The Experts below are selected from a list of 282 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Wolfgang Lutz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Future Population and human capital in heterogeneous india
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018Co-Authors: Marcus Wurzer, K C Samir, Markus Speringer, Wolfgang LutzAbstract:Within the next decade India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country due to still higher fertility and a younger Population. Around 2025 each country will be home to around 1.5 billion people. India is demographically very heterogeneous with some rural illiterate Populations still having more than four children on average while educated urban women have fewer than 1.5 children and with great differences between states. We show that the Population outlook greatly depends on the degree to which this heterogeneity is explicitly incorporated into the Population projection model used. The conventional projection model, considering only the age and sex structures of the Population at the national level, results in a lower projected Population than the same model applied at the level of states because over time the high-fertility states gain more weight, thus applying the higher rates to more people. The opposite outcome results from an explicit consideration of education differentials because over time the proportion of more educated women with lower fertility increases, thus leading to lower predicted growth than in the conventional model. To comprehensively address this issue, we develop a five-dimensional model of India’s Population by state, rural/urban place of residence, age, sex, and level of education and show the impacts of different degrees of aggregation. We also provide human capital scenarios for all Indian states that suggest that India will rapidly catch up with other more developed countries in Asia if the recent pace of education expansion is maintained.
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dimensions of global Population projections what do we know about Future Population trends and structures
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2010Co-Authors: Wolfgang Lutz, K C SamirAbstract:The total size of the world Population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown Future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the Population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, Population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the Future size of the Population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying Future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in Population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global Population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.
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Future Population and education trends: Scenarios to 2030 by socioecological region
2000Co-Authors: Anne Goujon, I. Kohler, Wolfgang LutzAbstract:This chapter proposes several possible paths of Population and educational attainment for the Yucatan peninsula up to 2030. For this purpose, the Population of each socioecological region (SER), as defined in Chapter 2, was projected along three main scenarios reflecting the potential Future of the region: a stagnation scenario, a rapid development scenario, and a central scenario. When defining the projection assumptions, special emphasis was placed on three parameters: education, migration, and rural/urban differences. The first focus derives from the premise that education may play an important role in shaping the region's demographic features. Education is seen as a factor of heterogeneity that can influence many variables of Population change, such as fertility decline and the momentum of Population growth. For example, the evidence of a negative relationship between education and fertility on the Yucatan peninsula is overwhelming. The focus on migration reflects the Population flows that have occurred in the region over the past 25 years. The Population has grown rapidly, largely as a result of migratory flows into the tourist-urban region (Cancun) and northern block-fault basin region (see Chapter 3). The peninsula's economy is largely based on tourism, and this sector has the potential to further increase its share in the region's economy (see Chapter 8). Another challenge lies in the division between the traditional rural Maya culture and the modern urban Western culture, a division that is the source of many demographic contrasts within the peninsula. Most of the rural parts of the peninsula are depressed areas that experience outward migration and higher rates of natural increase, lower life expectancies, and lower levels of educational attainment with higher rates of illiteracy than the urban parts of the peninsula.
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Future Population AND EDUCATION TRENDS IN THE COUNTRIES OF NORTH AFRICA
1996Co-Authors: H.m. Yousif, Anne Goujon, Wolfgang LutzAbstract:The report provides a concise and comprehensive review of available data on past demographic trends in the region and combines this analysis with expert opinion on alternative Future demographic trends (as described in Lutz, 1996) to calculate likely ranges of Future Population growth. A very important and innovative feature of this study is that it explicitly includes the educational status of the Population in its projections. This is done by multistate Population projections, a method that largely originated at IIASA. Educational projections are an important task in themselves because education, as the major component of human capital, is a key factor in national development and in society's ability to cope with arising problems. But the projection of education is also particularly suitable for the demographic cohort-component method because it is the past and the present school enrollment of the young cohorts that largely determines the Future educational composition of the Population. It turns out that, due to the large educational fertility differentials and the inter-cohort differences in education in the countries of North Africa, an explicit inclusion of education in projections makes the Population projections more accurate. The study is not only relevant for the North African region and its neighbors; it also demonstrates that generally it is feasible and very useful to explicitly include education in Population projections.
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the Future Population of the world what can we assume today
1995Co-Authors: Wolfgang LutzAbstract:This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updated starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world Population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global Populations. Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of "The Future Population of the World" is sure to confirm its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.
