Macroeconomic Instability

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Aysit Tansel - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the role of Macroeconomic Instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth the case of turkey 1963 1999
    Applied Economics, 2005
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metinozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between Macroeconomic Instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963–1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run.

  • The role of Macroeconomic Instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963–1999
    Applied Economics, 2005
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metin-ozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between Macroeconomic Instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963–1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run.

  • Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999
    SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metin-ozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationships between Macroeconomic Instability, capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. We use recent time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, to analyze empirical relationships between the variables of interest. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and hence her growth. Furthermore, chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to become a serious impediment to the public investment, especially, its infrastructural component, and shattered or, even reversed the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run. Therefore, Turkish experience has shown that Macroeconomic Instability not only deteriorates economic growth but it could also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.

Mustafa Ismihan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The Role of Macroeconomic Instability on Economic Growth Rate: The Case of Colombia, 1950-2009
    2012
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Johanna Alejandra Pulido Pedraza
    Abstract:

    The main objective of this thesis is to investigate the role ofMacroeconomic Instability on economic growth in Colombia, by utilizing aproduction function approach, over the 1950-2009 period. Additionally, therole of openness and capital formation (both physical and human) oneconomic growth are investigated. In doing so, this thesis has used moderntime series techniques, such as unit roots, cointegration analysis and errorcorrection models.Both the descriptive and econometric evidence show that the recurrentMacroeconomic Instability episodes seriously and negatively affected thegrowth potential of the Colombian economy during the 1950-2009 period.Empirical results also suggest that the growth in output is positively affectedfrom physical and human capital formation but negatively affected fromopenness over the long term. Additionally, it is also found that in the longterm, the output can adapt itself faster (in approximately three years) to thechanges in Macroeconomic Instability and capital stock.----Bu tezin temel amaci makroekonomik istikrarsizligin Kolombiya’ninekonomik buyumesi uzerindeki etkisini 1950-2009 yillari arasinda uretimfonksiyonu yaklasimiyla arastirmaktir. Ek olarak, disa aciklik ve sermayebirikiminin (hem fiziki hem de beseri) ekonomik buyume uzerindeki rolu analizedilmistir. Bunun icin bu tez birim kokler, esbutunlesim analizleri ve hataduzeltme modelleri gibi modern zaman serisi tekniklerini kullanmistir.Tasviri ve ampirik sonuclar, tekrar eden makroekonomik istikrarsizliksureclerinin, 1950-2009 donemi boyunca, Kolombiya ekonomisinin buyumepotansiyelini ciddi ve olumsuz etkiledigini gostermektedir. Ampirik sonuclar,ciktidaki buyumenin, uzun vadede, fiziki ve beseri sermaye birikimindenolumlu ancak disa acikliktan olumsuz etkilendigini de gostermektedir. Ayrica,uzun vadede, ciktinin kendisini sermaye birikimindeki degisime vemakroekonomik istikrarsizliga daha cabuk (yaklasik uc yil icinde) uyarladigibulunmustur.

  • the role of Macroeconomic Instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth the case of turkey 1963 1999
    Applied Economics, 2005
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metinozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between Macroeconomic Instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963–1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run.

  • The role of Macroeconomic Instability in public and private capital accumulation and growth: the case of Turkey 1963–1999
    Applied Economics, 2005
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metin-ozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationship(s) between Macroeconomic Instability, public and private capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963–1999. Time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, are used. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and growth. Furthermore, the Turkish experience indicates that chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to be a serious impediment to public investment, especially to its infrastructural component, and shatters, or even reverses, the complementarity between public and private investment in the long run.

  • Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: The Case of Turkey 1963-1999
    SSRN Electronic Journal, 2003
    Co-Authors: Mustafa Ismihan, Kivilcim Metin-ozcan, Aysit Tansel
    Abstract:

    This study investigates the empirical relationships between Macroeconomic Instability, capital accumulation and growth in Turkey over the period 1963-1999. We use recent time series econometric techniques, such as cointegration and impulse response analysis, to analyze empirical relationships between the variables of interest. The results of this paper suggest that the chronic and increasing Macroeconomic Instability of the Turkish economy has seriously affected her capital formation and hence her growth. Furthermore, chronic Macroeconomic Instability seems to become a serious impediment to the public investment, especially, its infrastructural component, and shattered or, even reversed the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run. Therefore, Turkish experience has shown that Macroeconomic Instability not only deteriorates economic growth but it could also reverse the complementarity between public and private investment in the long-run.

Thomas Grennes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the real exchange rate and Macroeconomic performance in sub saharan africa
    Journal of Development Economics, 1993
    Co-Authors: Dhaneshwar Ghura, Thomas Grennes
    Abstract:

    Abstract Pooled time-series and cross-section data for 33 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) confirm the negative relationship between the real exchange rate (RER) misalignment and economic performance (economic growth, imports, exports, saving and investment). Macroeconomic Instability also slows growth and other indicators of performance. Higher levels of misalignment are accompanied by higher levels of Macroeconomic Instability. Both lower levels of RER misalignment and Instability lead to better economic performance. The Edwards model of RER determination performs well for the region. Black market premia tend to show a greater degree of misalignment in RER than alternative measures.

