Probabilistic Method

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Jose A Domingueznavarro - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a Probabilistic Method for energy storage sizing based on wind power forecast uncertainty
    IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2011
    Co-Authors: Hans Bludszuweit, Jose A Domingueznavarro
    Abstract:

    A novel Method is proposed for designing an energy storage system (ESS) which is dedicated to the reduction of the uncertainty of short-term wind power forecasts up to 48 h. The investigation focuses on the statistical behavior of the forecast error and the state of charge (SOC) of the ESS. This approach gives an insight into the influence of the forecast conditions (horizon, quality) on the distribution of SOC. With this knowledge, an optimized sizing of the ESS can be done with a well-defined uncertainty limit. For this study, one-year time series of power output measurements and forecasts were available for two wind farms. As a reference, different forecast quality degrees are simulated based on a persistence approach. With the forecast data, empirical probability density functions (pdfs) are generated which are the basis of the proposed Method. This approach can lead to a considerable reduction of the ESS and provides important information about the unserved energy. This unserved energy represents the remaining forecast uncertainty. As a consequence, the proposed Probabilistic Method permits the sizing of energy storage systems as a function of the desired remaining forecast uncertainty, reducing simultaneously power and energy capacity.

Nir Friedman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Module networks: Identifying regulatory modules and their condition-specific regulators from gene expression data
    Nature Genetics, 2003
    Co-Authors: Eran Segal, Michael Shapira, David Botstein, Daphne Koller, Aviv Regev, Nir Friedman
    Abstract:

    Much of a cell's activity is organized as a network of interacting modules: sets of genes coregulated to respond to different conditions. We present a Probabilistic Method for identifying regulatory modules from gene expression data. Our procedure identifies modules of coregulated genes, their regulators and the conditions under which regulation occurs, generating testable hypotheses in the form 'regulator X regulates module Y under conditions W'. We applied the Method to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae expression data set, showing its ability to identify functionally coherent modules and their correct regulators. We present microarray experiments supporting three novel predictions, suggesting regulatory roles for previously uncharacterized proteins.

Xiaogang Miao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • statistical distribution for wind power forecast error and its application to determine optimal size of energy storage system
    International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2014
    Co-Authors: Buhan Zhang, Yi Chen, Xiaogang Miao
    Abstract:

    Abstract Accurate wind power forecast is an important tool for wind farm to participate in day-ahead or hours-ahead energy markets. However, forecast errors with any Methodology are so large that they cannot be neglected. The forecast error needs to be analyzed individually for single wind farm to estimate the impact of this error on trading wind energy in electricity market. Although forecast error is always assumed as normal distribution, it can be demonstrated that it is not proper with a simple statistical analysis. In this paper, a mixed distribution is proposed based on laplace and normal distribution to model forecast errors associated with persistence forecast for single wind farm over multiple timescales. Then the proposed distribution is used to estimate the penalties for prediction errors in the electricity market. Energy storage system (ESS) can smooth the wind power output and make wind power more “dispatchable”. A Probabilistic Method is proposed to determine optimal size of ESS for wind farm in electricity markets. The results indicate that the proposed distribution and Probabilistic Method is efficient to find optimal size of ESS.

Katsuhiko Naito - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Joseph Corcoran - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.