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Paul Norman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the demographic drivers of future ethnic group populations for uk local areas 2001 2051
    The Geographical Journal, 2013
    Co-Authors: Philip Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman
    Abstract:

    Projections of the ethnic composition of the UK population presage radical change in the future at both national and local levels. The first question that users of such population projections ask is 'what is driving the results?' The answer can be found in the assumptions made for future mortality rates, future Fertility rates, future migration rates and flows, and the age-sex structure of the starting populations. But it is difficult to disentangle the component effects and demographic momentum. We adapt a methodology proposed and used by Bongaarts and Bulatao in 1999 (Population and Development Review 25 515-29) by extending to national, subnational and ethnic group projections, applying it to projections of the ethnic group populations in English local authorities. We assess the roles played by immigration assumptions (the subject of continuous public debate), Fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions and internal migration assumptions together with the role of the existing population age structure of each group in each area. Our findings are that positive immigration assumptions contribute to population growth in all local authorities, below Replacement Fertility lowers the population everywhere, declining mortality compensates for missing babies but substitutes elders and internal migration has very different effects depending on the local authority. Ethnic groups vary enormously in terms of the contribution of the current age structure. The demographic momentum of the White groups produces population declines while it is the most important demographic driver for some but not all of minority ethnic groups. The paper reports on the methods, assumptions and results associated with a systematic set of 'what if' projections. These enable us to determine the demographic drivers of future ethnic population change for England's local areas over the time horizon 2001-2051. © 2012 The Authors. The Geographical Journal

Jeffrey D Sachs - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • improving empirical estimation of demographic drivers Fertility child mortality malaria ecology
    Social Science Research Network, 2010
    Co-Authors: Gordon C Mccord, Dalton Conley, Jeffrey D Sachs
    Abstract:

    Much of Africa has yet to go through a demographic transition; this Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high Fertility, rapid population growth and chronic extreme poverty has been attributed to factors including the status of women, pro-natalist policies, and poverty itself. Large uncertainty exists among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors, mostly since econometric estimation is complicated by the endogeneity of Fertility to other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation of the effect of the child mortality variable on Fertility by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission. Results show that child mortality is a powerfully robust driver of Fertility behavior. Meeting the Millennium Development Goal of reducing 1990 child mortality rates by 66% in sub-Saharan Africa would translate into a reduction of total Fertility rates from around 6.3 in 1990 to 3.3, more than halfway towards achieving Replacement Fertility levels of 2.1.

Philip Rees - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the demographic drivers of future ethnic group populations for uk local areas 2001 2051
    The Geographical Journal, 2013
    Co-Authors: Philip Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman
    Abstract:

    Projections of the ethnic composition of the UK population presage radical change in the future at both national and local levels. The first question that users of such population projections ask is 'what is driving the results?' The answer can be found in the assumptions made for future mortality rates, future Fertility rates, future migration rates and flows, and the age-sex structure of the starting populations. But it is difficult to disentangle the component effects and demographic momentum. We adapt a methodology proposed and used by Bongaarts and Bulatao in 1999 (Population and Development Review 25 515-29) by extending to national, subnational and ethnic group projections, applying it to projections of the ethnic group populations in English local authorities. We assess the roles played by immigration assumptions (the subject of continuous public debate), Fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions and internal migration assumptions together with the role of the existing population age structure of each group in each area. Our findings are that positive immigration assumptions contribute to population growth in all local authorities, below Replacement Fertility lowers the population everywhere, declining mortality compensates for missing babies but substitutes elders and internal migration has very different effects depending on the local authority. Ethnic groups vary enormously in terms of the contribution of the current age structure. The demographic momentum of the White groups produces population declines while it is the most important demographic driver for some but not all of minority ethnic groups. The paper reports on the methods, assumptions and results associated with a systematic set of 'what if' projections. These enable us to determine the demographic drivers of future ethnic population change for England's local areas over the time horizon 2001-2051. © 2012 The Authors. The Geographical Journal

Hu Ying - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • PROVINCE-LEVEL VARIATION IN THE ACHIEVEMENT OF BELOW-Replacement Fertility IN CHINA
    Asian Population Studies, 2009
    Co-Authors: Jiajian Chen, Robert D. Retherford, Minja Kim Choe, Li Xiru, Hu Ying
    Abstract:

    The first part of this paper describes, for China, province-level variation in the year in which below-Replacement Fertility was achieved. The second part, also based on province-level data, is a multivariate analysis of the effects of (1) Fertility policy, and (2) economic and social development on Fertility in the year 2000. In 1975, only two provinces—Beijing and Shanghai—had below-Replacement Fertility, but by 2000, 29 out of 31 provinces had below-Replacement Fertility. Among these 29 provinces, 22 had a total Fertility rate (TFR) below 1.7, and 20 provinces had a TFR below 1.5. The main findings from the cross-sectional multivariate analysis of province-level variation in the TFR are that (1) depending on the measure of economic and social development used, between 33 and 42 percent of the effect of the one-child policy on the TFR, as measured by policy TFR, is actually due to development, and (2) the effect of policy TFR on TFR, after development is controlled for, is 38 to 50 percent less than the...

Pia Wohland - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • the demographic drivers of future ethnic group populations for uk local areas 2001 2051
    The Geographical Journal, 2013
    Co-Authors: Philip Rees, Pia Wohland, Paul Norman
    Abstract:

    Projections of the ethnic composition of the UK population presage radical change in the future at both national and local levels. The first question that users of such population projections ask is 'what is driving the results?' The answer can be found in the assumptions made for future mortality rates, future Fertility rates, future migration rates and flows, and the age-sex structure of the starting populations. But it is difficult to disentangle the component effects and demographic momentum. We adapt a methodology proposed and used by Bongaarts and Bulatao in 1999 (Population and Development Review 25 515-29) by extending to national, subnational and ethnic group projections, applying it to projections of the ethnic group populations in English local authorities. We assess the roles played by immigration assumptions (the subject of continuous public debate), Fertility assumptions, mortality assumptions and internal migration assumptions together with the role of the existing population age structure of each group in each area. Our findings are that positive immigration assumptions contribute to population growth in all local authorities, below Replacement Fertility lowers the population everywhere, declining mortality compensates for missing babies but substitutes elders and internal migration has very different effects depending on the local authority. Ethnic groups vary enormously in terms of the contribution of the current age structure. The demographic momentum of the White groups produces population declines while it is the most important demographic driver for some but not all of minority ethnic groups. The paper reports on the methods, assumptions and results associated with a systematic set of 'what if' projections. These enable us to determine the demographic drivers of future ethnic population change for England's local areas over the time horizon 2001-2051. © 2012 The Authors. The Geographical Journal