Probabilistic Modelling

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Salvina Gagliano - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system. Within the framework of a case study, the potential of the developed Probabilistic approach is presented, and the effect of the solar tracking systems on the annual energy gain is discussed. Specifically, the impact of a tracking system on the probability density function (PDF) of the power produced by a photovoltaic system (PVS) is evaluated through the first four moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of a PDF. Finally, to estimate the impact of a tracking system on HSWPS energy performance, a reliability analysis is performed using the energy index of reliability (EIR), which is directly related to energy expected not supplied (EENS), given different annual load scenarios.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar/wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system.

  • hybrid solar wind power system Probabilistic Modelling for long term performance assessment
    Solar Energy, 2006
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano, S Raiti
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic approach based on the convolution technique to assess the long-term performance of a hybrid solar–wind power system (HSWPS) for both stand-alone and grid-linked applications. To estimate energy performance of HSWPS the reliability analysis is performed by the use of the energy index of reliability (EIR) directly related to energy expected not supplied (EENS). Analytical expressions are developed to obtain the power generated. The hybrid system and the load models employed enable the study period to range from one year to one particular hour-of-day, thus allowing the inclusion of the time-value of energy as appropriate in economic assessments. A numerical example application is included to illustrate the validity of the developed Probabilistic model: the results are compared to those resulting from time domain simulations.

Giuseppe Marco Tina - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system. Within the framework of a case study, the potential of the developed Probabilistic approach is presented, and the effect of the solar tracking systems on the annual energy gain is discussed. Specifically, the impact of a tracking system on the probability density function (PDF) of the power produced by a photovoltaic system (PVS) is evaluated through the first four moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) of a PDF. Finally, to estimate the impact of a tracking system on HSWPS energy performance, a reliability analysis is performed using the energy index of reliability (EIR), which is directly related to energy expected not supplied (EENS), given different annual load scenarios.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of hybrid solar/wind power system with solar tracking system
    Renewable Energy, 2011
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic model applied to a hybrid solar-wind power system (HSWPS), which is equipped with either a one-axis or a two-axis solar tracking system.

  • hybrid solar wind power system Probabilistic Modelling for long term performance assessment
    Solar Energy, 2006
    Co-Authors: Giuseppe Marco Tina, Salvina Gagliano, S Raiti
    Abstract:

    This paper presents a Probabilistic approach based on the convolution technique to assess the long-term performance of a hybrid solar–wind power system (HSWPS) for both stand-alone and grid-linked applications. To estimate energy performance of HSWPS the reliability analysis is performed by the use of the energy index of reliability (EIR) directly related to energy expected not supplied (EENS). Analytical expressions are developed to obtain the power generated. The hybrid system and the load models employed enable the study period to range from one year to one particular hour-of-day, thus allowing the inclusion of the time-value of energy as appropriate in economic assessments. A numerical example application is included to illustrate the validity of the developed Probabilistic model: the results are compared to those resulting from time domain simulations.

Christopher M Bishop - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of replica divergence
    Proceedings Eighth Workshop on Hot Topics in Operating Systems, 2001
    Co-Authors: Antony Rowstron, Neil D. Lawrence, Christopher M Bishop
    Abstract:

    It is common in distributed systems to replicate data. In many cases this data evolves in a consistent fashion, and this evolution can be modelled. A Probabilistic model of the evolution allows us to estimate the divergence of the replicas and can be used by the application to alter its behaviour, for example to control synchronisation times, to determine the propagation of writes, and to convey to the user information about how much the data may have evolved. In this paper, we describe how the evolution of the data may be modelled and outline how the Probabilistic model may be utilised in various applications, concentrating on a news database example.

  • HotOS - Probabilistic Modelling of replica divergence
    Proceedings Eighth Workshop on Hot Topics in Operating Systems, 1
    Co-Authors: Antony Rowstron, Neil D. Lawrence, Christopher M Bishop
    Abstract:

    It is common in distributed systems to replicate data. In many cases this data evolves in a consistent fashion, and this evolution can be modelled. A Probabilistic model of the evolution allows us to estimate the divergence of the replicas and can be used by the application to alter its behaviour, for example to control synchronisation times, to determine the propagation of writes, and to convey to the user information about how much the data may have evolved. In this paper, we describe how the evolution of the data may be modelled and outline how the Probabilistic model may be utilised in various applications, concentrating on a news database example.

Chen Yong-le - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Probabilistic Modelling of Soil Moisture Dynamics in a Revegetated Desert Area
    Journal of Desert Research, 2013
    Co-Authors: Chen Yong-le
    Abstract:

    Soil moisture was the key link between land hydrological and ecological processes,which had play an important role in the terrestrial water cycling.With frequent and extreme weather events in recent years,the stochastic simulation of soil moisture has gradually become the research focus in ecohydrology.Based on the continuous monitoring soil moisture data from 2008 to 2011,the historical precipitation data from 1991 to 2011,and combined with the Rodriguez-Iturbe soil moisture dynamic stochastic model,we studied the soil moisture dynamics and its probability density function in a revegetated desert area.Results showed that,the annual soil moisture dynamics changed with the rainfall distribution,and the probability distribution showed a single peak-shaped in the plant rhizosphere layer(0-60 cm),the peak width in the topsoil mositure 20 cm was larger than the others,and the distribution also appeared a certain degree of jump.The 40 cm and 60 cm of soil moisture probability distribution peak width was smaller,which was in accordance with the simulation results of Rodriguez-Iturbe model.Those results confirmed that stochastic model also had a good applicability in arid desert areas and could be well used in describing the statistical characteristics of soil moisture.

Mauro Soldati - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • assessment of shallow landslide risk mitigation measures based on land use planning through Probabilistic Modelling
    Landslides, 2015
    Co-Authors: Jorge Pedro Galve, Andrea Cevasco, Pierluigi Brandolini, Mauro Soldati
    Abstract:

    On October 25, 2011, an extreme rainfall event affected a wide area along the coasts of Cinque Terre (eastern Liguria, northern Italy). Particularly, in the Vernazza catchment, the event triggered hundreds of shallow landslides and a debris flood that caused three casualties. Investigation of the slope stability after the event was carried out aiming at defining the most effective mitigation measures which may be adopted in future land use planning. To this objective, a susceptibility model was produced and a series of scenarios were simulated using Probabilistic methods. The susceptibility model has provided information about landslide conditioning factors on which to act for reducing landslide occurrence and therefore the associated risk. The simulations have taken into consideration the following alternative types of mitigation measures: (1) restoration of abandoned terraces, (2) reforestation of abandoned terraces, (3) use of local structural measures over stretches of potentially unstable hillsides and (4) avoidance of any intervention. The advantages and the disadvantages of the proposed mitigation measures for shallow landslide risk are discussed considering the results of the simulations and taking into account their complex interaction with environmental, historical, cultural and socio-economic aspects. The results show that the most effective mitigation strategy for reducing landslide risk at short term consists of applying structural measures over potentially unstable slopes. However, a long-term programme promoting the development of agricultural or forestry practices on terraced slopes is necessary. In fact, the simulations indicate that if no measures are applied to avoid the degradation of the terraced areas, landslide areal frequency would inevitably increase.