The Experts below are selected from a list of 279 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
David A. Moser - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Risk Analysis Evaluation of Capacity Benefits
Waterpower '99, 1999Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Michael R. WalshAbstract:Since 1992, the Corps has required an economic evaluation of Major Rehabilitation spending comparable to that of new projects. A significant aspect of this evaluation is that it must explicitly account for the current and future reliability of the generating equipment without and with Rehabilitation. A risk-based life-cycle analysis framework was adopted that recognizes that the reliability of equipment declines with age and usage but can increase by repairs and Rehabilitations. These factors required some rethinking of how to measure capacity losses and capacity values especially within a Monte Carlo model typically used in the analysis. This paper describes the adoption and use of the HMA/TMA method for valuing hydropower capacity for Major Rehabilitation.
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The use of object-oriented Monte Carlo simulation to analyze hydropower Rehabilitation proposals
1995Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Michael R. Walsh, Craig A. StrusAbstract:This paper describes the underlying concept of economic risk analysis as prescribed for the Corps of Engineers Major Rehabilitation program. The development of a computer program to conduct the analysis of Rehabilitation proposals is described. Of particular interest is the graphical user interface that facilitates the entry of economic and reliability data and allows the user to develop and analyze many alternatives. The results of an example application using a prototype version of the model is presented.
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Moving Toward a Probability-Based Risk Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Major Rehabilitation Projects
1992Co-Authors: Daniel B. Taylor, Keith D. Hofseth, Leonard A. Shabman, David A. MoserAbstract:By the year 2010, 77% of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer's projects will be over 40 years old. The Corps wants to allocate its scarce Rehabilitation funds in a cost-effective manner. To do so requires the incorporation of risk in their benefit-cost analysis. This paper details their proposed risk analysis procedures. Problems in developing probabilities of unsatisfactory performance and in analyzing complex systems are pointed out. An example of a simple risk-based benefit-cost analysis is presented. The paper ends by pointing out that making risk-based benefit-cost analysis tractable for field personnel will be a difficult task.
Craig A. Strus - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The use of object-oriented Monte Carlo simulation to analyze hydropower Rehabilitation proposals
1995Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Michael R. Walsh, Craig A. StrusAbstract:This paper describes the underlying concept of economic risk analysis as prescribed for the Corps of Engineers Major Rehabilitation program. The development of a computer program to conduct the analysis of Rehabilitation proposals is described. Of particular interest is the graphical user interface that facilitates the entry of economic and reliability data and allows the user to develop and analyze many alternatives. The results of an example application using a prototype version of the model is presented.
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Development of Prototype Software for Risk-Based Benefit-Cost Analysis of Major Rehabilitation Proposals. Phases 1 and 2,
1994Co-Authors: Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Craig A. StrusAbstract:Abstract : This report documents the work done on the enhancement of a prototype simulation model for the risk-based economic analysis of proposals for Major Rehabilitation projects of Corps of Engineers' facilities during the period from September 1993 through October 1994. The original concept, design, and prototype development of the model began in December 1992 and the initial phase of the work, the building and testing of a Phase I prototype, concluded in August 1993, with an implemented prototype. This work was documented in an un-published technical report for the Institute for Water Resources, parts of which are abstracted herein. The success of the initial model development, in particular in terms of ease of use, flexibility and speed of operation as compared to existing, spread-sheet based methods, led to the determination to pursue further prototype development. The current work, Phase II, included additional efforts involving review of existing Rehabilitation proposals, enchancement of the model, enhancement of the user interface, and conceptual design and proof-of-concept testing of a model oriented towards navigation projects.
Richard M. Males - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The use of object-oriented Monte Carlo simulation to analyze hydropower Rehabilitation proposals
1995Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Michael R. Walsh, Craig A. StrusAbstract:This paper describes the underlying concept of economic risk analysis as prescribed for the Corps of Engineers Major Rehabilitation program. The development of a computer program to conduct the analysis of Rehabilitation proposals is described. Of particular interest is the graphical user interface that facilitates the entry of economic and reliability data and allows the user to develop and analyze many alternatives. The results of an example application using a prototype version of the model is presented.
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Development of Prototype Software for Risk-Based Benefit-Cost Analysis of Major Rehabilitation Proposals. Phases 1 and 2,
1994Co-Authors: Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Craig A. StrusAbstract:Abstract : This report documents the work done on the enhancement of a prototype simulation model for the risk-based economic analysis of proposals for Major Rehabilitation projects of Corps of Engineers' facilities during the period from September 1993 through October 1994. The original concept, design, and prototype development of the model began in December 1992 and the initial phase of the work, the building and testing of a Phase I prototype, concluded in August 1993, with an implemented prototype. This work was documented in an un-published technical report for the Institute for Water Resources, parts of which are abstracted herein. The success of the initial model development, in particular in terms of ease of use, flexibility and speed of operation as compared to existing, spread-sheet based methods, led to the determination to pursue further prototype development. The current work, Phase II, included additional efforts involving review of existing Rehabilitation proposals, enchancement of the model, enhancement of the user interface, and conceptual design and proof-of-concept testing of a model oriented towards navigation projects.
David Moser - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Risk-based Analysis of Major Rehabilitation of Hydraulic Structures Using REPAIR
1996Co-Authors: David MoserAbstract:This poster session presents a demonstration of a computer model developed by the Corps of Engineers to analyze investment proposals. The primary purpose of the model is evaluate investments that enhance the reliability, thereby reducing repairs and outages, and to extend the life of Corps managed Federal water resources investments The model uses basic information on economic costs and engineering reliability to estimate the life cycle cost of a project feature by Monte Carlo simulation. The reduction in these costs provide one of the justifications for Major Rehabilitation decisions.
Michael R. Walsh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Risk Analysis Evaluation of Capacity Benefits
Waterpower '99, 1999Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Michael R. WalshAbstract:Since 1992, the Corps has required an economic evaluation of Major Rehabilitation spending comparable to that of new projects. A significant aspect of this evaluation is that it must explicitly account for the current and future reliability of the generating equipment without and with Rehabilitation. A risk-based life-cycle analysis framework was adopted that recognizes that the reliability of equipment declines with age and usage but can increase by repairs and Rehabilitations. These factors required some rethinking of how to measure capacity losses and capacity values especially within a Monte Carlo model typically used in the analysis. This paper describes the adoption and use of the HMA/TMA method for valuing hydropower capacity for Major Rehabilitation.
-
The use of object-oriented Monte Carlo simulation to analyze hydropower Rehabilitation proposals
1995Co-Authors: David A. Moser, Richard M. Males, Walter M. Grayman, Michael R. Walsh, Craig A. StrusAbstract:This paper describes the underlying concept of economic risk analysis as prescribed for the Corps of Engineers Major Rehabilitation program. The development of a computer program to conduct the analysis of Rehabilitation proposals is described. Of particular interest is the graphical user interface that facilitates the entry of economic and reliability data and allows the user to develop and analyze many alternatives. The results of an example application using a prototype version of the model is presented.
