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Patrick Heimbach - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • 2013a: Two decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, variations, extremes, prediction, and overcoming its limitations
    2015
    Co-Authors: Carl Wunsch, Patrick Heimbach
    Abstract:

    The zonally integratedmeridional volume transport in the NorthAtlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian Stochastic Process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance of apparent trends. Gaussian behavior is consistent with the central limit theorem for a Process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal in-stabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical Processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin. 1

  • two decades of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation anatomy variations extremes prediction and overcoming its limitations
    Journal of Climate, 2013
    Co-Authors: Carl Wunsch, Patrick Heimbach
    Abstract:

    The zonally integratedmeridional volumetransport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridionaloverturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian Stochastic Process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance ofapparenttrends. Gaussianbehaviorisconsistentwith the central limittheorem for a Process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal instabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical Processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin.

Carl Wunsch - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • 2013a: Two decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, variations, extremes, prediction, and overcoming its limitations
    2015
    Co-Authors: Carl Wunsch, Patrick Heimbach
    Abstract:

    The zonally integratedmeridional volume transport in the NorthAtlantic [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19 yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian Stochastic Process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance of apparent trends. Gaussian behavior is consistent with the central limit theorem for a Process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal in-stabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical Processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin. 1

  • two decades of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation anatomy variations extremes prediction and overcoming its limitations
    Journal of Climate, 2013
    Co-Authors: Carl Wunsch, Patrick Heimbach
    Abstract:

    The zonally integratedmeridional volumetransport in the North Atlantic [Atlantic meridionaloverturning circulation (AMOC)] is described in a 19-yr-long ocean-state estimate, one consistent with a diverse global dataset. Apart from a weak increasing trend at high northern latitudes, the AMOC appears statistically stable over the last 19yr with fluctuations indistinguishable from those of a stationary Gaussian Stochastic Process. This characterization makes it possible to study (using highly developed tools) extreme values, predictability, and the statistical significance ofapparenttrends. Gaussianbehaviorisconsistentwith the central limittheorem for a Process arising from numerous independent disturbances. In this case, generators include internal instabilities, changes in wind and buoyancy forcing fields, boundary waves, the Gulf Stream and deep western boundary current transports, the interior fraction in Sverdrup balance, and all similar phenomena arriving as summation effects from long distances and times. As a zonal integral through the sum of the large variety of physical Processes in the three-dimensional ocean circulation, understanding of the AMOC, if it is of central climate importance, requires breaking it down into its unintegrated components over the entire basin.

Christian Soize - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • symbolic and numeric scheme for solution of linear integro differential equations with random parameter uncertainties and Gaussian Stochastic Process input
    Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2018
    Co-Authors: Igor E Poloskov, Christian Soize
    Abstract:

    The paper describes a theoretical apparatus and an algorithmic part of application of the Green matrix-valued functions for time-domain analysis of systems of linear Stochastic integro-differential equations. It is suggested that these systems are subjected to Gaussian nonstationary Stochastic noises in the presence of model parameter uncertainties that are described in the framework of the probability theory. If the uncertain model parameter is fixed to a given value, then a time-history of the system will be fully represented by a second-order Gaussian vector Stochastic Process whose properties are completely defined by its conditional vector-valued mean function and matrix-valued covariance function. The scheme that is proposed is constituted of a combination of two subschemes. The first one explicitly defines closed relations for symbolic and numeric computations of the conditional mean and covariance functions, and the second one calculates unconditional characteristics by the Monte Carlo method. A full scheme realized on the base of Wolfram Mathematica and Intel Fortran software programs, is demonstrated by an example devoted to an estimation of a nonstationary Stochastic response of a mechanical system with a thermoviscoelastic component. Results obtained by using the proposed scheme are compared with a reference solution constructed by using a direct Monte Carlo simulation.

Yury V. Kozachenko - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Mykola Sergiienko - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.