The Experts below are selected from a list of 150 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform

Jan Erik Vinnem - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • quantitative risk modelling of maintenance work on major offshore process equipment
    Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, 2018
    Co-Authors: Jan Erik Vinnem, Xingwei Zhen, Changyi Peng, Yi Huang
    Abstract:

    Abstract Investigations of major offshore accidents show that both technical and non-technical factors have crucial effects on the accident sequences. Nonetheless, quantitative risk analyses (QRAs) have traditionally focused on the technical safety systems while applications and findings in the non-technical fields are to a large extent missing. This paper proposes a new quantitative risk modelling methodology reflecting and analyzing how specific factors with respect to human, operational and organizational risk influencing factors (RIFs) influence the barrier performance for offshore maintenance work. New RIF-Index is proposed to identify and structure diverse RIFs for all failure events. RIFs are assessed by experts according to the established fuzzy scoring criterion. Further, the modified fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) addressing the fuzzy consistency is used to assess the importance degree of RIFs. On this basis, the industry average frequencies/probabilities are revised through an integrated assessment of the priority weights and the status of RIFs. Thus, input of the revised frequencies/probabilities results in an updated risk picture, which takes the specific conditions of technical, human, operational and organizational RIFs into account. Specific Hydrocarbon Release incident on the offshore installation is used as a case study with the purpose to apply and test the proposed methodology. It has been demonstrated that the proposed methodology is an effective tool for analyzing the failure of safety barriers, and handling the uncertainties and subjectivities arising in the operational risk analysis. The methodology is useful in demonstrating the effects on the barrier performance of installation specific conditions of non-technical RIFs.

  • risk modelling of maintenance work on major process equipment on offshore petroleum installations
    Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, 2012
    Co-Authors: Jan Erik Vinnem, Bjorn Axel Gran, Trond Kongsvik, Ole Magnus Nyheim, E H Okstad, Jorunn Seljelid, Jorn Vatn
    Abstract:

    Abstract Investigations of major accidents show that technical, human, operational, as well as organizational factors influence the accident sequences. In spite of these facts, quantitative risk analyses of offshore oil and gas production platforms have focused on technical safety systems. This paper describes an effort to develop further the quantitative risk analysis of the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequency by considering operational barriers in event trees and fault trees, as well as risk influencing factors that determine the basic event probabilities in the fault trees. A generic model based on Risk Influencing Factors has been developed and is adapted to use for specific failure scenarios. The full Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is presented, and two alternative implementations are outlined. Human error probabilities are discussed, importance measurement, as well as modelling of common cause and interactions. Use of the model is briefly outlined, but the possible applications are presented more thoroughly in a companion paper. It has been demonstrated that the model is capable of reflecting relative differences between alternative installations with different cultures and implementation of management systems. The model is also useful in demonstrating the importance and effects of improving human and organizational aspects.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part i method description
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Terje Aven, Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem
    Abstract:

    Investigations of major accidents show that technical, human, operational, as well as organisational factors influence the accident sequences. In spite of these facts, quantitative risk analyses of offshore oil and gas production platforms have focused on technical safety systems. This paper presents a method (called BORA-Release) for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequency. By using BORA-Release it is possible to analyse the effect of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and how platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors influence the barrier performance. BORA-Release comprises the following main steps: (1) development of a basic risk model including Release scenarios, (2) modelling the performance of safety barriers, (3) assignment of industry average probabilities/frequencies and risk quantification based on these probabilities/frequencies, (4) development of risk influence diagrams, (5) scoring of risk influencing factors, (6) weighting of risk influencing factors, (7) adjustment of industry average probabilities/frequencies, and (8) recalculation of the risk in order to determine the platform specific risk related to Hydrocarbon Release. The various steps in BORA-Release are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper presents results from a case study where BORA-Release is applied.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part ii results from a case study
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem, Terje Aven
    Abstract:

    This paper presents results from a case study carried out on an offshore oil and gas production platform with the purpose to apply and test BORA-Release, a method for barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases. A description of the BORA-Release method is given in Part I of the paper. BORA-Release is applied to express the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequencies for three Release scenarios for selected systems and activities on the platform. The case study demonstrated that the BORA-Release method is a useful tool for analysing the effect on the Release frequency of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and to study the effect on the barrier performance of platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors (RIFs). BORA-Release may also be used to analyse the effect on the Release frequency of risk reducing measures.

