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Anil Gupta - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a Physician Demand and supply forecast model for nova scotia
    Cahiers de sociologie et de démographie médicales, 2005
    Co-Authors: Kisalaya Basu, Anil Gupta
    Abstract:

    Rationale There is well-founded concern about the current and future availability of Health Human Resources (HHR). Demographic trends are magnifying this concern -- an ageing population will require more medical interventions at a time when the HHR workforce itself is ageing. The lengthy and costly training period for most health care workers, especially Physicians, poses a real challenge that requires planning these activities well in advance. Hence, there is definite need for a good HHR forecasting model. Objectives To present a Physician forecasting model that projects the Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Demand for and supply of Physicians in Nova Scotia to the year 2020 for three specialties: general practitioners, medical, and surgical. The model enables gap analysis and assessment of alternative policy options designed to close the gaps. Methodology The methodology for estimating Demand fo Physician services involves three steps: (i) Establishing the FT for each Physician. To this end we calculate the income of each Physician using Physician Billings Data and then identify the 40th and 60th percentile income levels for each of the 40 specialties. The income levels are then used to calculate the FTE using a formula developed at Health Canada; (ii) Calculating the FTE for each service by distributing the FTE of each Physician at the service level (i.e., by patient age, sex, most responsible diagnosis, and hospital status group); and (iii) Using Statistics Canada's population projections to project future Demand for three broad medical disciplines: general practitioners, medical specialist, and surgical specialists. The supply side of the model employs a stock/flow approach and exploits time-series and other data for variables, such as emigration, international medical graduates (IMGs), medical school entrants, retirements, mortality, and so on, which in turn allow us to access a host of policy parameters. Results Under the status quo assumption, Demand for Physician services will outstrip the growth in supply for all three specialties. Conclusions The model can simulate supply-side policy changes (e.g. more IMGs, delayed retirements) and can also reflect changes in Demand (e.g. a cure for leukemia; different work intensities for Physicians). The model is highly parameterized so that it can accommodate shocks that may influence the future requirements for Physicians. Once a future requirement is determined, the supply model can identify the policy levers (new entrants, immigration, emigration, retirement) necessary to close the gap between Demand and supply. The model is a user-friendly tool made for policy makers to formulate appropriate Physician workforce planning.

Kisalaya Basu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a Physician Demand and supply forecast model for nova scotia
    Cahiers de sociologie et de démographie médicales, 2005
    Co-Authors: Kisalaya Basu, Anil Gupta
    Abstract:

    Rationale There is well-founded concern about the current and future availability of Health Human Resources (HHR). Demographic trends are magnifying this concern -- an ageing population will require more medical interventions at a time when the HHR workforce itself is ageing. The lengthy and costly training period for most health care workers, especially Physicians, poses a real challenge that requires planning these activities well in advance. Hence, there is definite need for a good HHR forecasting model. Objectives To present a Physician forecasting model that projects the Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Demand for and supply of Physicians in Nova Scotia to the year 2020 for three specialties: general practitioners, medical, and surgical. The model enables gap analysis and assessment of alternative policy options designed to close the gaps. Methodology The methodology for estimating Demand fo Physician services involves three steps: (i) Establishing the FT for each Physician. To this end we calculate the income of each Physician using Physician Billings Data and then identify the 40th and 60th percentile income levels for each of the 40 specialties. The income levels are then used to calculate the FTE using a formula developed at Health Canada; (ii) Calculating the FTE for each service by distributing the FTE of each Physician at the service level (i.e., by patient age, sex, most responsible diagnosis, and hospital status group); and (iii) Using Statistics Canada's population projections to project future Demand for three broad medical disciplines: general practitioners, medical specialist, and surgical specialists. The supply side of the model employs a stock/flow approach and exploits time-series and other data for variables, such as emigration, international medical graduates (IMGs), medical school entrants, retirements, mortality, and so on, which in turn allow us to access a host of policy parameters. Results Under the status quo assumption, Demand for Physician services will outstrip the growth in supply for all three specialties. Conclusions The model can simulate supply-side policy changes (e.g. more IMGs, delayed retirements) and can also reflect changes in Demand (e.g. a cure for leukemia; different work intensities for Physicians). The model is highly parameterized so that it can accommodate shocks that may influence the future requirements for Physicians. Once a future requirement is determined, the supply model can identify the policy levers (new entrants, immigration, emigration, retirement) necessary to close the gap between Demand and supply. The model is a user-friendly tool made for policy makers to formulate appropriate Physician workforce planning.

Eric P. Wilkinson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • The Evolution of the Physician’s Role
    2015
    Co-Authors: Eric P. Wilkinson
    Abstract:

    employed in the United States. Some workforce experts believe there is a Physician oversupply, arguing that allopathic, osteopathic, and international medical graduates are all competing for limited practice opportunities in the managed care setting.1 Other experts have advo-cated the expansion of US medical school positions, claiming that Physician Demand has not lessened despite a perceived oversupply.2 Yet others continue to hold that a “maldistribution ” of Physicians into urban and suburban areas, rather than rural and inner-city regions, is the root of the problem.3 Recent data suggest that this practice dis-parity, the target of primary care initiatives in many medical schools, has not closed, and may even have widened.4 Whatever the outcome of the Physician workforce debate, physi-cians will face a changing landscape of clinical practice roles as well as increased availability of alternate career options. Some medical gradu-ates are choosing to reject traditional clinical roles altogether. In thi