The Experts below are selected from a list of 10833 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Ronald A. Ratti - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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OPEC and non-OPEC Oil production and the global economy
Energy Economics, 2015Co-Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. VespignaniAbstract:Hamilton identifies 1973 to 1996 as “the age of OPEC” and 1997 to the present as “a new industrial age.” During 1974–1996 growth in non-OPEC Oil production Granger causes growth in OPEC Oil production. OPEC Oil production decreases significantly with positive shocks to non-OPEC Oil production in the earlier period, but does not do so in the “new industrial age”. In the “new industrial age” OPEC Oil production rises significantly with an increase in Oil Prices, unlike during “the age of OPEC” period. OPEC Oil production responds significantly to positive innovations in global GDP throughout. Over 1997:Q1–2012:Q4 the negative effect on Real Oil Price of positive shocks to non-OPEC Oil production is larger in absolute value than that of positive shocks to OPEC Oil production. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to non-OPEC Oil production and to Real Oil Price on OPEC Oil production are large. The cumulative effects of structural shocks to OPEC production and Real Oil Price on non-OPEC production are small. Results are robust to changes in model specification. An econometric technique to predict growth in OPEC Oil production provides support for the results from the SVAR analysis. Results are consistent with important changes in the global Oil market.
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Crude Oil Prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries
Energy Economics, 2013Co-Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. VespignaniAbstract:Unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity lead to significant and persistent increases in Real Oil Prices, global Oil production and global Real aggregate demand. Unanticipated shocks to the liquidity of developed countries over 1997:01-2011:12 do not. The relative contribution to Real Oil Price of liquidity in BRIC countries to liquidity in developed countries is much greater since 2005 than before 2005. China and India drive the results for the effect of BRIC countries’ liquidity on Real Oil Price and global Oil production. China and India and Brazil and Russia reinforce one another on the effect of liquidity on global Real aggregate demand. Due to the difference between countries as commodity importers/exporters, the liquidity of Brazil and Russia increases significantly with a rise in Real Oil Price and that of China and India decreases significantly with a rise in Real Oil Price. It is shown that the strong rebound in Oil Price during 2009 is mostly due to strong effects of shocks to liquidity in the BRIC countries. The analysis helps in assessing the importance of the BRIC economies in the upsurge of the Real Price of crude Oil.
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Liquidity and crude Oil Prices: China's influence over 1996–2011
Economic Modelling, 2013Co-Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. VespignaniAbstract:Movement in China's money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last fifteen years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) Real M2 and to China's Real M2 are both large over 1996:1–2011:12. The cumulative impact of Real G3 M2 shocks on Real Oil Prices is small and statistically insignificant. In contrast, the cumulative impact of China's Real M2 on the Real Price of crude Oil is large and statistically significant. Following a sharp fall in Real Oil Price in the last half of 2008, the cumulative impact of China's Real M2 on the Real Price of crude Oil is particularly substantial in the recovery of Oil Price during 2009 from a low of $41.68 for January 2009. The analysis sheds light on the causes of movement in Oil Prices over the last fifteen years and in assessing the relative importance of China in the upsurge of the Real Price of crude Oil.
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Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011
2012Co-Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. VespignaniAbstract:Industrial production and liquidity in China and liquidity in other major countries are introduced into the Kilian (2009) model identifying the supply and demand side factors driving Real Oil Price changes. It is recognized that China’s Real liquidity may proxy for Real income increase in China. Unanticipated increases in China’s liquidity cause large significant increases in Real Oil Prices that persist. Positive innovations to G3 liquidity raise Real Oil Price by much smaller amounts before eroding. Following a sharp fall late in 2008 Real Oil Price rose strongly during 2009-2010. This rise is associated with shocks from China’s liquidity during 2009 and recovered global demand for industrial commodities during 2010. Global demand for industrial commodities reacts positively to China’s industrial production and liquidity.
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Liquidity and Crude Oil Prices: China’s Influence Over 1996-2011
2012Co-Authors: Ronald A. Ratti, Joaquin L. VespignaniAbstract:Movement in China’s money supply is shown to drive the movement in world money supply over the last twenty years. Structural shocks to G3 (U.S., Eurozone and Japan) Real M2 and to China’s Real M2 are both large over 1996:1-2011:12. The cumulative impact of Real G3 M2 shocks on Real Oil Prices is small and statistically insignificant. In contrast, the cumulative impact of China’s Real M2 on the Real Price of crude Oil is large and statistically significant. Following a sharp fall in Real Oil Price in the last half of 2008, the cumulative impact of China’s Real M2 on the Real Price of crude Oil is particularly substantial in the recovery of Oil Price during 2009 from a low of $41.68 for January 2009. The analysis sheds light on the causes of movement in Oil Prices over the last twenty five years and in assessing the relative importance of China in the upsurge of the Real Price of crude Oil.
