The Experts below are selected from a list of 838491 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Madhur Anand - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Human Environment interactions in population and ecosystem health
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016Co-Authors: Alison P Galvani, Chris T. Bauch, Madhur Anand, Burton H Singer, Simon A LevinAbstract:As the global Human population continues to grow, so too does our impact on the Environment. The ingenuity with which our species has harnessed natural resources to fulfill our needs is dazzling. Even as we tighten our grip on the Environment, however, the escalating extent of anthropogenic actions destabilizes long-standing ecological balances (1, 2). The dangers of mining, refining, and fossil fuel consumption now extend beyond occupational or proximate risks to global climate change (3). Among a plethora of Environmental problems, extreme climate events are intensifying (4, 5). Storms, droughts, and floods cause direct destruction, but also have pervasive repercussions on food security, infectious disease transmission, and economic stability that take their toll for many years. For example, within weeks of the catastrophic wind and flood damage from the 2016 Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, there was a dramatic surge in cholera, among other devastating repercussions (6, 7). In a world where 1% of the population possesses 50% of the wealth (8), those worst affected by extreme climatic events and the aftermath are also the least able to rebound. Compounding the impact of natural disasters, our progressively more intimate interactions with fragmented Environments (9) have given rise to an era of disease emergence and re-emergence at unprecedented rates, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of the Ebola and Zika viruses. Furthermore, globalization to an extent that includes the airline travel of over eight million people every day has enabled such disease outbreaks to disseminate rapidly and pose a threat far beyond their areas of origin (10). Addressing these challenges requires an understanding of coupled Human–Environment dynamics, whereby Human activity modifies an Environmental system (often detrimentally), and the resulting Environmental repercussions then impact Humans. In turn, these impacts can potentially spur a shift in Human activity toward protection and restoration. … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: alison.galvani{at}yale.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1
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early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled Human Environment systems
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016Co-Authors: Chris T. Bauch, Madhur Anand, Ram P Sigdel, Joe PharaonAbstract:Abstract In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled Human–Environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent Environment model uncoupled from the Human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled Environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of Human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic Human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as Humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.
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coupled Human Environment dynamics of forest pest spread and control in a multi patch stochastic setting
PLOS ONE, 2015Co-Authors: Chris T. Bauch, Madhur AnandAbstract:Background The transportation of camp firewood infested by non-native forest pests such as Asian long-horned beetle (ALB) and emerald ash borer (EAB) has severe impacts on North American forests. Once invasive forest pests are established, it can be difficult to eradicate them. Hence, preventing the long-distance transport of firewood by individuals is crucial. Methods Here we develop a stochastic simulation model that captures the interaction between forest pest infestations and Human decisions regarding firewood transportation. The population of trees is distributed across 10 patches (parks) comprising a “low volume” partition of 5 patches that experience a low volume of park visitors, and a “high volume” partition of 5 patches experiencing a high visitor volume. The infestation spreads within a patch—and also between patches—according to the probability of between-patch firewood transportation. Individuals decide to transport firewood or buy it locally based on the costs of locally purchased versus transported firewood, social norms, social learning, and level of concern for observed infestations. Results We find that the average time until a patch becomes infested depends nonlinearly on many model parameters. In particular, modest increases in the tree removal rate, modest increases in public concern for infestation, and modest decreases in the cost of locally purchased firewood, relative to baseline (current) values, cause very large increases in the average time until a patch becomes infested due to firewood transport from other patches, thereby better preventing long-distance spread. Patches that experience lower visitor volumes benefit more from firewood movement restrictions than patches that experience higher visitor volumes. Also, cross–patch infestations not only seed new infestations, they can also worsen existing infestations to a surprising extent: long-term infestations are more intense in the high volume patches than the low volume patches, even when infestation is already endemic everywhere. Conclusions The success of efforts to prevent long-distance spread of forest pests may depend sensitively on the interaction between outbreak dynamics and Human social processes, with similar levels of effort producing very different outcomes depending on where the coupled Human and natural system exists in parameter space. Further development of such modeling approaches through better empirical validation should yield more precise recommendations for ways to optimally prevent the long-distance spread of invasive forest pests.