K C Samir - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Future Population and human capital in heterogeneous india
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018Co-Authors: Marcus Wurzer, K C Samir, Markus Speringer, Wolfgang LutzAbstract:Within the next decade India is expected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country due to still higher fertility and a younger Population. Around 2025 each country will be home to around 1.5 billion people. India is demographically very heterogeneous with some rural illiterate Populations still having more than four children on average while educated urban women have fewer than 1.5 children and with great differences between states. We show that the Population outlook greatly depends on the degree to which this heterogeneity is explicitly incorporated into the Population projection model used. The conventional projection model, considering only the age and sex structures of the Population at the national level, results in a lower projected Population than the same model applied at the level of states because over time the high-fertility states gain more weight, thus applying the higher rates to more people. The opposite outcome results from an explicit consideration of education differentials because over time the proportion of more educated women with lower fertility increases, thus leading to lower predicted growth than in the conventional model. To comprehensively address this issue, we develop a five-dimensional model of India’s Population by state, rural/urban place of residence, age, sex, and level of education and show the impacts of different degrees of aggregation. We also provide human capital scenarios for all Indian states that suggest that India will rapidly catch up with other more developed countries in Asia if the recent pace of education expansion is maintained.
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dimensions of global Population projections what do we know about Future Population trends and structures
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 2010Co-Authors: Wolfgang Lutz, K C SamirAbstract:The total size of the world Population is likely to increase from its current 7 billion to 8–10 billion by 2050. This uncertainty is because of unknown Future fertility and mortality trends in different parts of the world. But the young age structure of the Population and the fact that in much of Africa and Western Asia, fertility is still very high makes an increase by at least one more billion almost certain. Virtually, all the increase will happen in the developing world. For the second half of the century, Population stabilization and the onset of a decline are likely. In addition to the Future size of the Population, its distribution by age, sex, level of educational attainment and place of residence are of specific importance for studying Future food security. The paper provides a detailed discussion of different relevant dimensions in Population projections and an evaluation of the methods and assumptions used in current global Population projections and in particular those produced by the United Nations and by IIASA.
Jon Ågren - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Linking climate data and demography to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
2020Co-Authors: Per Toräng, Johan Ehrlén, Jon ÅgrenAbstract:Linking climate data and demography to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
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Linking environmental and demographic data to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
Oecologia, 2010Co-Authors: Per Toräng, Johan Ehrlén, Jon ÅgrenAbstract:Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for Population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on Population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three Populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected Population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, λS), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a Future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced Population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for Population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect Population viability.
Claudia Tebaldi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Future Population exposure to us heat extremes
Nature Climate Change, 2015Co-Authors: Bryan Jones, Brian C Oneill, Larry Mcdaniel, Seth Mcginnis, Linda O Mearns, Claudia TebaldiAbstract:US Population exposure to extreme heat is set to increase four- to sixfold from the late twentieth century. Changes in Population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome.
Per Toräng - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Linking climate data and demography to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
2020Co-Authors: Per Toräng, Johan Ehrlén, Jon ÅgrenAbstract:Linking climate data and demography to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
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Linking environmental and demographic data to predict Future Population viability of a perennial herb
Oecologia, 2010Co-Authors: Per Toräng, Johan Ehrlén, Jon ÅgrenAbstract:Recent advances in stochastic demography provide tools to examine the importance of random and periodic variation in vital rates for Population dynamics. In this study, we explore with simulations the effect of disturbance regime on Population dynamics and viability. We collected 7 years of demographic data in three Populations of the perennial herb Primula farinosa, and used these data to examine how variation in vital rates affected Population viability parameters (stochastic growth rate, λS), and how vital rates were related to weather conditions. Elasticity analysis indicated that the stochastic growth rate was very sensitive to changes in regeneration, quantified as the production, survival, and germination of seeds. In one of the study years, all seedlings and mature plants in the demography plots died. This extinction coincided with the driest summer during the study period. Simulations suggested that a Future increase in the frequency of high-mortality years due to climate change would result in reduced Population growth rate, and an increased importance of survival in the seed bank for Population viability. The results illustrate how the limited demographic data typically available for many natural systems can be used in simulation models to assess how environmental change will affect Population viability.