Helu Xiao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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how do Oil Price shocks affect the output volatility of the u s energy mining industry the roles of structural Oil Price shocks
Energy Economics, 2020Co-Authors: Yong Jiang, Zhongbao Zhou, Helu XiaoAbstract:This paper focuses on how explicit structural shocks that characterize the endogenous character of international Oil Price change affect the output volatility of the U.S. crude Oil and natural gas mining industries. To this end, we employ a modified structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to decompose Real Oil-Price changes into four components: U.S. supply shocks, non-U.S. supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and Oil-specific demand shocks mainly driven by precautionary demand. The results indicate that output volatility of the U.S. crude Oil and natural gas mining industry has significantly negative responses to U.S. supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and Oil-specific demand shocks, while lacks significant response to non-U.S. supply shocks. Variance decomposition and historical decomposition confirm that U.S. supply shocks occupy most explaining variations in output volatility among the four structural Oil shocks. Moreover, the Oil-specific demand shocks explain more variation than that of aggregate demand shocks for the crude Oil mining industry, but the opposite is true for the natural gas mining industry.
Gert Peersman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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time varying effects of Oil supply shocks on the us economy
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2013Co-Authors: Christiane Baumeister, Gert PeersmanAbstract:We investigate how the dynamic effects of Oil supply shocks on the US economy have changed over time. We first document a remarkable structural change in the Oil market itself, i.e. a considerably steeper, hence, less elastic Oil demand curve since the mid-eighties. Accordingly, a typical Oil supply shock is currently characterized by a much smaller impact on world Oil production and a greater effect on the Real Price of crude Oil, but has a similar impact on US output and inflation as in the 1970s. Second, we find a smaller role for Oil supply shocks in accounting for Real Oil Price variability over time, implying that current Oil Price fluctuations are more demand driven. Finally, while unfavorable Oil supply disturbances explain little of the "Great Inflation", they seem to have contributed to the 1974/75, early 1980s and 1990s recessions but also dampened the economic boom at the end of the millennium.
Jung Wook Park - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Oil Price shocks and stock markets in the u s and 13 european countries
Energy Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Jung Wook Park, Ronald A. RattiAbstract:Oil Price shocks have a statistically significant impact on Real stock returns contemporaneously and/or within the following month in the U.S. and 13 European countries over 1986:1-2005:12. Norway as an Oil exporter shows a statistically significantly positive response of Real stock returns to an Oil Price increase. The median result from variance decomposition analysis is that Oil Price shocks account for a statistically significant 6% of the volatility in Real stock returns. For many European countries, but not for the U.S., increased volatility of Oil Prices significantly depresses Real stock returns. The contribution of Oil Price shocks to variability in Real stock returns in the U.S. and most other countries is greater than that of interest rate. An increase in Real Oil Price is associated with a significant increase in the short-term interest rate in the U.S. and eight out of 13 European countries within one or two months. Counter to findings for the U.S. and for Norway, there is little evidence of asymmetric effects on Real stock returns of positive and negative Oil Price shocks for Oil importing European countries.
Matthew Tanner - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Do Oil Prices respond to Real interest rates
Energy Economics, 2013Co-Authors: Vipin Arora, Matthew TannerAbstract:We show that the robustness of an inverse relationship between the Real interest rate and Real Oil Price depends crucially on how the Real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, we find that the Oil Price falls with an unexpected rise in either U.S. or international ex-ante Real interest rates. When the ex-post Real interest rate is used, the Oil Price only falls with rises to short-term rates (3months or less). Additionally, the response of the Oil Price to long-term ex-ante Real interest rates must include the period through the mid-2000s for the inverse relationship to appear. In contrast, the Oil Price consistently falls with unexpected rises in short-term Real interest rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the Oil Price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. and international Real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, Oil Prices have become more responsive to long-term Real interest rates over time.
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How important are Real interest rates for Oil Prices
2011Co-Authors: Vipin Arora, Matthew TannerAbstract:Using a recursive vector autoregression (VAR), this paper considers the relation between the U.S. Real interest rate and the Real Oil Price. Theoretically, as outlined in Hotelling (1931) and Working (1949), a lower Real interest rate results in reduced production and increased storage, implying a higher Oil Price. The results presented here show that the robustness of this relationship depends crucially on how the Real interest rate is calculated, and the time-frame of the sample. Consistent with earlier studies, the Oil Price falls with an innovation to the ex-ante U.S. Real interest rate. However, this is not true if the Real interest rate is calculated ex-post. In this case, the Oil Price only falls in response to an innovation in short-term U.S. Real interest rates (three months or less). Additionally, the response of the Oil Price to longer-term ex-ante U.S. Real interest rates must include the period through 2006 for this relationship to appear. The Oil Price consistently responds to innovations in short-term rates throughout the entire sample. We draw two conclusions from the results. The first is that the Oil Price is consistently responsive to short-term U.S. Real interest rates, underlying the importance of storage. Second, Oil Prices have become more responsive to longer-term U.S. Real interest rates. The reasons behind this change are unclear and require further study.
