The Experts below are selected from a list of 50553 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Philipp Deschermeier - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting – The Case of Germany
Journal of Population Ageing, 2020Co-Authors: Patrizio Vanella, Philipp DeschermeierAbstract:The future Development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for most countries in Europe, urgently need adequate population forecasts to identify future problems regarding social security systems as one determinant of overall Macroeconomic Development. This contribution proposes a stochastic cohort-component model that uses simulation techniques based on stochastic models for fertility, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focused on quantifying the uncertainty of future Development as previous studies have tended to underestimate future risk. The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2045. The results provide detailed insight into the future population structure, disaggregated into both sexes and age groups. Moreover, the uncertainty in the forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup.
Gatis Bazbauers - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The role of forest biotechonomy industry in the Macroeconomic Development model of the national economy of Latvia: an in-depth insight and results
Energy Procedia, 2018Co-Authors: Reinis Azis, Andra Blumberga, Gatis BazbauersAbstract:Abstract By using system dynamic modelling, this research evaluates the role of Latvian forest biotechonomic – more efficient exploitation of natural resources and higher added-value in processing of biological goods – industry in the Macroeconomic Development model of the national economy of Latvia by year 2047. In addition, research primarily focusses on three notable Macroeconomic sectors – natural resource exploitation, education and healthcare. For the purposes of investigation, a causal loop diagram and corresponding system dynamics model of the national economy of Latvia was developed. By introduction of forest biotechonomy in the national economic model, results show that financial resources become more available for education and healthcare sectors; however, not to the significant level formerly anticipated. Furthermore, forest biotechonomy introduction also reinforces further Development of high-added value industries and general economic growth via relative productivity increase and prolonging of relative working hours. Such results are achieved while proportionally diminishing impact of economic growth on environment This research indicates that forest biotechonomy could be considered an influential and sustainable additional driver of economic growth in Latvia in the years to come. Furthermore, by highlighting certain limitations of the particular investigation, this research sets out potential realms of further research to come.
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The role of forest biotechonomy industry in the Macroeconomic Development model of the national economy of Latvia: a system dynamics approach
Energy Procedia, 2017Co-Authors: Reinis Azis, Andra Blumberga, Gatis BazbauersAbstract:Abstract With a rapidly expanding global economic growth, issues of sustainability and potential impact on environment become more pressing. While it is clear that future growth should focus on more efficient exploitation of natural resources and higher added-value in processing of biological goods (referred to as biotechonomy), there is an avenue for future research investigating the role of biotechonomic sectors’ contribution to national economies. This research attempts to fill that gap. By using system dynamics, this research evaluates the role of Latvian forest biotechonomic industry in Macroeconomic Development model of the national economy of Latvia. In addition, research primarily focusses on three notable Macroeconomic sectors – natural resource exploitation, education and healthcare. It is assumed that these, as well as other essential segments of national economies, are linked in an endogenous system, constantly reinforcing each other and being subject to certain causalities among them. For the purposes of investigation, a causal loop diagram and corresponding system dynamics model of the national economy of Latvia was developed. By introduction of forest biotechonomy in the national economic model, indicative results show that financial resources become more available for education and healthcare. Furthermore, biotechonomy introduction also reinforces further Development of high-added value industries and general economic growth via productivity increase and prolonging of total working hours, based on health improvement. This is achieved while proportionally diminishing impact of growth on environment and generally decarbonizing traditional bio-economic sectors.
Vladimír Tomšík - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Makroekonomický vývoj České republiky, Maďarska a Polska v letech 1990-1996 [Macroeconomic Development in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland in 1990-1996]
Politicka Ekonomie, 1998Co-Authors: Vladimír TomšíkAbstract:The goal of article is a comparison of transition process in three central Europe countries. The first three parts are dedicated to a Development in the Czech Republic, the Hungary and the Poland. The fourth part is dedicated to a comparison of their Macroeconomic Development. The conclusion contains a comparison of stabilisation programs, with regard to thier external balance problems and possibilities of fiscal policy.
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Makroekonomický vývoj České republiky, Maďarska a Polska v letech 1990-1996
Politicka Ekonomie, 1998Co-Authors: Vladimír TomšíkAbstract:The goal of article is a comparison of transition process in three central Europe countries. The first three parts are dedicated to a Development in the Czech Republic, the Hungary and the Poland. The fourth part is dedicated to a comparison of their Macroeconomic Development. The conclusion contains a comparison of stabilisation programs, with regard to thier external balance problems and possibilities of fiscal policy.
Patrizio Vanella - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A Probabilistic Cohort-Component Model for Population Forecasting – The Case of Germany
Journal of Population Ageing, 2020Co-Authors: Patrizio Vanella, Philipp DeschermeierAbstract:The future Development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for most countries in Europe, urgently need adequate population forecasts to identify future problems regarding social security systems as one determinant of overall Macroeconomic Development. This contribution proposes a stochastic cohort-component model that uses simulation techniques based on stochastic models for fertility, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focused on quantifying the uncertainty of future Development as previous studies have tended to underestimate future risk. The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2045. The results provide detailed insight into the future population structure, disaggregated into both sexes and age groups. Moreover, the uncertainty in the forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup.
Pingyao Lai - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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China's Macroeconomic Development: Stages and Nonlinear Convergence
China & World Economy, 2006Co-Authors: Pingyao LaiAbstract:The central theme of this paper is that China's Macroeconomic Development can be divided into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China's Macroeconomic performance. Copyright Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences 2006.
