The Experts below are selected from a list of 288 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Geoffrey J D Hewings - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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household disaggregation and forecasting in a regional econometric input output Model
Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2016Co-Authors: Geoffrey J D Hewings, Kurt KratenaAbstract:Abstract The overwhelming attention to disaggregation of the interindustry components of the regional economy has neglected the problems generated by the adoption of the representative household in the Modeling of economic impacts and forecasting in many regional economic Models. Drawing on a recently modified regional econometric input–output Model (REIM) for the Chicago metropolitan region in which households were disaggregated by age (Kim et al., Econ Syst Res. doi: 10.1080/09535314.2014.991778 , 2014), this paper provides an assessment of the differences generated by consumption of a representative and disaggregated households using data at the corresponding level of aggregation. The results reveal that the total effects of disaggregation that can be ascribed to population ageing vary by a much smaller extent than those generated by Model specification and data. The disaggregate REIM with heterogeneous households by age yields smaller RMSEs than the aggregate REIM with a representative household, but a statistical testing suggests that forecasting gains from disaggregation are modest compared to the aggregate Model.
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the extended econometric input output Model with heterogeneous household demand system
Economic Systems Research, 2015Co-Authors: Kurt Kratena, Geoffrey J D HewingsAbstract:This paper proposes an extension to the regional econometric Input-Output Model (REIM) [Conway, R.S. (1990) The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. International Regional Science Review , 13, 141-165; Israilevich, P.R., G.J.D. Hewings, M. Sonis and G.R. Schindler (1997) Forecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model. Journal of Regional Science , 37, 565-590]. We integrate a demand system with age and income parameters into the REIM. The extended Model thus addresses concerns about the effects of household heterogeneity. The initial testing is conducted with a Model for the Chicago metropolitan area. First, using aggregate expenditure data by income and age groups, the almost ideal demand system with group fixed effects is constructed. Next, the estimated demand system is linked to the REIM to reflect long-term changes in the age and income distribution of households. The long-range simulation from the extended Model takes into account structural changes in expenditure type stemming from changing demographic composition. The extended Model further broadens the scope of impact analysis under various scenarios associated with age and income changes.
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forecasting structural change with a regional econometric input output Model
Journal of Regional Science, 1997Co-Authors: Philip R Israilevich, Geoffrey J D Hewings, Michael Sonis, Graham R SchindlerAbstract:The sophistication of regional economic Models has been demonstrated in several ways, most recently in the form of linking several Modeling systems or in the expansion in the number of equations that can be manipulated successfully to produce impact analyses or forecasts. In this paper, an alternative perspective is employed. What do regional macro-level forecasts indicate about the process of structural change? A new methodology is illustrated that enables analysts to make forecasts of detailed structural change in the interindustry relations in an economy. Using a regional econometric-Input-Output Model developed for the Chicago Metropolitan region, derived Input-Output tables are extracted for the period 1975-2016. These tables are then analyzed to determine the forecasted direction of structural changes for the region. The innovation illustrated here is based on a Model that exploits the general equilibrium spirit of computable general equilibrium Models through the adjustment of input coefficients to clear markets.
Xin Zhou - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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how does trade adjustment influence national inventory of open economies accounting for embodied carbon emissions based on multi region input output Model
Environmental Systems Research, 2009Co-Authors: Xin ZhouAbstract:Current national GHG accounting which does not consider emissions embodied in trade may cause issues such as carbon leakage from Annex I to non-Annex I countries through trade of carbon-intensive goods. Among other measures to address this issue, this paper presents an alternative approach by trade adjustment to national CO2 accounting with application to ten economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Japan and USA) in the year 2000, based on two responsibility allocation schemes: i) consumer responsibility and ii) shared producer and consumer responsibility. A multi-region Input-Output Model and a single-region Input-Output Model are applied to calculate embodied emissions, and the results are compared. Based on consumer responsibility, embodied CO2 accounted for 13% of total national responsible emissions of ten economies. Trade adjustments also indicate significant changes to current national inventories of ten economies, ranging from –525 Mt-CO2 in China to 543 Mt-CO2 in USA. In terms of trade balance of embodied CO2, USA, Japan and Singapore have a deficit while other economies, in particular China, have a trade surplus.