Chris T. Bauch - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Human Environment interactions in population and ecosystem health
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016Co-Authors: Alison P Galvani, Chris T. Bauch, Madhur Anand, Burton H Singer, Simon A LevinAbstract:As the global Human population continues to grow, so too does our impact on the Environment. The ingenuity with which our species has harnessed natural resources to fulfill our needs is dazzling. Even as we tighten our grip on the Environment, however, the escalating extent of anthropogenic actions destabilizes long-standing ecological balances (1, 2). The dangers of mining, refining, and fossil fuel consumption now extend beyond occupational or proximate risks to global climate change (3). Among a plethora of Environmental problems, extreme climate events are intensifying (4, 5). Storms, droughts, and floods cause direct destruction, but also have pervasive repercussions on food security, infectious disease transmission, and economic stability that take their toll for many years. For example, within weeks of the catastrophic wind and flood damage from the 2016 Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, there was a dramatic surge in cholera, among other devastating repercussions (6, 7). In a world where 1% of the population possesses 50% of the wealth (8), those worst affected by extreme climatic events and the aftermath are also the least able to rebound. Compounding the impact of natural disasters, our progressively more intimate interactions with fragmented Environments (9) have given rise to an era of disease emergence and re-emergence at unprecedented rates, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of the Ebola and Zika viruses. Furthermore, globalization to an extent that includes the airline travel of over eight million people every day has enabled such disease outbreaks to disseminate rapidly and pose a threat far beyond their areas of origin (10). Addressing these challenges requires an understanding of coupled Human–Environment dynamics, whereby Human activity modifies an Environmental system (often detrimentally), and the resulting Environmental repercussions then impact Humans. In turn, these impacts can potentially spur a shift in Human activity toward protection and restoration. … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence should be addressed. Email: alison.galvani{at}yale.edu. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1
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early warning signals of regime shifts in coupled Human Environment systems
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2016Co-Authors: Chris T. Bauch, Madhur Anand, Ram P Sigdel, Joe PharaonAbstract:Abstract In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system’s dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled Human–Environment systems (HESs) remain little studied. Here, we compare critical transitions and their early warning signals in a coupled HES model to an equivalent Environment model uncoupled from the Human system. We parameterize the HES model, using social and ecological data from old-growth forests in Oregon. We find that the coupled HES exhibits a richer variety of dynamics and regime shifts than the uncoupled Environment system. Moreover, the early warning signals in the coupled HES can be ambiguous, heralding either an era of ecosystem conservationism or collapse of both forest ecosystems and conservationism. The presence of Human feedback in the coupled HES can also mitigate the early warning signal, making it more difficult to detect the oncoming regime shift. We furthermore show how the coupled HES can be “doomed to criticality”: Strategic Human interactions cause the system to remain perpetually in the vicinity of a collapse threshold, as Humans become complacent when the resource seems protected but respond rapidly when it is under immediate threat. We conclude that the opportunities, benefits, and challenges of modeling regime shifts and early warning signals in coupled HESs merit further research.
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coupled Human Environment dynamics of forest pest spread and control in a multi patch stochastic setting
PLOS ONE, 2015Co-Authors: Chris T. Bauch, Madhur AnandAbstract:Background The transportation of camp firewood infested by non-native forest pests such as Asian long-horned beetle (ALB) and emerald ash borer (EAB) has severe impacts on North American forests. Once invasive forest pests are established, it can be difficult to eradicate them. Hence, preventing the long-distance transport of firewood by individuals is crucial. Methods Here we develop a stochastic simulation model that captures the interaction between forest pest infestations and Human decisions regarding firewood transportation. The population of trees is distributed across 10 patches (parks) comprising a “low volume” partition of 5 patches that experience a low volume of park visitors, and a “high volume” partition of 5 patches experiencing a high visitor volume. The infestation spreads within a patch—and also between patches—according to the probability of between-patch firewood transportation. Individuals decide to transport firewood or buy it locally based on the costs of locally purchased versus transported firewood, social norms, social learning, and level of concern for observed infestations. Results We find that the average time until a patch becomes infested depends nonlinearly on many model parameters. In particular, modest increases in the tree removal rate, modest increases in public concern for infestation, and modest decreases in the cost of locally purchased firewood, relative to baseline (current) values, cause very large increases in the average time until a patch becomes infested due to firewood transport from other patches, thereby better preventing long-distance spread. Patches that experience lower visitor volumes benefit more from firewood movement restrictions than patches that experience higher visitor volumes. Also, cross–patch infestations not only seed new infestations, they can also worsen existing infestations to a surprising extent: long-term infestations are more intense in the high volume patches than the low volume patches, even when infestation is already endemic everywhere. Conclusions The success of efforts to prevent long-distance spread of forest pests may depend sensitively on the interaction between outbreak dynamics and Human social processes, with similar levels of effort producing very different outcomes depending on where the coupled Human and natural system exists in parameter space. Further development of such modeling approaches through better empirical validation should yield more precise recommendations for ways to optimally prevent the long-distance spread of invasive forest pests.