Terje Aven - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part i method description
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Terje Aven, Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem
    Abstract:

    Investigations of major accidents show that technical, human, operational, as well as organisational factors influence the accident sequences. In spite of these facts, quantitative risk analyses of offshore oil and gas production platforms have focused on technical safety systems. This paper presents a method (called BORA-Release) for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequency. By using BORA-Release it is possible to analyse the effect of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and how platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors influence the barrier performance. BORA-Release comprises the following main steps: (1) development of a basic risk model including Release scenarios, (2) modelling the performance of safety barriers, (3) assignment of industry average probabilities/frequencies and risk quantification based on these probabilities/frequencies, (4) development of risk influence diagrams, (5) scoring of risk influencing factors, (6) weighting of risk influencing factors, (7) adjustment of industry average probabilities/frequencies, and (8) recalculation of the risk in order to determine the platform specific risk related to Hydrocarbon Release. The various steps in BORA-Release are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper presents results from a case study where BORA-Release is applied.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part ii results from a case study
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem, Terje Aven
    Abstract:

    This paper presents results from a case study carried out on an offshore oil and gas production platform with the purpose to apply and test BORA-Release, a method for barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases. A description of the BORA-Release method is given in Part I of the paper. BORA-Release is applied to express the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequencies for three Release scenarios for selected systems and activities on the platform. The case study demonstrated that the BORA-Release method is a useful tool for analysing the effect on the Release frequency of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and to study the effect on the barrier performance of platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors (RIFs). BORA-Release may also be used to analyse the effect on the Release frequency of risk reducing measures.

Snorre Sklet - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part ii results from a case study
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem, Terje Aven
    Abstract:

    This paper presents results from a case study carried out on an offshore oil and gas production platform with the purpose to apply and test BORA-Release, a method for barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases. A description of the BORA-Release method is given in Part I of the paper. BORA-Release is applied to express the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequencies for three Release scenarios for selected systems and activities on the platform. The case study demonstrated that the BORA-Release method is a useful tool for analysing the effect on the Release frequency of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and to study the effect on the barrier performance of platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors (RIFs). BORA-Release may also be used to analyse the effect on the Release frequency of risk reducing measures.

  • barrier and operational risk analysis of Hydrocarbon Releases bora Release part i method description
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2006
    Co-Authors: Terje Aven, Snorre Sklet, Jan Erik Vinnem
    Abstract:

    Investigations of major accidents show that technical, human, operational, as well as organisational factors influence the accident sequences. In spite of these facts, quantitative risk analyses of offshore oil and gas production platforms have focused on technical safety systems. This paper presents a method (called BORA-Release) for qualitative and quantitative risk analysis of the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequency. By using BORA-Release it is possible to analyse the effect of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases, and how platform specific conditions of technical, human, operational, and organisational risk influencing factors influence the barrier performance. BORA-Release comprises the following main steps: (1) development of a basic risk model including Release scenarios, (2) modelling the performance of safety barriers, (3) assignment of industry average probabilities/frequencies and risk quantification based on these probabilities/frequencies, (4) development of risk influence diagrams, (5) scoring of risk influencing factors, (6) weighting of risk influencing factors, (7) adjustment of industry average probabilities/frequencies, and (8) recalculation of the risk in order to determine the platform specific risk related to Hydrocarbon Release. The various steps in BORA-Release are presented and discussed. Part II of the paper presents results from a case study where BORA-Release is applied.

  • Hydrocarbon Releases on oil and gas production platforms Release scenarios and safety barriers
    Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries, 2006
    Co-Authors: Snorre Sklet
    Abstract:

    Abstract The main objective of this paper is to present and discuss a set of scenarios that may lead to Hydrocarbon Releases on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Each Release scenario is described by an initiating event (i.e., a deviation), the barrier functions introduced to prevent the initiating event from developing into a Release, and how the barrier functions are implemented in terms of barrier systems. Both technical and human/operational safety barriers are considered. The initiating events are divided into five main categories: (1) human and operational errors, (2) technical failures, (3) process upsets, (4) external events or loads, and (5) latent failures from design. The Release scenarios may be used as basis for analyses of: (a) the performance of safety barriers introduced to prevent Hydrocarbon Releases on specific platforms, (b) the platform specific Hydrocarbon Release frequencies in future quantitative risk analyses, (c) the effect on the total Hydrocarbon Release frequency of the safety barriers and risk reducing measures (or risk increasing changes).

Alberto Guadagnini - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Probabilistic analysis of risk and mitigation of deepwater well blowouts and oil spills
    Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2018
    Co-Authors: Alessandro Caia, Alberto Giulio Lullo, Giambattista Ghetto, Alberto Guadagnini
    Abstract:

    The development of robust risk assessment procedures for offshore oil and gas operations is a major element for the assessment of the potential feedback between planned activities and the environment. We illustrate a methodological and computational framework conducive to (1) a quantitative risk analysis of deepwater well barrier failures and subsequent Hydrocarbon Release to the environment and (2) the analysis of the value of the deployment of conventional and/or innovative mitigation measures. Our methodological framework is grounded on historical records and combines the use of Dynamic Event Trees and Decision Trees from which we estimate probability of occurrence and impact of post-blowout events. Each sequence of response actions, which are undertaken immediately after the event or in the subsequent days, is considered within the context of appropriately structured event paths. This approach is conducive to an estimate of the expected value of key decisions and underlying technologies, with an emphasis on their potential to reduce the oil spill volume, which can critically impact the environment. Our study yields an original comparative analysis of diverse intervention strategies, and forms a basis to guiding future efforts towards the development and deployment of technologies and operating procedures yielding maximum benefit in terms of safety of operations and environmental protection.