Kurt Kratena - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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household disaggregation and forecasting in a regional econometric input output Model
Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2016Co-Authors: Geoffrey J D Hewings, Kurt KratenaAbstract:Abstract The overwhelming attention to disaggregation of the interindustry components of the regional economy has neglected the problems generated by the adoption of the representative household in the Modeling of economic impacts and forecasting in many regional economic Models. Drawing on a recently modified regional econometric input–output Model (REIM) for the Chicago metropolitan region in which households were disaggregated by age (Kim et al., Econ Syst Res. doi: 10.1080/09535314.2014.991778 , 2014), this paper provides an assessment of the differences generated by consumption of a representative and disaggregated households using data at the corresponding level of aggregation. The results reveal that the total effects of disaggregation that can be ascribed to population ageing vary by a much smaller extent than those generated by Model specification and data. The disaggregate REIM with heterogeneous households by age yields smaller RMSEs than the aggregate REIM with a representative household, but a statistical testing suggests that forecasting gains from disaggregation are modest compared to the aggregate Model.
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the extended econometric input output Model with heterogeneous household demand system
Economic Systems Research, 2015Co-Authors: Kurt Kratena, Geoffrey J D HewingsAbstract:This paper proposes an extension to the regional econometric Input-Output Model (REIM) [Conway, R.S. (1990) The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model. International Regional Science Review , 13, 141-165; Israilevich, P.R., G.J.D. Hewings, M. Sonis and G.R. Schindler (1997) Forecasting Structural Change with a Regional Econometric Input-Output Model. Journal of Regional Science , 37, 565-590]. We integrate a demand system with age and income parameters into the REIM. The extended Model thus addresses concerns about the effects of household heterogeneity. The initial testing is conducted with a Model for the Chicago metropolitan area. First, using aggregate expenditure data by income and age groups, the almost ideal demand system with group fixed effects is constructed. Next, the estimated demand system is linked to the REIM to reflect long-term changes in the age and income distribution of households. The long-range simulation from the extended Model takes into account structural changes in expenditure type stemming from changing demographic composition. The extended Model further broadens the scope of impact analysis under various scenarios associated with age and income changes.
Esther Velazquez - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an input output Model of water consumption analysing intersectoral water relationships in andalusia
Ecological Economics, 2006Co-Authors: Esther VelazquezAbstract:Abstract This paper presents an input–output Model of sectoral water consumption, created by combining the extended Leontief input–output Model with the Model of energy use developed by Proops. The analysis is applied to Andalusia, a region situated in the South of Spain which is characterized by water shortage. We determine which economic sectors consume the greatest quantities of water, both directly and indirectly, and to what extent this natural resource may become a limiting factor in the growth of certain production sectors. The Model allows us to distinguish between direct and indirect consumption, thus offering the possibility of designing an economic and environmental policy oriented towards water saving. Additionally, the Model allows simulation of possible changes in water consumption caused by certain environmental measures, as well as their consequences on the regional economy.
Neri Salvadori - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Exhaustible Resources in a Dynamic Input-Output Model with 'Classical' Features
Economic Systems Research, 1997Co-Authors: Heinz D. Kurz, Neri SalvadoriAbstract:This paper discusses the problem of exhaustible resources in a dynamic Input-Output Model with 'classical' features. Both the quantity side and the price and distribution side are discussed. The argument is developed using the simplifying assump- tions that there is no technical progress and that no new deposits of the exhaustible resources are discovered. To avoid the ' end-of-world' scenario, it is assumed that there is a 'backstop technology': this implies that exhaustible resources are useful but not necessary in the production and reproduction of commodities. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of paths of prices, quantities produced, and stocks of resources converging to the ultralong-period position is determined, provided that the backstop technology exhibits some appropriate properties. In addition, an algorithm to determine these paths is suggested. A numerical example illustrates the findings.
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Exhaustible Resources in a Dynamic Input–Output Model with ‘Classical’ Features
Economic Systems Research, 1997Co-Authors: Heinz D. Kurz, Neri SalvadoriAbstract:This paper discusses the problem of exhaustible resources in a dynamic input–output Model with ‘classical’ features. Both the quantity side and the price and distribution side are discussed. The argument is developed using the simplifying assump- tions that there is no technical progress and that no new deposits of the exhaustible resources are discovered. To avoid the ' end-of-world’ scenario, it is assumed that there is a ‘backstop technology’: this implies that exhaustible resources are useful but not necessary in the production and reproduction of commodities. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of paths of prices, quantities produced, and stocks of resources converging to the ultralong-period position is determined, provided that the backstop technology exhibits some appropriate properties. In addition, an algorithm to determine these paths is suggested. A numerical example illustrates the findings.
