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Lev Virine - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Integrated Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis of Project Portfolios
2013 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, 2013Co-Authors: Lev VirineAbstract:Project portfolio Risk management and Risk Analysis form one of the critical components of enterprise Risk management. Organizations measure and analyze Risks associated with projects, project portfolios, and programs. The important step of the process is Quantitative Risk Analysis of project schedules using event chain methodology (ECM). ECM is a stochastic modeling technique for schedule Risk Analysis. All Risks, including schedule and nonschedule-related Risks, are assigned to a particular project and within this project to the particular activity or resource. Further, ECM allows one to model the relationship between project Risks by defining Risks that cause or trigger other Risks. All Risks and relationships between them will be presented on the project or portfolio Gantt charts using event chain diagrams. After Risks are assigned to project and portfolio schedules, Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule is performed. ECM simplifies complex Risk Analysis process.
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integrated qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis of project portfolios
2013Co-Authors: Lev VirineAbstract:Project portfolio Risk management and Risk Analysis form one of the critical components of enterprise Risk management. Organizations measure and analyze Risks associated with projects, project portfolios, and programs. Such Risks can be related to project schedules and affect, for example, project durations, completion dates, costs, resources, and success rates. The project Risks also can be unrelated to particular project schedules and affecting market, capital, insurance, joint ventures, and other parameters. The process of project portfolio Risk management begins with Risk identification. Risks are included on the corporate Risk register and presented on the Risk matrix. At this step Risk probabilities and impacts are defined qualitatively. The second step of the process is Quantitative Risk Analysis of project schedules using event chain methodology (ECM). ECM is a stochastic modeling technique for schedule Risk Analysis. All Risks, including schedule and nonschedule-related Risks, are assigned to a particular project and within this project to the particular activity or resource. Further, ECM allows one to model the relationship between project Risks by defining Risks that cause or trigger other Risks. All Risks and relationships between them will be presented on the project or portfolio Gantt charts using event chain diagrams. After Risks are assigned to project and portfolio schedules, Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule is performed based on a standard scheduling algorithm. Statistical distributions of project cost, duration, finish time, resource allocation, and other parameters help to determine the chance that the project can be completed on time and on budget. Risk impact is calculated based on correlation between the incremental increase of a task’s cost or duration and project cost, duration, and other parameters. Risks within a Risk register are ranked based on calculated impact and probabilities. The methodology simplifies complex Risk Analysis process, which in most cases is performed by project schedulers. *Lev Virine, Ph.D., P.Eng. is President of Intaver Institute Inc., 303, 6707, Elbow Drive S.W., Calgary, Alberta, Canada, T2V0E5, lvirine@intaver.com. 1. Enterprise Risk Management in Project-Based Organizations Many organizations, especially those in the construction, aerospace, and pharmaceutical industries, focus their resources primary on projects rather than on operation. A project is a “temporary endeavour undertaken to create a unique, product, service, or result” (Project Management Institute 2013). Projects are time related and usually include multiple activities and resources. Many projects have a project schedule with a number of interlinked activities and resources attached to them. The projects are managed by tracking actual project performance versus original project plans. Most organizations have a portfolio of projects that can be related to each other, for example, by sharing the same resources. Project management includes project scope, time, quality, procurement, and other processes. One of the most important project management processes is Risk management. Project Risk management includes steps of Risk management planning, Risk identification, qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis, Risk response planning, Risk monitoring, and control. The main difference between enterprise Risk management (ERM) for operation-based organization and portfolio Risk management is that in portfolio Risk management many Risks can be assigned to the activities of project schedules. For example, some Risks can affect an activity’s duration, and the same or another Risk can affect an activity’s cost, resource allocation, project success rate, and other project parameters. By assigning Risk to a project activity and recalculating the project schedule it is possible to determine how Risk would affect the schedule and portfolio. The Risk register in a project portfolio includes schedulerelated Risks and nonschedule Risks. Market, capital, insurance, and joint ventures belong to the category of nonschedule Risks. They may be assigned to activities of the project schedule, but they do not affect project schedule directly. Risks related to an activity’s duration and cost affect the project schedule. 2. Quantitative versus Quantitative Analysis of a Project Portfolio The Risk register of a project portfolio is a set of Risks of opportunities with their properties. The Risk properties include the following: Risk attributes, such as Risk description, objectives, owner, and start and end date
Ernesto Salzano - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless , engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial acciden ts may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects (‘domino effects’). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point ( x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.
Journal of hazardous materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.
Giovanni Fabbrocino - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless , engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial acciden ts may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects (‘domino effects’). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point ( x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.
Journal of hazardous materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.
Francesca Orlando - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless , engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial acciden ts may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects (‘domino effects’). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point ( x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.
Journal of hazardous materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.
Iunio Iervolino - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas
Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless , engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial acciden ts may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects (‘domino effects’). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point ( x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Quantitative Risk Analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.
Journal of hazardous materials, 2005Co-Authors: Giovanni Fabbrocino, Iunio Iervolino, Francesca Orlando, Ernesto SalzanoAbstract:Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate Quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic Risk into Quantitative probabilistic seismic Risk Analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard Analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence Analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local Risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.
