The Experts below are selected from a list of 360 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Andrei A Levchenko - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
the economics and politics of revoking NAFTA
IMF Economic Review, 2020Co-Authors: Raphael Auer, Barthelemy Bonadio, Andrei A LevchenkoAbstract:We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input–output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from − 2.7 to 2.23% in the USA. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked.
-
the economics and politics of revoking NAFTA
Social Science Research Network, 2018Co-Authors: Raphael Auer, Barthelemy Bonadio, Andrei A LevchenkoAbstract:We provide a quantitative assessment of both the aggregate and the distributional effects of revoking NAFTA using a multi-country, multi-sector, multi-factor model of world production and trade with global input-output linkages. Revoking NAFTA would reduce US welfare by about 0.2%, and Canadian and Mexican welfare by about 2%. The distributional impacts of revoking NAFTA across workers in different sectors are an order of magnitude larger in all three countries, ranging from -2.7 to 2.26% in the United States. We combine the quantitative results with information on the geographic distribution of sectoral employment, and compute average real wage changes in each US congressional district, Mexican state, and Canadian province. We then examine the political correlates of the economic effects. Congressional district-level real wage changes are negatively correlated with the Trump vote share in 2016: districts that voted more for Trump would on average experience greater real wage reductions if NAFTA is revoked.
Raj Aggarwal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
equity market integration in the NAFTA region evidence from unit root and cointegration tests
International Review of Financial Analysis, 2005Co-Authors: Raj Aggarwal, Nyonyo A KyawAbstract:Abstract This study examines integration of the three participating equity markets before and after the 1993 passage of NAFTA based on daily, weekly, and monthly data. As expected, unit root tests for the overall period 1988–2001 and the two subperiods, 1988–1993 (pre-NAFTA) and 1994–2001 (post-NAFTA), indicate that stock prices are non-stationary but stock returns are generally stationary for all three markets for all three periods. However, daily, weekly, and monthly equity prices in the three NAFTA countries are cointegrated only for the post-NAFTA period. Similarly, US stock prices are more integrated with both Canadian and Mexican stock prices after the passage of NAFTA. This evidence of increased financial integration and co-movement in NAFTA equity markets after the passage of NAFTA has important implications for policymakers and managers.
-
equity market integration in the NAFTA region evidence from unit root and cointegration tests
Social Science Research Network, 2004Co-Authors: Raj Aggarwal, Nyonyo A KyawAbstract:This study examines integration of the three participating equity markets before and after the 1993 passage of NAFTA based on daily, weekly, and monthly data for seven years before and after the passage of NAFTA (1988-2001). As expected, unit root tests for the overall period 1988-2001 and the two sub-periods, 1988-1993 (pre-NAFTA) and 1994-2001 (post-NAFTA), indicate that stock prices are non-stationary but stock returns are generally stationary for all three markets for all three periods. However, daily, weekly, and monthly equity prices in the three NAFTA countries are cointegrated only for the post-NAFTA period. Similarly, US stock prices are more integrated with both Canadian and Mexican stock prices after the passage of NAFTA. This evidence of increased financial integration and co-movement in NAFTA equity markets after the passage of NAFTA has important implications for policy makers and managers.
Nyonyo A Kyaw - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
equity market integration in the NAFTA region evidence from unit root and cointegration tests
International Review of Financial Analysis, 2005Co-Authors: Raj Aggarwal, Nyonyo A KyawAbstract:Abstract This study examines integration of the three participating equity markets before and after the 1993 passage of NAFTA based on daily, weekly, and monthly data. As expected, unit root tests for the overall period 1988–2001 and the two subperiods, 1988–1993 (pre-NAFTA) and 1994–2001 (post-NAFTA), indicate that stock prices are non-stationary but stock returns are generally stationary for all three markets for all three periods. However, daily, weekly, and monthly equity prices in the three NAFTA countries are cointegrated only for the post-NAFTA period. Similarly, US stock prices are more integrated with both Canadian and Mexican stock prices after the passage of NAFTA. This evidence of increased financial integration and co-movement in NAFTA equity markets after the passage of NAFTA has important implications for policymakers and managers.
