, and summarize the range of Costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. We also highlight the influence of high-level market variables on both past and Future wind energy Costs.
Math Bollen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A Generic Storage Model Based on a Future Cost Piecewise-Linear Approximation
IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2019Co-Authors: Manuel Alvarez, Sarah K. Ronnberg, Juan Bermudez, Jin Zhong, Math BollenAbstract:This paper presents a generic storage model (GSM) inspired by the scheduling of hydraulic reservoirs. The model for steady state short-term operational studies interlaces with the long-term (LT) energy scheduling through a piecewise-linear Future Cost function (FCF). Under the assumption that a stochastic dual dynamic programming approach has been used to solve the energy schedule for the LT, the FCF output from that study will be processed to obtain an equivalent marginal opportunity Cost for the storage unit. The linear characteristic of a segment of the FCF will allow a linear modeling of the storage unit production Cost. This formulation will help to coordinate the renewable resource along with storage facilities in order to find the optimal operation Cost while meeting end-point conditions for the LT plan of the energy storage. The generic model will be implemented to represent a battery storage and a pumped-hydro storage. A stochastic unit commitment with the GSM will be formulated and tested to assess the day-ahead scheduling strategy of a virtual power plant facing uncertainties from production, consumption, and market prices.
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Reservoir-type hydropower equivalent model based on a Future Cost piecewise approximation
Electric Power Systems Research, 2018Co-Authors: Manuel Alvarez, Sarah K. Ronnberg, Juan Bermudez, Jin Zhong, Math BollenAbstract:Abstract The long-term (LT) scheduling of reservoir-type hydropower plants is a multistage stochastic dynamic problem that has been traditionally solved using the stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) approach. This LT schedule of releases should be met through short-term (ST) scheduling decisions obtained from a hydro-thermal scheduling that considers uncertainties. Both time scales can be linked if the ST problem considers as input the Future Cost function (FCF) obtained from LT studies. Known the piecewise-linear FCF, the hydro-scheduling can be solved as a one-stage problem. Under certain considerations a single segment of the FCF can be used to solve the schedule. From this formulation an equivalent model for the hydropower plant can be derived and used in ST studies. This model behaves accordingly to LT conditions to be met, and provides a marginal Cost for dispatching the plant. A generation company (GENCO) owning a mix of hydro, wind, and thermal power will be the subject of study where the model will be implemented. The GENCO faces the problem of scheduling the hydraulic resource under uncertainties from e.g. wind and load while determining the market bids that maximize its profit under uncertainties from market prices. A two-stage stochastic unit commitment (SUC) for the ST scheduling implementing the equivalent hydro model will be solved.
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A hydro-reservoir generic storage model for short-term hydrothermal coordination
2017 IEEE Manchester PowerTech, 2017Co-Authors: Manuel Alvarez, Sarah K. Ronnberg, Juan Bermudez, Jin Zhong, Math BollenAbstract:This work presents a linear solution for the short-term hydro-thermal scheduling problem linked to long-term conditions through a piecewise-linear Future Cost Function (FCF). Given end-point conditions to conform long-term water releases, and given actual reservoir conditions, a segment of a pre-built piecewise Future Cost function will be chosen. The linear characteristic of the FCF segment will allow a linear modeling of the hydro-power plant, in a similar fashion as a thermal unit with an equivalent marginal opportunity Cost. A short-term hydro thermal coordination problem will be formulated considering parallel and cascaded hydro-reservoirs. Three study cases involving different reservoir configurations and scenarios will be computed to test the model. The results of this model mimics coherently the Future-Cost hydro-thermal coordination problem for the different configurations tested. Given similarities with other forms of energy storage, a new theoretical model for generic storage will be proposed and discussed.
