Nonproliferation

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Man-sung Yim - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Jeffrey W. Knopf - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation - Security Assurances and Nuclear Nonproliferation
    Contemporary Security Policy, 2013
    Co-Authors: Jeffrey W. Knopf
    Abstract:

    Providing assurances about security to another state or states is a potentially useful technique for achieving defense and foreign policy goals. Security assurances play an especially prominent role in the nuclear Nonproliferation regime. Empirical research remains limited, however, on the conditions that affect the effectiveness of security assurances. This paper seeks to clarify the different forms of assurance and to present preliminary hypotheses on the factors that affect how successful assurance strategies will be in promoting Nonproliferation.

  • Multilateral Cooperation on Nonproliferation
    2012
    Co-Authors: Jeffrey W. Knopf
    Abstract:

    Abstract : Global efforts to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have given rise to international regimes that cover nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, respectively. These regimes each have at their core a global treaty: the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). Over time, a number of other initiatives have sprung up alongside these treaties. Yet, while a tremendous amount of cooperative activity takes place beyond the core Nonproliferation treaties, there is very little research dedicated to a comparative analysis of these efforts. This project addresses this gap in our knowledge by providing the first systematic comparative analysis of cooperative Nonproliferation activities beyond the core treaties. It has two goals: to identify sources of cooperative Nonproliferation activities and to assess the effectiveness of such endeavors. The study utilizes the comparative case study method. Subject matter experts (SMEs) were recruited to write analyses of specific programs or sets of activities involving international cooperation on WMD Nonproliferation. The goal was to be as comprehensive as possible in the coverage of cooperative Nonproliferation activities, while still operating within the constraints of the project budget and the availability of appropriate SMEs. The PI developed a starting analytical framework that was provided ahead of time to the SMEs to guide their research and analysis. The participants then came together for a one-day workshop, held in Monterey, CA, on March 30, 2012. About 20 people participated in the invitation-only workshop. The researchers presented their initial findings and received feedback from designated discussants who had been recruited to comment on the papers. Researchers also received feedback from the other project participants and invited attendees of the workshop. They then revised their papers into final products.

  • security assurances and nuclear Nonproliferation
    Contemporary Security Policy, 2012
    Co-Authors: Jeffrey W. Knopf
    Abstract:

    Providing assurances about security to another state or states is a potentially useful technique for achieving defense and foreign policy goals. Security assurances play an especially prominent role in the nuclear Nonproliferation regime. Empirical research remains limited, however, on the conditions that affect the effectiveness of security assurances. This paper seeks to clarify the different forms of assurance and to present preliminary hypotheses on the factors that affect how successful assurance strategies will be in promoting Nonproliferation.

  • Nuclear Tradeoffs: Conflicts between U.S. National Security Strategy and Global Nonproliferation Efforts
    Nuclear Transformation, 2005
    Co-Authors: Jeffrey W. Knopf
    Abstract:

    The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the larger trends in U.S. national security policy of which the NPR is a part are in significant ways incompatible with existing international Nonproliferation arrangements—arrangements that are commonly called the “Nonproliferation regime.” The net effect of U.S. national security policies on nuclear Nonproliferation is likely to be negative; in other words, the NPR could actually increase the likelihood of nuclear proliferation. There are several policy measures that could mitigate the potential damage the NPR might inflict on global Nonproliferation efforts, but these measures are likely to have only a modest effect. The tradeoff between the NPR and traditional Nonproliferation approaches cannot be entirely eliminated.

Matthew Kroenig - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Nuclear Nonproliferation
    Oxford Scholarship Online, 2018
    Co-Authors: Matthew Kroenig
    Abstract:

    This chapter challenges the notion that US nuclear posture has a significant bearing on the proliferation behavior of other states. Many believe that a robust US nuclear arsenal is an important determinant of proliferation decisions in other states and that the United States can dissuade proliferation elsewhere by reducing the size of its own nuclear arsenal. This chapter argues that state decisions on Nonproliferation issues are driven by a range of other factors and, once these considerations are taken into account, there is little remaining variance to be explained by US nuclear posture. This argument is supported with a case study of the Iranian nuclear program and a statistical analysis using a data set on US nuclear arsenal size from 1945 to 2011. It finds no evidence of a relationship between the size of the US nuclear arsenal and a variety of nuclear Nonproliferation outcomes.

