The Experts below are selected from a list of 267 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Jennifer M. Piscopo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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women leaders and pandemic performance a Spurious Correlation
Politics & Gender, 2020Co-Authors: Jennifer M. PiscopoAbstract:The connection between women leaders and superior pandemic performance is likely Spurious. This narrative overlooks that women currently govern precisely the kinds of countries that should mount effective pandemic responses: wealthy democracies with high state capacity. This article maps where women currently serve as presidents and prime ministers. The article then uses data from the Varieties of Democracy Project and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development to show that many women-led countries score high on state capacity and that high-capacity states have low coronavirus mortality regardless of whether they are led by women or by men. Arguments emphasizing women chief executives’ superior pandemic performance, while offered in good faith, are misleading.
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Women leaders and pandemic performance: A Spurious Correlation
Politics & Gender, 2020Co-Authors: Jennifer M. PiscopoAbstract:The connection between women leaders and superior pandemic performance is likely Spurious This narrative overlooks that women currently govern precisely the kinds of countries that should mount effective pandemic responses: wealthy democracies with high state capacity This article maps where women currently serve as presidents and prime ministers The article then uses Varieties of Democracy and OECD data to show that many women-led countries score high on state capacity, and that high capacity states have low coronavirus mortality whether led by women or by men Arguments emphasizing women chief executives' superior pandemic performance, while offered in good faith, are misleading © 2020 Cambridge University Press All rights reserved
Jae H Kim - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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stock returns and investors mood good day sunshine or Spurious Correlation
International Review of Financial Analysis, 2017Co-Authors: Jae H KimAbstract:Abstract This paper critically evaluates the significant weather effect on stock return reported in two seminal studies of investors' mood on stock market. It is found that their research design of maximizing statistical power by pooling as many data points as possible is statistically flawed, with a consequence that the test is severely biased against the null hypothesis of no effect. Coupled with small effect size estimates and test statistics inflated by massive sample sizes, this strongly suggests Spurious statistical significance as an outcome of Type I error. The alternatives to the p-value criterion for statistical significance soundly support the null hypothesis of no weather effect. As an application, the effect of daily sunspot numbers on stock return is examined. Under the same research design as that of a seminal study, the number of sunspots is found to be highly statistically significant although its economic impact on stock return is negligible.
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stock returns and investors mood good day sunshine or Spurious Correlation
Social Science Research Network, 2016Co-Authors: Jae H KimAbstract:This paper critically evaluates the statistical significance of the weather effect on stock return reported in two seminal studies. It is found that their research design is statistically flawed and severely biased against the null hypothesis of no effect. This, coupled with the test statistics inflated by massive sample sizes, strongly suggests that the statistical significance is Spurious as an outcome of Type I error. The alternatives to the p-value criterion for statistical significance soundly support the null hypothesis of no weather effect. As an application, the effect of daily sunspot numbers on stock return is examined. Under the same research design as that of a seminal study, the number of sunspots is found to be highly statistically significant although its economic impact on stock return is negligible.
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stock returns and investors mood good day sunshine or Spurious Correlation
Research Papers in Economics, 2016Co-Authors: Jae H KimAbstract:This paper examines the validity of statistical significance reported in the seminal studies of the weather effect on stock return. It is found that their research design is statistically flawed and seriously biased against the null hypothesis of no effect. This, coupled with the test statistics inflated by massive sample sizes, strongly suggests that the statistical significance is Spurious as an outcome of Type I error. The alternatives to the p-value criterion for statistical significance soundly support the null hypothesis of no weather effect. As an application, the effect of daily sunspot numbers on stock return is examined. Under the same research design as that of a seminal study, the number of sunspots is found to be highly statistically significant although its economic impact on stock return is negligible.
Muhammad Irfan Malik - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The modified R a robust measure of association for time series
Electronic Journal of Applied Statistical Analysis, 2014Co-Authors: Atiq Ur Rehman, Muhammad Irfan MalikAbstract:Since times of Yule (1926), it is known that Correlation between two time series can produce Spurious results. Granger and Newbold (1974) see the roots of Spurious Correlation in non-stationarity of the time series. However the study of Granger, Hyung and Jeon (2001) prove that Spurious Correlation also exists in stationary time series. These facts make the Correlation coefficient an unreliable measure of association. This paper proposes ‘Modified R’ as an alternate measure of association for the time series. The Modified R is robust to the type of stationarity and type of deterministic part in the time series. The performance Modified R is illustrated via extensive Monte Carlo Experiments.