Faisal Khan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Dynamic ecological risk modelling of Hydrocarbon Release scenarios in Arctic waters.
    Marine pollution bulletin, 2020
    Co-Authors: Zaman Sajid, Faisal Khan, Brian Veitch
    Abstract:

    Abstract The Arctic is an ecologically diverse area that is increasingly vulnerable to damages from oil spills associated with commercial vessels traversing newly open shipping lanes. The significance of such accidents on Arctic marine habitats and the potential for recovery can be examined using ecological risk assessment (ERA) coupled with a dynamic object-oriented Bayesian network (DOOBN). A DOOBN approach is useful to represent the probabilistic relationships inherent in the interactions between key events associated with an oil spill, including oil dispersion from the source, ice-oil slick interactions, seawater-oil slick formation, sedimentation, and exposures to different aquatic life. From such analysis, a probabilistic cost analysis can be performed to examine the theoretical cost of habitat services lost and restored. The application of an ERA-DOOBN model to assess oil spills in the Arctic is demonstrated using a case study. The utility of the model output for determining habitat restoration costs and developing policy guidelines for ecological response measures in the Arctic is also discussed.

  • modelling an integrated impact of fire explosion and combustion products during transitional events caused by an accidental Release of lng
    Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2019
    Co-Authors: Til Baalisampang, Faisal Khan, Rouzbeh Abbassi, Vikram Garaniya, Mohammad Dadashzadeh
    Abstract:

    Abstract In a complex processing facility, there is likelihood of occurrence of cascading scenarios, i.e. Hydrocarbon Release, fire, explosion and dispersion of combustion products. The consequence of such scenarios, when combined, can be more severe than their individual impact. Hence, actual impact can be only represented by integration of above mentioned events. A novel methodology is proposed to model an evolving accident scenario during an incidental Release of LNG in a complex processing facility. The methodology is applied to a case study considering transitional scenarios namely spill, pool formation and evaporation of LNG, dispersion of natural gas, and the consequent fire, explosion and dispersion of combustion products using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Probit functions are employed to analyze individual impacts and a ranking method is used to combine various impacts to identify risk during the transitional events. The results confirmed that in a large and complex facility, an LNG fire can transit to a vapor cloud explosion if the necessary conditions are met, i.e. the flammable range, ignition source with enough energy and congestion/confinement level. Therefore, the integrated consequences are more severe than those associated with the individual ones, and need to be properly assessed. This study would provide an insight for an effective analysis of potential consequences of an LNG spill in any LNG processing facility and it can be useful for the safety measured design of process facilities.

  • resilience analysis of a remote offshore oil and gas facility for a potential Hydrocarbon Release
    Risk Analysis, 2018
    Co-Authors: Adnan Sarwar, Faisal Khan, Majeed Abimbola, Lesley A James
    Abstract:

    Resilience is the capability of a system to adjust its functionality during a disturbance or perturbation. The present work attempts to quantify resilience as a function of reliability, vulnerability, and maintainability. The approach assesses proactive and reactive defense mechanisms along with operational factors to respond to unwanted disturbances and perturbation. This article employs a Bayesian network format to build a resilience model. The application of the model is tested on Hydrocarbon-Release scenarios during an offloading operation in a remote and harsh environment. The model identifies requirements for robust recovery and adaptability during an unplanned scenario related to a Hydrocarbon Release. This study attempts to relate the resilience capacity of a system to the system's absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities. These factors influence predisaster and postdisaster strategies that can be mapped to enhance the resilience of the system.

  • A conceptual offshore oil and gas process accident model
    Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2010
    Co-Authors: M.f. Kujath, Paul Amyotte, Faisal Khan
    Abstract:

    The purpose of this paper is to present and discuss an accident prevention model for offshore oil and gas processing environments. The accidents that are considered in this work relate specifically to Hydrocarbon Release scenarios and any escalating events that follow. Using reported industry data, the elements to prevent an accident scenario are identified and placed within a conceptual model to depict the accident progression. The proposed accident model elements are represented as safety barriers designed to prevent the accident scenario from developing. The accident model is intended to be a tool for highlighting vulnerabilities of oil and gas processing operations and to provide guidance on how to minimize their hazards. These vulnerabilities are discussed by applying the 1988 Piper Alpha and the 2005 BP Texas City disaster scenarios to the model.