Paul Kattuman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Macroeconomic Instability and Corporate Failure: The Role of the Legal System
    Review of Law & Economics, 2009
    Co-Authors: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Chris Higson, Sean Holly, Paul Kattuman
    Abstract:

    We examine how Macroeconomic Instability affects risk of bankruptcy and liquidation. In periods of Macroeconomic Instability more firms become financially distressed, while the number of potential acquirers falls. Reorganization systems such as Chapter 11 can decouple liquidation from Macroeconomic conditions. We develop a model in which a firm's bankruptcy and acquisition hazards are co-determined by firm-level and sector-level factors, and by Macroeconomic conditions. As a control, we also estimate the model for the UK, which is an economy without an equivalent system to Chapter 11. Differences in the responsiveness of bankruptcy to Instability are largely attributable to reorganization under Chapter 11.

  • Macroeconomic Instability and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms
    Economica, 2009
    Co-Authors: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Chris Higson, Sean Holly, Paul Kattuman
    Abstract:

    We study the impact of the Macroeconomic environment on business exit in a world where acquisition and bankruptcy are co-determined. We estimate competing risk hazard regression models using data on UK quoted firms spanning a 38-year period that witnessed several business cycles. We find that the processes determining bankruptcies and acquisitions depend on the Macroeconomic environment. In particular, Macroeconomic Instability has opposing effects on bankruptcy hazard and acquisition hazard, raising the former and lowering the latter. While bankruptcy hazard is counter-cyclical and acquisition hazard pro-cyclical, the US business cycle is a better predictor than the UK cycle itself.

  • Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms
    2007
    Co-Authors: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Chris Higson, Sean Holly, Paul Kattuman
    Abstract:

    We study the impact of Macroeconomic Instability on business exit in a world where acquisition and bankruptcy are co-determined. Our objective is to discover how the processes that determine bankruptcies and acquisitions depend on the Macroeconomic environment, particularly, Macroeconomic Instability. To this end we estimate competing risks hazard regression models using data on UK quoted firms spanning a thirty-eight year period that witnessed several business cycles. We find that Macroeconomic Instability has opposite effects on bankruptcy hazard and acquisition hazard, raising the former and lowering the latter. While it is not surprising that bankruptcy hazard is counter-cyclical and acquisition hazard pro-cyclical, it is noteworthy that the US business cycle is a better predictor of UK acquisitions and bankruptcies than the UK cycle itself.

  • Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms *
    SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007
    Co-Authors: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Chris Higson, Sean Holly, Paul Kattuman
    Abstract:

    We study the impact of Macroeconomic Instability on business exit in a world where acquisition and bankruptcy are co-determined. Our objective is to discover how the processes that determine bankruptcies and acquisitions depend on the Macroeconomic environment, particularly, Macroeconomic Instability. To this end we estimate competing risks hazard regression models using data on UK quoted firms spanning a thirty-eight year period that witnessed several business cycles. We find that Macroeconomic Instability has opposite effects on bankruptcy hazard and acquisition hazard, raising the former and lowering the latter. While it is not surprising that bankruptcy hazard is counter-cyclical and acquisition hazard pro-cyclical, it is noteworthy that the US business cycle is a better predictor of UK acquisitions and bankruptcies than the UK cycle itself.

  • Business Failure in UK and US Quoted Firms: Impact of Macroeconomic Instability and the Role of Legal Institutions
    2004
    Co-Authors: Arnab Bhattacharjee, Chris Higson, Sean Holly, Paul Kattuman
    Abstract:

    Firms exit through the mutually precluding events of bankruptcy and acquisition. We use a competing risks hazard regression model to identify the characteristics leading to each of these two outcomes using over thirty years of data on US and UK quoted firms. We find evidence about the way in which Macroeconomic factors affect firm survival in these two economies, in addition to firm and industry-specific factors. Further, there are significant differences in the way in which firms in the US and the UK react to changes in the Macroeconomic environment and, particularly to Macroeconomic Instability. We argue that these differences in response may be attributable to differences in bankruptcy codes in the US and the UK.

Martín Uribe - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • real exchange rate targeting and Macroeconomic Instability
    Journal of International Economics, 2003
    Co-Authors: Martín Uribe
    Abstract:

    Abstract Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the Macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate—defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables—is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate Instability due to self-fulfilling expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sluggish-price environments.

  • Real Exchange Rate Targeting and Macroeconomic Instability
    SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
    Co-Authors: Martín Uribe
    Abstract:

    Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the Macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate - defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables - is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling revisions in expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sticky-price environments.