The Experts below are selected from a list of 321 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Guillaume Rochefort-maranda - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Inflated effect sizes and underpowered tests: how the severity measure of evidence is affected by the winner’s curse
Philosophical Studies, 2020Co-Authors: Guillaume Rochefort-marandaAbstract:My aim in this paper is to show how the problem of inflated effect sizes (the Winner’s Curse) corrupts the severity measure of evidence. This has never been done. In fact, the Winner’s Curse is barely mentioned in the philosophical literature. Since the severity score is the predominant measure of evidence for frequentist tests in the philosophical literature, it is important to underscore its flaws. It is also crucial to bring the philosophical literature up to speed with the limits of classical testing. The Winner’s Curse is one of them. The problem is that when a significant result is obtained by using an underpowered test, the severity score becomes particularly high for large discrepancies from the Null-Hypothesis. This means that such discrepancies are very well supported by the evidence according to that measure. However, it is now well documented that significant tests with low power display inflated effect sizes. They systematically show departures from the Null Hypothesis H0 that are much greater than they really are. From an epistemological point of view this means that a significant result produced by an underpowered test does not provide evidence for large discrepancies from H0. Therefore, the severity score is an inadequate measure of evidence. Given that we are now aware of the phenomenon of inflated effect sizes, it would be irresponsible to rely on the severity score to measure the strength of the evidence against the Null. Instead, one must take appropriate measures to try and avoid using underpowered tests by setting a threshold for the sample size or by replicating the results of the experiment.
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Inflated Effect Sizes, Underpowered Tests and the Severity Measure of Evidence
2017Co-Authors: Guillaume Rochefort-marandaAbstract:The severity score is particularly high for hypotheses that are substantially different from the Null-Hypothesis when a significant result is obtained by using an underpowered test. This means that such hypotheses are very well supported by the evidence according to that measure. However, it is now well documented that significant tests with low power display inflated effect sizes. They systematically show departures from the Null Hypothesis H0 that are much greater than they really are. This is problematic in research contexts where the differences between H0 and H1 is particularly small and where the sample size is also small. In this paper I argue that the severity score is an inadequate measure of evidence and that it should be rejected. The reason is that it is sensitive to the inflated effect sizes provided by underpowered significant tests: inflated effect sizes also inflate severity scores.
Neil D. Selby - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of MS: mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2014Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. SelbyAbstract:The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted mb) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with mb greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted MS) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger MS magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using MS and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
2011Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. Selby, Awe BlacknestAbstract:Abstract : The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics.
Dale N. Anderson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of MS: mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2014Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. SelbyAbstract:The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted mb) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with mb greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted MS) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger MS magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using MS and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
2011Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. Selby, Awe BlacknestAbstract:Abstract : The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics.
Jessie L. Bonner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of MS: mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2014Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. SelbyAbstract:The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted mb) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with mb greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted MS) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger MS magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using MS and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
2011Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. Selby, Awe BlacknestAbstract:Abstract : The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics.
Steven R. Taylor - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of MS: mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2014Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. SelbyAbstract:The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted mb) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with mb greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted MS) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger MS magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using MS and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: explosion characteristics.
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Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
2011Co-Authors: Dale N. Anderson, Howard J. Patton, Steven R. Taylor, Jessie L. Bonner, Neil D. Selby, Awe BlacknestAbstract:Abstract : The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a Hypothesis test (screening analysis) using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this Hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the Null Hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics.
