The Experts below are selected from a list of 21657 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Joseph Alcamo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Chapter Two Towards Guidelines for Environmental Scenario Analysis
Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, 2008Co-Authors: Joseph Alcamo, Thomas HenrichsAbstract:Publisher Summary Environmental assessments make use of a wide range of different approaches and methods for identifying concerns, analyzing problems, and testing possible response options. This chapter discusses some of the information available about experiences made in the development and Analysis of environmental Scenarios. From an environmental perspective, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change describes Scenarios as “images of the future or alternative futures that are neither projections nor forecasts.” While the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment recently defined Scenarios as “plausible and often simplified descriptions of the way the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.” Scenario Analysis is a broader concept encompassing both Scenario development and the Analysis of Scenarios. Scenario Analysis is a procedure covering the development of Scenarios, the comparison of Scenario results, and the evaluation of their consequences. The goal of environmental Scenario Analysis is to anticipate future developments of nature and society and to evaluate strategies for responding to these developments. Environmental Scenarios can be developed and analyzed for a host of different purposes. These can be clustered into three categories: education and public information, science and research, and decision support and strategic planning.
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environmental futures the practice of environmental Scenario Analysis
2008Co-Authors: Joseph AlcamoAbstract:Preface. 1.Introduction. 2. Towards Guidelines of Environmental Scenario Analysis. 3. Environmental Scenarios. A Survey. 4. Searching for the Future of Land: Scenarios from the Local to Global Scale. 5. Participation in Building Environmental Scenarios. 6. Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios of the Environment. 7. Scale Issues in Environmental Scenarios Development. 8. Trend Discontinuities and Surprises in Environmental Scenarios. 9. Closing Chapter.
Paola Zuddas - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a dss for water resources management under uncertainty by Scenario Analysis
Environmental Modelling and Software, 2005Co-Authors: Stefano Pallottino, Giovanni Maria Sechi, Paola ZuddasAbstract:In this paper we present a Scenario Analysis approach for water system planning and management under conditions of climatic and hydrological uncertainty. The Scenario Analysis approach examines a set of statistically independent hydrological Scenarios, and exploits the inner structure of their temporal evolution in order to obtain a ''robust'' decision policy, so that the risk of wrong decisions is minimised. In this approach uncertainty is modelled by a Scenario-tree in a multistage environment, which includes different possible configurations of inflows in a wide time-horizon. In this paper we propose a Decision Support System (DSS) that performs Scenario Analysis by identifying trends and essential features on which to base a robust decision policy. The DSS prevents obsolescence of optimiser codes, exploiting standard data format, and a graphical interface provides easy data-input and results Analysis for the user. Results show that Scenario Analysis could be an alternative approach to stochastic optimisation when no probabilistic rules can be adopted and deterministic models are inadequate to represent uncertainty. Moreover, experimentation for a real water resources system in Sardinia, Italy, shows that practitioners and end-users can adopt the DSS with ease.
Zengchuan Dong - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Water Security Scenario Analysis: Methodology and A Case Study
Advances in Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, 2009Co-Authors: Fang Tong, Zengchuan DongAbstract:Water security concerns for developing and managing water resources in an equitable, efficient and integrated manner for human survival and well-being. In this paper, a System Dynamics (SD) model for dynamic Scenario Analysis of urban water security strategies was set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, the SD Scenario Analysis was applied into the water security systems Scenario Analysis for Jurong city of South Jiangsu province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based Scenario Analysis method is effective and can serve as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve urban sustainability.
Lan Yu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Notice of Retraction Water Security Scenario Analysis: Methodology and a Case Study in South China
2011 5th International Conference on Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering, 2011Co-Authors: Tong Fang, Lan YuAbstract:Water security has increasingly become a key issue concerning social, economic and life security of mankind at both global and local levels. In this paper, a System Dynamics model for dynamic Scenario Analysis of regional water security strategies is set up based on the framework of Pressure-State-Response (PSR) in sustainable development theory, as well as the interactive and dynamic relationship among socio-economic and environmental system. As a case study, SD Scenario Analysis is applied into the water security systems Scenario Analysis for North River basin in Guangdong Province in China, and the corresponding water security strategies for sustainable development of this city were proposed as well. The results show that the SD based Scenario Analysis method is effective and therefore can be used as the guidance for various stakeholders concerned in modifying water security strategies to achieve regional sustainability.
Stephen Chan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Scenario Analysis and strategic planning practical applications for radiology practices
Journal of The American College of Radiology, 2010Co-Authors: Frank J Lexa, Stephen ChanAbstract:Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust Scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario Analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using Scenario Analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat.