  • Force or Friendship? Explaining Great Power Nonproliferation Policy
    Security Studies, 2014
    Co-Authors: Matthew Kroenig
    Abstract:

    Why do great powers take such different approaches to the issue of nuclear proliferation? Why do states oppose nuclear proliferation more vigorously in some cases than in others? In short, what explains great power Nonproliferation policy? To answer these questions, this article tests two competing theories of Nonproliferation policy. The first, political relationship theory, suggests that states oppose nuclear proliferation to their enemies but are less concerned when friends acquire nuclear weapons. The second, power-projection theory, argues that states oppose the spread of nuclear weapons to states over which they have the ability to project military power because nuclear proliferation in those situations would constrain their military freedom of action. In contrast, states will be less likely to resist, and more likely to promote, nuclear proliferation to states against which they cannot use force. To test these hypotheses, this article uses evidence from great power Nonproliferation policy from 1945...

  • U.S. Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation: Is there a Link?
    2013
    Co-Authors: Matthew Kroenig
    Abstract:

    Is there a relationship between U.S. nuclear posture and Nonproliferation? Using a new dataset on U.S. nuclear arsenal size from 1945 to 2010, this article examines the relationship between the size of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and a variety of nuclear Nonproliferation outcomes. I find that there is no evidence of a relationship between the size of the U.S. arsenal and: the exploration, pursuit, or acquisition of nuclear weapons by other states; the provision of sensitive nuclear assistance to nonnuclear weapon states; and voting on Nonproliferation issues in the United Nations Security Council. These findings are robust to alternate conceptualizations and measurements of U.S. nuclear weapons and in various subsamples of data. This article contains important implications for international relations theory and U.S. Nonproliferation policy.

Nicholas L. Miller - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Stopping the Bomb - The Sources of US Nonproliferation Policy, 1969–1980
    Stopping the Bomb, 2018
    Co-Authors: Nicholas L. Miller
    Abstract:

    This chapter explores the changes in US Nonproliferation policy from 1969 to 1980. After the Nixon administration initially downgraded the priority given to Nonproliferation, India’s first nuclear test in 1974 led the Nixon and then Ford and Carter administrations to moved toward a stronger Nonproliferation policy, which included the founding of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the adoption of sanctions policies advocated by the US Congress. Like the Chinese test a decade prior, the Indian test led to stronger US Nonproliferation policies by unleashing expectations of nuclear domino effects, triggering greater attention to Nonproliferation, and providing a political opening for Nonproliferation advocates in Congress and the executive branch.

  • Stopping the Bomb - The Sources of US Nonproliferation Policy, 1945–1968
    Stopping the Bomb, 2018
    Co-Authors: Nicholas L. Miller
    Abstract:

    This chapter traces the historical evolution of US Nonproliferation policy from 1945 to 1968. It demonstrates that US policy prior to 1964 is best characterized as selective, as both the Eisenhower and Kennedy administrations were permissive toward proliferation by certain allies, including through the Multilateral Force in NATO. After China conducted its first nuclear test in 1964, the Johnson administration adopted a more universal Nonproliferation policy, abandoning the Multilateral Force and finalizing the Nonproliferation Treaty. These changes were driven by increased expectations of nuclear domino effects, more government focus on Nonproliferation, and advocacy by Nonproliferation advocates in Congress and the bureaucracy.

  • Stopping the Bomb - Theorizing the Sources and Effectiveness of US Nonproliferation Policy
    Stopping the Bomb, 2018
    Co-Authors: Nicholas L. Miller
    Abstract:

    This chapter reviews existing theories of nuclear proliferation and Nonproliferation policy and proposes two theories to explain how US Nonproliferation policy has evolved over time and how effective it has been in limiting the spread of nuclear weapons. It argues that tests by new nuclear states can spur stronger Nonproliferation policies by increasing expectations of nuclear domino effects, causing greater government attention to Nonproliferation, and providing a political opening for Nonproliferation advocates. In terms of the effectiveness of US Nonproliferation policy, it emphasizes the importance of a credible threat of sanctions, which can deter states from seeking or acquiring nuclear weapons if they are highly dependent on the United States. For states with low dependence on the United States, multilateral sanctions are crucial to ending ongoing nuclear weapons programs.

  • Nonproliferation in Action
    Stopping the Bomb, 2018
    Co-Authors: Nicholas L. Miller
    Abstract:

    This chapter analyzes US policy toward all allied and unaligned countries that have pursued nuclear weapons since 1964, when the United States began moving toward an across-the-board Nonproliferation policy. It demonstrates that even amongst friendly countries, the United States has consistently opposed the acquisition of nuclear weapons. The desire to prevent nuclear domino effects was an important motivation for these efforts, and helps explain why the United States sought to prevent nuclear tests even after it failed to prevent Israel, South Africa, India, and Pakistan from acquiring nuclear weapons. While there are several cases where the United States was selective in how it enforced Nonproliferation, in none of these cases did the United States support the spread of nuclear weapons.

Suzette R Grillot - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.