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The Modi ed R a Robust Measure of Association for Time Series
2014Co-Authors: Atiq Ur Rehman, Muhammad Irfan MalikAbstract:Since times of Yule (1926), it is known that Correlation between two time series can produce Spurious results. Granger and Newbold (1974) see the roots of Spurious Correlation in non-stationarity of the time series. However the study of Granger, Hyung and Jeon (2001) prove that Spurious Correlation also exists in stationary time series. These facts make the Correlation coefficient an unreliable measure of association. This paper proposes ‘Modified R’ as an alternate measure of association for the time series. The Modified R is robust to the type of stationarity and type of deterministic part in the time series. The performance Modified R is illustrated via extensive Monte Carlo Experiments.
Michael J. Roberts - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Slippage in the Conservation Reserve Program or Spurious Correlation? A Rejoinder
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2006Co-Authors: Michael J. Roberts, Shawn BucholzAbstract:The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) pays farmers about $2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten- to fifteen-year contracts. Recent research by Wu found that slippage—an unintended stimulus of new plantings—offsets some of CRP’s environmental benefits. Wu does not account for the endogeneity of CRP enrollments. Furthermore, the data used by Wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect. We replicate Wu’s findings, demonstrate the possible presence of Spurious Correlation, and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems. We find no convincing evidence of slippage.
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Slippage in the Conservation Reserve Program or Spurious Correlation? A Comment
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005Co-Authors: Michael J. Roberts, Shawn BucholzAbstract:The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) pays farmers about $2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten- to fifteen-year contracts. Recent research by Wu found that slippage - an unintended stimulus of new plantings - offsets some of CRP's environmental benefits. Wu does not account for the endogeneity of CRP enrollments. Furthermore, the data used by Wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect. We replicate Wu's findings, demonstrate the possible presence of Spurious Correlation, and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems. We find no convincing evidence of slippage.
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SLIPPAGE OR Spurious Correlation: AN ANALYSIS OF THE CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM
2002Co-Authors: Shawn Bucholtz, Michael J. RobertsAbstract:Previous research finds that some environmental benefits stemming from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) are offset by slippage: farmers simply plant more acreage to substitute for land that was idled. Our analysis shows that previous slippage estimates likely stem from Spurious Correlation. Most land retired under CRP is of lower-than-average quality. Due to the marginal economic viability of these lands they also are more likely to move both into and out of agricultural production. CRP enrollments therefore will be spatially correlated with non-cropland to cropland conversions even if no slippage is present. Using time-series rather than cross-sectional variation in CRP enrollments, we obtain new slippage estimates that control for land heterogeneity using fixed and random effects. Contrary to previous findings, we find little or no slippage in the form of new plantings of commodity crops. Moderate CRP-induced plantings take the form of new hay plantings that arise mostly from converted pastureland, but these conversions create little in the way of unintended environmental damages. Total commodity production is reduced by less than the proportion of acres idled because land retired is of lower-than-average quality and because it sometimes stood fallow or in hay before it was enrolled in CRP. Aside from its policy implications, our study demonstrates the crucial importance of accounting for spatial heterogeneity in empirical research.
Shawn Bucholz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Slippage in the Conservation Reserve Program or Spurious Correlation? A Rejoinder
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2006Co-Authors: Michael J. Roberts, Shawn BucholzAbstract:The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) pays farmers about $2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten- to fifteen-year contracts. Recent research by Wu found that slippage—an unintended stimulus of new plantings—offsets some of CRP’s environmental benefits. Wu does not account for the endogeneity of CRP enrollments. Furthermore, the data used by Wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect. We replicate Wu’s findings, demonstrate the possible presence of Spurious Correlation, and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems. We find no convincing evidence of slippage.
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Slippage in the Conservation Reserve Program or Spurious Correlation? A Comment
American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2005Co-Authors: Michael J. Roberts, Shawn BucholzAbstract:The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) pays farmers about $2 billion per year to retire cropland under ten- to fifteen-year contracts. Recent research by Wu found that slippage - an unintended stimulus of new plantings - offsets some of CRP's environmental benefits. Wu does not account for the endogeneity of CRP enrollments. Furthermore, the data used by Wu cannot be used to estimate slippage arising from a price feedback effect. We replicate Wu's findings, demonstrate the possible presence of Spurious Correlation, and construct new estimates with corrections for endogeneity and other econometric problems. We find no convincing evidence of slippage.