-
equity market integration in the NAFTA region evidence from unit root and cointegration tests
Social Science Research Network, 2004Co-Authors: Raj Aggarwal, Nyonyo A KyawAbstract:This study examines integration of the three participating equity markets before and after the 1993 passage of NAFTA based on daily, weekly, and monthly data for seven years before and after the passage of NAFTA (1988-2001). As expected, unit root tests for the overall period 1988-2001 and the two sub-periods, 1988-1993 (pre-NAFTA) and 1994-2001 (post-NAFTA), indicate that stock prices are non-stationary but stock returns are generally stationary for all three markets for all three periods. However, daily, weekly, and monthly equity prices in the three NAFTA countries are cointegrated only for the post-NAFTA period. Similarly, US stock prices are more integrated with both Canadian and Mexican stock prices after the passage of NAFTA. This evidence of increased financial integration and co-movement in NAFTA equity markets after the passage of NAFTA has important implications for policy makers and managers.
David I Stern - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
the effect of NAFTA on energy and environmental efficiency in mexico
Policy Studies Journal, 2007Co-Authors: David I SternAbstract:Prior to Mexico's entry to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to very optimistic. This article investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions-specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? A battery of tests is applied to these indicators for energy use and carbon, sulfur, and NOx emissions in the three countries. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and, in some cases, improve post-NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence across the three countries toward a lower intensity of energy use and emissions per unit of GDP. Although intensity is rising initially for some variables in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post-NAFTA. Per capita emissions of sulfur and NOx also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon, and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, although there is little, if any, sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre- and post-NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.
-
the effect of NAFTA on energy and environmental efficiency in mexico
Research Papers in Economics, 2005Co-Authors: David I SternAbstract:Prior to Mexico's entry to NAFTA predictions of the consequent impact on the environment in that country ranged from the dire to the very optimistic. This paper investigates NAFTA's outcomes in terms of energy use and the emission of atmospheric pollutants. Specifically, has entry into NAFTA led to a convergence or divergence in indicators of emissions, environmental efficiency, and emissions specific technology in Mexico, the United States, and Canada? Four emissions variables are considered: energy, carbon, sulfur, and NOx. Three different indicators of emissions and environmental efficiency are computed and tested for both convergence and the presence of a structural break associated with the introduction of NAFTA: energy or emissions per capita; energy or emissions intensity of GDP; and the state of technology in sulfur abatement and energy efficiency derived from a production frontier model estimated using the Kalman filter. Three convergence tests test for beta-convergence, sigma-convergence, and cointegration of the trends and the effect of NAFTA on these measures. I also test whether NAFTA induced a structural break in the trend of the various indicators. The results show that the extreme predictions of the outcomes of NAFTA have not materialized. Rather, trends that were already present before the introduction of NAFTA continue and in some cases improve post-NAFTA, but not yet in a dramatic way. There is strong evidence of convergence for all four intensity indicators across the three countries towards a lower intensity level. Though intensity is rising initially in some cases in Mexico, it eventually begins to fall post-NAFTA. Per capita measures for the two criteria pollutants also show convergence, but this is not the case for energy and carbon and the latter variables also drift moderately upwards. The state of technology in energy efficiency and sulfur abatement is improving in all countries, though there is little if any sign of convergence and NAFTA has no effect on the rate of technology diffusion. However, total energy use and carbon emissions increase both pre- and post- NAFTA and total NOx emissions increase in Mexico. Only total sulfur emissions are stable and falling in all three NAFTA partners.
Agasi, Abim Galau - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Pengaruh North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) terhadap Perekonomian Meksiko
Global dan Policy, 2020Co-Authors: Agasi, Abim GalauAbstract:ABSTRACTAt 1994, Mexico have a crisis result to domestic political instability and failures of the devaluation policy. Historically, the Mexican economic crisis had begin from 1980. The crisis in 1980 is result of Mexico’s foreign debt that fail to paid. Mexico made several attemps to rise from the economic crisis. One of the efforts is to be a member of NAFTA. To conform with NAFTA, Mexico changed some national policies. NAFTA is a regional institution for the North American that made by the government of the United States, Canada and Mexico. NAFTA implemented on January 1, 1994. NAFTA has three programs of cooperation, there are Free Trade Agreement, Environmental Cooperation and Labor Cooperation. NAFTA has gradually eliminate obstacles on cross-border trade in the region. NAFTA affected on Mexican economic growth because NAFTA has opened opportunity for Mexico to cooperate with the other NAFTA members. The cooperation aims to attract the foreign investment and increase the value of Mexican exports products, mainly agricultural products, so that GNP will growth and the economic growth will reached too.Keywords: Mexico, Economic Crisis, NAFTA, Cooperation, Economic Growth
