Hydrological Extreme

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Lawrence Okello - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • hydroclimatology of lake victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011
    Co-Authors: Sadiq Ibrahim Khan, Pradeep Adhikari, Yang Hong, Humberto Vergara, Robert F Adler, Fritz Policelli, Dan Irwin, Tesfaye Korme, Lawrence Okello
    Abstract:

    Abstract. Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of Hydrological Extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6) is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to early June. The spatially distributed model inputs, states, and outputs, were found to be useful for understanding the hydrologic behavior at the catchment scale. The monthly peak runoff is observed in the months of April, May and November. The analysis revealed a linear relationship between rainfall and runoff for both wet and dry seasons. Satellite precipitation forcing data showed the potential to be used not only for the investigation of water balance but also for addressing issues pertaining to sustainability of the resources at the catchment scale.

Robert F Adler - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • hydroclimatology of lake victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011
    Co-Authors: Sadiq Ibrahim Khan, Pradeep Adhikari, Yang Hong, Humberto Vergara, Robert F Adler, Fritz Policelli, Dan Irwin, Tesfaye Korme, Lawrence Okello
    Abstract:

    Abstract. Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of Hydrological Extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6) is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to early June. The spatially distributed model inputs, states, and outputs, were found to be useful for understanding the hydrologic behavior at the catchment scale. The monthly peak runoff is observed in the months of April, May and November. The analysis revealed a linear relationship between rainfall and runoff for both wet and dry seasons. Satellite precipitation forcing data showed the potential to be used not only for the investigation of water balance but also for addressing issues pertaining to sustainability of the resources at the catchment scale.

Jurgen Herget - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • past Hydrological Extreme events in a changing climate
    Catena, 2015
    Co-Authors: Gerardo Benito, Mark G Macklin, K M Cohen, Jurgen Herget
    Abstract:

    This paper describes developments in the analysis and interpretation of Holocene fluvial chronologies over the past 25 years. Particular consideration is given to meta-analysis approaches pioneered by Macklin and Lewin (2003), using radiocarbon-dated fluvial deposits in Britain, which have transformed fluvial geochronologies and correlations with climate and land-use records worldwide. During the last decade methodological developments have addressed issues such as correction for the shape of the radiocarbon calibration curve in the probability analysis of dated fluvial units and for variable alluvial unit preservation. The number of regional database analyses of fluvial sedimentary archives has also expanded significantly during the past decade, with studies now available for Africa, the Mediterranean region, India, Ireland, New Zealand, Poland, the Rhine catchment and the UK. Methods for incorporating optically stimulated luminescence ages in the probability analysis have also been developed and are illustrated using the database of Eastern Mediterranean dated fluvial deposits. There is considerable potential for meta-analysis research to inform long-term flood risk assessment, to evaluate short-term climate and land-use change impacts on flooding and river behaviour, and to test landscape evolution models.

Sadiq Ibrahim Khan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • hydroclimatology of lake victoria region using hydrologic model and satellite remote sensing data
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2011
    Co-Authors: Sadiq Ibrahim Khan, Pradeep Adhikari, Yang Hong, Humberto Vergara, Robert F Adler, Fritz Policelli, Dan Irwin, Tesfaye Korme, Lawrence Okello
    Abstract:

    Abstract. Study of hydro-climatology at a range of temporal scales is important in understanding and ultimately mitigating the potential severe impacts of Hydrological Extreme events such as floods and droughts. Using daily in-situ data over the last two decades combined with the recently available multiple-years satellite remote sensing data, we analyzed and simulated, with a distributed hydrologic model, the hydro-climatology in Nzoia, one of the major contributing sub-basins of Lake Victoria in the East African highlands. The basin, with a semi arid climate, has no sustained base flow contribution to Lake Victoria. The short spell of high discharge showed that rain is the prime cause of floods in the basin. There is only a marginal increase in annual mean discharge over the last 21 years. The 2-, 5- and 10- year peak discharges, for the entire study period showed that more years since the mid 1990's have had high peak discharges despite having relatively less annual rain. The study also presents the hydrologic model calibration and validation results over the Nzoia basin. The spatiotemporal variability of the water cycle components were quantified using a hydrologic model, with in-situ and multi-satellite remote sensing datasets. The model is calibrated using daily observed discharge data for the period between 1985 and 1999, for which model performance is estimated with a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.87 and 0.23% bias. The model validation showed an error metrics with NSCE of 0.65 and 1.04% bias. Moreover, the hydrologic capability of satellite precipitation (TRMM-3B42 V6) is evaluated. In terms of reconstruction of the water cycle components the spatial distribution and time series of modeling results for precipitation and runoff showed considerable agreement with the monthly model runoff estimates and gauge observations. Runoff values responded to precipitation events that occurred across the catchment during the wet season from March to early June. The spatially distributed model inputs, states, and outputs, were found to be useful for understanding the hydrologic behavior at the catchment scale. The monthly peak runoff is observed in the months of April, May and November. The analysis revealed a linear relationship between rainfall and runoff for both wet and dry seasons. Satellite precipitation forcing data showed the potential to be used not only for the investigation of water balance but also for addressing issues pertaining to sustainability of the resources at the catchment scale.

Francesca Becherini - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a critical analysis of the definitions of climate and Hydrological Extreme events
    Quaternary International, 2020
    Co-Authors: Dario Camuffo, Antonio Della Valle, Francesca Becherini
    Abstract:

    Abstract Extreme weather and climate events, although rare at any particular location, can lead to different amount of loss to exposed human and natural systems, even to disasters. In this paper, the most authoritative definitions of “Extreme events” given by the World Meteorological Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been considered, as well as the underlying basic concepts, i.e., selected intensity levels, selected percentiles, multiples of the standard deviation, return period, distribution tails, imprint left, cause-effect relationships, natural disasters. Definitions and criteria have been tested with real world case studies using long instrumental records (300 years of daily temperature and 200 years of daily precipitation in Bologna, Italy) and proxy series (1000 years of Venice lagoon frozen over and 300 years of Po River outflow). The analysis reveals that each definition leads to particular consequences, e.g., in the peak over threshold theory, if the threshold is expressed in absolute terms, the number of Extreme events may change with the climate period as tested with the Venice case study; as opposed, the relative definition based on percentiles or standard deviation will keep unchanged this frequency. Again, considering Extreme events those external to the 10th or 90th percentile of the distribution may lead to a return period too short, e.g., 10 days for daily records, while a 10 years return period would require 1st or 99th percentiles, as tested with the daily temperature and precipitation in Bologna. In addition, the distribution of a series may substantially change shape passing from daily to monthly and yearly averages as tested with the series taken as examples. The specific case of proxies is also considered analysing their uncertainties and categorization. The lagoon frozen over as a consequence of exceptionally severe winters constitutes an example of Extremes based on an absolute threshold, as well as cause-effect relationship, and the return period was highly affected by the change of climate periods. The example of the overflow of the Po River suggests that the occurrence of Extremes, and their intensity, may be altered by other factors that concur to the final result.