The Experts below are selected from a list of 4320 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform

Carlos Cabrelli - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Joao P S Catalao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • image phase Shift Invariance based cloud motion displacement vector calculation method for ultra short term solar pv power forecasting
    Energy Conversion and Management, 2018
    Co-Authors: Zhao Zhen, Fei Wang, Zengqiang Mi, Brimathias Hodge, Miadreza Shafiekhah, Joao P S Catalao
    Abstract:

    Abstract Irradiance received on the earth’s surface is the main factor that affects the output power of solar PV plants, and is chiefly determined by the cloud distribution seen in a ground-based sky image at the corresponding moment in time. It is the foundation for those linear extrapolation-based ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting approaches to obtain the cloud distribution in future sky images from the accurate calculation of cloud motion displacement vectors (CMDVs) by using historical sky images. Theoretically, the CMDV can be obtained from the coordinate of the peak pulse calculated from a Fourier phase correlation theory (FPCT) method through the frequency domain information of sky images. The peak pulse is significant and unique only when the cloud deformation between two consecutive sky images is slight enough, which is likely possible for a very short time interval (such as 1 min or shorter) with common changes in the speed of cloud. Sometimes, there will be more than one pulse with similar values when the deformation of the clouds between two consecutive sky images is comparatively obvious under fast changing cloud speeds. This would probably lead to significant errors if the CMDVs were still only obtained from the single coordinate of the peak value pulse. However, the deformation estimation of clouds between two images and its influence on FPCT-based CMDV calculations are terrifically complex and difficult because the motion of clouds is complicated to describe and model. Therefore, to improve the accuracy and reliability under these circumstances in a simple manner, an image-phase-Shift-Invariance (IPSI) based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is proposed for minute time scale solar power forecasting. First, multiple different CMDVs are calculated from the corresponding consecutive images pairs obtained through different synchronous rotation angles compared to the original images by using the FPCT method. Second, the final CMDV is generated from all of the calculated CMDVs through a centroid iteration strategy based on its density and distance distribution. Third, the influence of different rotation angle resolution on the final CMDV is analyzed as a means of parameter estimation. Simulations under various scenarios including both thick and thin clouds conditions indicated that the proposed IPSI-based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is more accurate and reliable than the original FPCT method, optimal flow (OF) method, and particle image velocimetry (PIV) method.

Gotz E Pfander - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Fei Wang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • image phase Shift Invariance based multi transform fusion method for cloud motion displacement calculation using sky images
    Energy Conversion and Management, 2019
    Co-Authors: Zhao Zhen, Zhiming Xuan, Fei Wang, Neven Duic
    Abstract:

    Abstract For minute time scale solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting, the motion of clouds over PV power plant mainly contribute to the fluctuant and intermittent nature of solar PV power output. Therefore, research on cloud motion displacement (CMD) calculation to realize cloud motion prediction is a key sub-process for minute time scale solar PV power forecasting approaches. Fourier phase correlation theory (FPCT) is widely applied in CMD calculation for its superiority of simplicity and less computation, then an improved algorithm based on image-phase-Shift-Invariance (IPSI) is proposed to reduce the outlier probability of CMD results. However, at present, the current IPSI algorithm still has limitations and cannot avoid the occurrence of outliers altogether. In this paper, we presented a novel method, termed IPSI based multi-transform-fusion (MTF) method, to further improve the effectiveness compared with traditional FPCT and affine transform based IPSI method. First, three image transform methods satisfying IPSI condition, respectively wavelet transform (WT), affine transform (AT), and convolution transform (CT), are explored. Then the information increment of the transformed sky images using the above three methods is analyzed, respectively. Second, we determine the suitable image transform method for IPSI algorithm under specific cloud condition according to the corresponding information increment. Third, an IPSI based MTF method for CMD calculation in sky images is proposed. The original sky images are transformed through WT, AT, and CT to generate multiple images that maintain the same object motion information, then calculate the CMDs in each generated image. Finally, we apply Gaussian distribution to fit the multiple CMD values and taking its mathematical expectation as final CMD result. Various experimental results in 4 different scenarios show that the performance of the proposed approach is better than FPCT, AT based IPSI, and OF method, by reducing plenty of CMD outliers, thus delivering greater accuracy and robustness.

  • image phase Shift Invariance based cloud motion displacement vector calculation method for ultra short term solar pv power forecasting
    Energy Conversion and Management, 2018
    Co-Authors: Zhao Zhen, Fei Wang, Zengqiang Mi, Brimathias Hodge, Miadreza Shafiekhah, Joao P S Catalao
    Abstract:

    Abstract Irradiance received on the earth’s surface is the main factor that affects the output power of solar PV plants, and is chiefly determined by the cloud distribution seen in a ground-based sky image at the corresponding moment in time. It is the foundation for those linear extrapolation-based ultra-short-term solar PV power forecasting approaches to obtain the cloud distribution in future sky images from the accurate calculation of cloud motion displacement vectors (CMDVs) by using historical sky images. Theoretically, the CMDV can be obtained from the coordinate of the peak pulse calculated from a Fourier phase correlation theory (FPCT) method through the frequency domain information of sky images. The peak pulse is significant and unique only when the cloud deformation between two consecutive sky images is slight enough, which is likely possible for a very short time interval (such as 1 min or shorter) with common changes in the speed of cloud. Sometimes, there will be more than one pulse with similar values when the deformation of the clouds between two consecutive sky images is comparatively obvious under fast changing cloud speeds. This would probably lead to significant errors if the CMDVs were still only obtained from the single coordinate of the peak value pulse. However, the deformation estimation of clouds between two images and its influence on FPCT-based CMDV calculations are terrifically complex and difficult because the motion of clouds is complicated to describe and model. Therefore, to improve the accuracy and reliability under these circumstances in a simple manner, an image-phase-Shift-Invariance (IPSI) based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is proposed for minute time scale solar power forecasting. First, multiple different CMDVs are calculated from the corresponding consecutive images pairs obtained through different synchronous rotation angles compared to the original images by using the FPCT method. Second, the final CMDV is generated from all of the calculated CMDVs through a centroid iteration strategy based on its density and distance distribution. Third, the influence of different rotation angle resolution on the final CMDV is analyzed as a means of parameter estimation. Simulations under various scenarios including both thick and thin clouds conditions indicated that the proposed IPSI-based CMDV calculation method using FPCT is more accurate and reliable than the original FPCT method, optimal flow (OF) method, and particle image velocimetry (PIV) method.

Ursula Molter - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.