Iain Staffell - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Future Cost and performance of water electrolysis an expert elicitation study
International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2017Co-Authors: Oliver Schmidt, Ajay Gambhir, Adam Hawkes, Iain Staffell, Jenny Nelson, Sheridan FewAbstract:Abstract The need for energy storage to balance intermittent and inflexible electricity supply with demand is driving interest in conversion of renewable electricity via electrolysis into a storable gas. But, high capital Cost and uncertainty regarding Future Cost and performance improvements are barriers to investment in water electrolysis. Expert elicitations can support decision-making when data are sparse and their Future development uncertain. Therefore, this study presents expert views on Future capital Cost, lifetime and efficiency for three electrolysis technologies: alkaline (AEC), proton exchange membrane (PEMEC) and solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC). Experts estimate that increased R&D funding can reduce capital Costs by 0–24%, while production scale-up alone has an impact of 17–30%. System lifetimes may converge at around 60,000–90,000 h and efficiency improvements will be negligible. In addition to innovations on the cell-level, experts highlight improved production methods to automate manufacturing and produce higher quality components. Research into SOECs with lower electrode polarisation resistance or zero-gap AECs could undermine the projected dominance of PEMEC systems. This study thereby reduces barriers to investment in water electrolysis and shows how expert elicitations can help guide near-term investment, policy and research efforts to support the development of electrolysis for low-carbon energy systems.
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The Future Cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
Nature Energy, 2017Co-Authors: O. Schmidt, Ajay Gambhir, Adam Hawkes, Iain StaffellAbstract:Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in Future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittentsupply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain.Here, we construct experience curves to project Future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that,regardless of technology, capital Costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh−1for installed stationary systems andUS$175 ± 25 kWh−1for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment ofmaterial and production Costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion wouldbe needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growthprojections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of Future Cost reduction influence when storage becomes economicallycompetitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further studyby industry, policymakers and academics
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The Future Cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
Nature Energy, 2017Co-Authors: O. Schmidt, Ajay Gambhir, Adam Hawkes, Iain StaffellAbstract:Electrical energy storage is expected to be important for decarbonizing personal transport and enabling highly renewable electricity systems. This study analyses data on 11 storage technologies, constructing experience curves to project Future prices, and explores feasibl…
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The Future Cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates
Nature Energy, 2017Co-Authors: O. Schmidt, A. Hawkes, A. Gambhir, Iain StaffellAbstract:Electrical energy storage is expected to be important for decarbonizing personal transport and enabling highly renewable electricity systems. This study analyses data on 11 storage technologies, constructing experience curves to project Future prices, and explores feasible timelines for their economic competitiveness. Electrical energy storage could play a pivotal role in Future low-carbon electricity systems, balancing inflexible or intermittent supply with demand. Cost projections are important for understanding this role, but data are scarce and uncertain. Here, we construct experience curves to project Future prices for 11 electrical energy storage technologies. We find that, regardless of technology, capital Costs are on a trajectory towards US$340 ± 60 kWh^−1 for installed stationary systems and US$175 ± 25 kWh^−1 for battery packs once 1 TWh of capacity is installed for each technology. Bottom-up assessment of material and production Costs indicates this price range is not infeasible. Cumulative investments of US$175–510 billion would be needed for any technology to reach 1 TWh deployment, which could be achieved by 2027–2040 based on market growth projections. Finally, we explore how the derived rates of Future Cost reduction influence when storage becomes economically competitive in transport and residential applications. Thus, our experience-curve data set removes a barrier for further study by industry, policymakers and academics.
John D. Graham - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Assessing demand by urban consumers for plug-in electric vehicles under Future Cost and technological scenarios
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 2016Co-Authors: Rachel M. Krause, Bradley W. Lane, Sanya Carley, John D. GrahamAbstract:ABSTRACTPlug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are not currently being sold in the United States at rates sufficient to meet the stated goals of vehicle manufacturers or the federal government. Although touted as able to help mitigate a range of public problems—including climate change, oil insecurity, and urban air pollution—PEVs face numerous barriers to commercialization. Research and development activities are under way that may overcome some of the key disadvantages of the current generation of PEVs. This analysis employs a survey-based discrete-choice exercise with 961 potential new vehicle purchasers in large US cities to assess how consumer demand might change with various breakthroughs in PEV technology. Respondents are presented with different price and technology scenarios and are asked to choose which of four powertrains they are most likely to purchase: a gasoline vehicle, a conventional hybrid, a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), or a battery electric vehicle (BEV). A multinomial logit is us...
