Quantitative Risk Assessment

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Youngdo Jo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a method of Quantitative Risk Assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005
    Co-Authors: Youngdo Jo
    Abstract:

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, Risk management based on a Quantitative Assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the Quantitative Risk Assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal Risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual Risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of Quantitative Risk Assessment may be useful for Risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline.

Jong Ahn Bum - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • A method of Quantitative Risk Assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005
    Co-Authors: Young D. Jo, Jong Ahn Bum
    Abstract:

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, Risk management based on a Quantitative Assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the Quantitative Risk Assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal Risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual Risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of Quantitative Risk Assessment may be useful for Risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Young D. Jo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • A method of Quantitative Risk Assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas
    Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005
    Co-Authors: Young D. Jo, Jong Ahn Bum
    Abstract:

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, Risk management based on a Quantitative Assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the Quantitative Risk Assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal Risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual Risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of Quantitative Risk Assessment may be useful for Risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Xiaobo Qu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • an overview of maritime waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment models
    Risk Analysis, 2012
    Co-Authors: Suyi Li, Qiang Meng, Xiaobo Qu
    Abstract:

    The safe navigation of ships, especially in narrow shipping waterways, is of the utmost concern to researchers as well as maritime authorities. Many researchers and practitioners have conducted studies on Risk Assessment for maritime transportation and have proposed Risk reduction/control measures accordingly. This article provides a detailed review and Assessment of various Quantitative Risk Assessment models for maritime waterways. Eighty-seven academic papers and/or project reports are summarized and discussed. The review then proceeds to analyze the frequency and consequence estimation models separately. It should be pointed out that we further summarize the advantages and disadvantages of frequency estimation models and provide recommendations for their application. From the overview, we find that the quantification of the impact of human error is of great importance and should be considered in future studies. Possible solutions are also proposed in the discussions.

  • Uncertainty Propagation in Quantitative Risk Assessment Modeling for Fire in Road Tunnels
    IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part C (Applications and Reviews), 2012
    Co-Authors: Qiang Meng, Xiaobo Qu
    Abstract:

    Road tunnels are critical transportation infrastructures that provide underground passageways for motorists and commuters. Fire in road tunnels in combination with tunnel safety provisions failure may lead to catastrophic consequences, and thus, necessitates a robust and reliable approach to assess tunnel Risks. This article proposes a Quantitative Risk Assessment model for fire in road tunnel by taking into consideration two types of uncertainties. A Monte Carlo-based estimation method is developed to propagate parameter uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Assessment model consisting of event tree analysis as well as consequence estimation models. The percentile-based individual Risks and α-cut-based societal Risks are put up and the Risk indices are proven to be very useful for tunnel operators with distinct Risk attitudes to assess the safety level of a road tunnel. Finally, the proposed research methodology is applied to Singapore KPE road tunnels.

Qiang Meng - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • an overview of maritime waterway Quantitative Risk Assessment models
    Risk Analysis, 2012
    Co-Authors: Suyi Li, Qiang Meng, Xiaobo Qu
    Abstract:

    The safe navigation of ships, especially in narrow shipping waterways, is of the utmost concern to researchers as well as maritime authorities. Many researchers and practitioners have conducted studies on Risk Assessment for maritime transportation and have proposed Risk reduction/control measures accordingly. This article provides a detailed review and Assessment of various Quantitative Risk Assessment models for maritime waterways. Eighty-seven academic papers and/or project reports are summarized and discussed. The review then proceeds to analyze the frequency and consequence estimation models separately. It should be pointed out that we further summarize the advantages and disadvantages of frequency estimation models and provide recommendations for their application. From the overview, we find that the quantification of the impact of human error is of great importance and should be considered in future studies. Possible solutions are also proposed in the discussions.

  • Uncertainty Propagation in Quantitative Risk Assessment Modeling for Fire in Road Tunnels
    IEEE Transactions on Systems Man and Cybernetics Part C (Applications and Reviews), 2012
    Co-Authors: Qiang Meng, Xiaobo Qu
    Abstract:

    Road tunnels are critical transportation infrastructures that provide underground passageways for motorists and commuters. Fire in road tunnels in combination with tunnel safety provisions failure may lead to catastrophic consequences, and thus, necessitates a robust and reliable approach to assess tunnel Risks. This article proposes a Quantitative Risk Assessment model for fire in road tunnel by taking into consideration two types of uncertainties. A Monte Carlo-based estimation method is developed to propagate parameter uncertainty in Quantitative Risk Assessment model consisting of event tree analysis as well as consequence estimation models. The percentile-based individual Risks and α-cut-based societal Risks are put up and the Risk indices are proven to be very useful for tunnel operators with distinct Risk attitudes to assess the safety level of a road tunnel. Finally, the proposed research methodology is applied to Singapore KPE road tunnels.