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Patrick J Kehoe - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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modern Macroeconomics in practice how theory is shaping policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2006Co-Authors: Varadarajan V Chari, Patrick J KehoeAbstract:Theoretical advances in Macroeconomics made in the last three decades have had a major influence on macroeconomic policy analysis. Moreover, over the last several decades, the United States and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests. The three key developments that have shaped macroeconomic policy analysis are the Lucas critique of policy evaluation due to Robert Lucas, the time inconsistency critique of discre-tionary policy due to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, and the development of quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models following Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott.
George A Akerlof - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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behavioral Macroeconomics and macroeconomic behavior
The American Economic Review, 2002Co-Authors: George A AkerlofAbstract:Think about Richard Scarry’s Cars and Trucks and Things That Go. Think about what that book would have looked like in sequential decades of the last century had Richard Scarry been alive in each of them to delight and amuse children and parents. Each subsequent decade has seen the development of ever more specialized vehicles. We started with the Model T Ford. We now have more models of backhoe loaders than even the most precocious fouryear-old can identify. What relevance does this have for economics? In the late 1960’s there was a shift in the job description of economic theorists. Prior to that time microeconomic theory was mainly concerned with analyzing the purely competitive, general-equilibrium model based upon profit maximization by firms and utility maximization by consumers. The Macroeconomics of the day, the so-called neoclassical synthesis, appended a fixed money wage to such a generalequilibrium system. “Sticky money wages” explained departures from full employment and business-cycle fluctuations. Since that time, both microand Macroeconomics have developed a Scarry-ful book of models designed to incorporate into economic theory a whole variety of realistic behaviors. For example, “The Market for ‘Lemons’ ” explored how markets with asymmetric information operate. Buyers and sellers commonly possess different, not identical, information. My paper examined the pathologies that may develop under these more realistic conditions. For me, the study of asymmetric information was a very first step toward the realization of a dream. That dream was the development of a behavioral Macroeconomics in the original spirit of John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory (1936). Macroeconomics would then no longer suffer from the “ad hockery” of the neoclassical synthesis, which had overridden the emphasis in The General Theory on the role of psychological and sociological factors, such as cognitive bias, reciprocity, fairness, herding, and social status. My dream was to strengthen macroeconomic theory by incorporating assumptions honed to the observation of such behavior. A team of people has participated in the realization of this dream. Kurt Vonnegut would call this team a kerass, “a group of people who are unknowingly working together toward some common goal fostered by a larger cosmic influence.” In this lecture I shall describe some of the behavioral models developed by this kerass to provide plausible explanations for macroeconomic phenomena which are central to Keynesian economics. For the sake of background, let me take you back a bit in time to review some history of macroeconomic thought. In the late 1960’s the New Classical economists saw the same weaknesses in the microfoundations of Macroeconomics that have motivated me. They hated its lack of rigor. And they sacked it. They then held a celebratory bonfire, with an article entitled “After Keynesian Macroeconomics.” The new version of Macroeconomics that they produced became standard in the 1970’s. Following its neoclassical synthesis predecessor, New Classical Macroeconomics was based on the competitive, general-equilibrium model. But it differed in being much more zealous in insisting that all decisions—consumption and labor supply by † This article is a revised version of the lecture George A. Akerlof delivered in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 8, 2001, when he received the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The article is copyright © The Nobel Foundation 2001 and is published here with the permission of the Nobel Foundation.
Joseph E Stiglitz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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agent based stock flow consistent Macroeconomics towards a benchmark model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016Co-Authors: Alessandro Caiani, Mauro Gallegati, Antoine Godin, Eugenio Caverzasi, Stephen Kinsella, Joseph E StiglitzAbstract:The paper moves from a discussion of the challenges posed by the crisis to standard Macroeconomics and the solutions adopted within the DSGE community. Although several recent improvements have enhanced the realism of standard models, we argue that major drawbacks still undermine their reliability. In particular, DSGE models still fail to recognize the complex adaptive nature of economic systems, and the implications of money endogeneity. The paper argues that a coherent and exhaustive representation of the inter-linkages between the real and financial sides of the economy should be a pivotal feature of every macroeconomic model and proposes a macroeconomic framework based on the combination of the Agent Based and Stock Flow Consistent approaches. The papers aims at contributing to the nascent AB-SFC literature under two fundamental respects: first, we develop a fully decentralized AB-SFC model with several innovative features, and we thoroughly validate it in order to check whether the model is a good candidate for policy analysis applications. Results suggest that the properties of the model match many empirical regularities, ranking among the best performers in the related literature, and that these properties are robust across different parameterizations. Second, the paper has also a methodological purpose in that we try to provide a set or rules and tools to build, calibrate, validate, and display AB-SFC models.
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rethinking Macroeconomics what failed and how to repair it
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2011Co-Authors: Joseph E StiglitzAbstract:The standard macroeconomic models have failed, by all the most important tests of scientific theory. They did not predict that the financial crisis would happen; and when it did, they understated its effects. Monetary authorities allowed bubbles to grow and focused on keeping inflation low, partly because the standard models suggested that low inflation was necessary and almost sufficient for efficiency and growth. After the crisis broke, policymakers relying on the models floundered. Notwithstanding the diversity of Macroeconomics, the sum of these failures points to the need for a fundamental re-examination of the models—and a reassertion of the lessons of modern general equilibrium theory that were seemingly forgotten in the years leading up to the crisis. This paper first describes the failures of the standard models in broad terms, and then develops the economics of deep downturns, and shows that such downturns are endogenous. Further, the paper argues that there have been systemic changes to the structure of the economy that made the economy more vulnerable to crisis, contrary to what the standard models argued. Finally, the paper contrasts the policy implications of our framework with those of the standard models.
Varadarajan V Chari - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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modern Macroeconomics in practice how theory is shaping policy
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2006Co-Authors: Varadarajan V Chari, Patrick J KehoeAbstract:Theoretical advances in Macroeconomics made in the last three decades have had a major influence on macroeconomic policy analysis. Moreover, over the last several decades, the United States and other countries have undertaken a variety of policy changes that are precisely what macroeconomic theory of the last 30 years suggests. The three key developments that have shaped macroeconomic policy analysis are the Lucas critique of policy evaluation due to Robert Lucas, the time inconsistency critique of discre-tionary policy due to Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, and the development of quantitative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models following Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott.
Wilson Peres - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Latin America's New Economic Model: Micro responses and economic restructuring
World Development, 2000Co-Authors: Nola Reinhardt, Wilson PeresAbstract:This paper introduces a special issue on the microeconomics of Latin America under the New Economic Model (NEM). The paper reviews the rationale and policies of the NEM, and analyzes the impact of the reforms at the macroeconomic, sectoral and microeconomic levels. At the firm level, the contributions to this issue demonstrate that a considerable adjustment process is taking place. As sectoral structural change indices demonstrate, however, this has not resulted in widespread shifts of resources between sectors, nor has it resulted in significant improvement in overall employment, productivity, and growth. The authors analyze the reasons for this disjuncture, and suggest policy alternatives. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