Jeanne X Kasperson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003Co-Authors: Barry Turner, Roger E Kasperson, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X Kasperson, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Pamela A Matson, James J MccarthyAbstract:Global Environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple Environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled Human–Environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled Human–Environment systems is presented.
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illustrating the coupled Human Environment system for vulnerability analysis three case studies
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003Co-Authors: B L Turner, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X Kasperson, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Pamela A Matson, James J Mccarthy, Grete K Hovelsrudbroda, Roger E KaspersonAbstract:The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Sys- tems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled Human-Environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulner- ability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatan , the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environ- mental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.
Roger E Kasperson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003Co-Authors: Barry Turner, Roger E Kasperson, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X Kasperson, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Pamela A Matson, James J MccarthyAbstract:Global Environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple Environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled Human–Environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled Human–Environment systems is presented.
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illustrating the coupled Human Environment system for vulnerability analysis three case studies
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003Co-Authors: B L Turner, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X Kasperson, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Pamela A Matson, James J Mccarthy, Grete K Hovelsrudbroda, Roger E KaspersonAbstract:The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Sys- tems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled Human-Environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulner- ability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatan , the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environ- mental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.
B L Turner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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classic period collapse of the central maya lowlands insights about Human Environment relationships for sustainability
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2012Co-Authors: B L Turner, Jeremy A SabloffAbstract:The ninth century collapse and abandonment of the Central Maya Lowlands in the Yucatan peninsular region were the result of complex Human–Environment interactions. Large-scale Maya landscape alterations and demands placed on resources and ecosystem services generated high-stress Environmental conditions that were amplified by increasing climatic aridity. Coincident with this stress, the flow of commerce shifted from land transit across the peninsula to sea-borne transit around it. These changing socioeconomic and Environmental conditions generated increasing societal conflicts, diminished control by the Maya elite, and led to decisions to move elsewhere in the peninsular region rather than incur the high costs of maintaining the Human–Environment systems in place. After abandonment, the Environment of the Central Maya Lowlands largely recovered, although altered from its state before Maya occupation; the population never recovered. This history and the spatial and temporal variability in the pattern of collapse and abandonment throughout the Maya lowlands support the case for different conditions, opportunities, and constraints in the prevailing Human–Environment systems and the decisions to confront them. The Maya case lends insights for the use of paleo- and historical analogs to inform contemporary global Environmental change and sustainability.
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land change science and political ecology similarities differences and implications for sustainability science
Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2008Co-Authors: B L Turner, Paul RobbinsAbstract:Land-change science (LCS) and political ecology (PE) have emerged as two complementary but parallel approaches of addressing Human-Environment dynamics for sustainability. They share common intellectual legacies, are highly interdisciplinary, and provide understanding about changes in the coupled Human-Environment system. Distinctions in their problem framings and explanatory perspectives, however, have accentuated their differences and masked the symmetry in much of their findings relevant for sustainability themes. Focusing on their shared interests in the Human-Environment interactions of land use illuminates the differences and similarities relevant to these themes. Divergence is found primarily in regard to their different foci of interests about causes and consequences of land change. Convergence is revealed in the identification of the complexity of the interactions and the importance of context in land-change outcomes and in the general consensus found in such synthesis issues as forest transition...
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illustrating the coupled Human Environment system for vulnerability analysis three case studies
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2003Co-Authors: B L Turner, Noelle Eckley, Jeanne X Kasperson, Robert W. Corell, Lindsey Christensen, Pamela A Matson, James J Mccarthy, Grete K Hovelsrudbroda, Roger E KaspersonAbstract:The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Sys- tems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled Human-Environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulner- ability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatan , the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environ- mental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.
