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Emilian Dobrescu - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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restatement of the i o coefficient stability problem
MPRA Paper, 2012Co-Authors: Emilian DobrescuAbstract:The capacity of input-output tables to reflect the structural peculiarities of an economy and to forecast, on this basis, its evolution, depends essentially on the characteristics of the matrix A—matrix of I-O (or technical) coefficients. However,the temporal behaviour of these coefficients is yet an open question. In most applications,the stability of matrix A is usually admitted. This is a reasonable assumption only for a short-medium term. In the case of longer intervals, the question is much more complicated. We shall empirically discuss this problem by using Romanian input-output tables. Our Statistical option was motivated inter alia by the existence of official annual data for two decades (1989–2009). As an introduction, Sect. 1 characterises the general framework of paper. Section 2—The main characteristics of I-O coefficients as Statistical time Series—examines the variability of technical coefficients expressed in both volume and value terms. The analysis is convergent to other previous works, confirming that the evolution of these coefficients in real and nominal terms is roughly similar. The main finding of this section is that, on one hand, the I-O coefficients are volatile, but on the other, they are serially correlated. Consequently, Sect. 3—Attractor hypothesis—examines a possible presence of attractors in corresponding Statistical Series. The paper describes a methodology to approximate these using new indicators obtained by summation—in columns and rows—of the technical coefficients (colsums scaj and rowsums srai). The RAS method is involved as a connecting technique between these indicators and sectoral data. Section 4—Conclusions—presents the main conclusions of the research and outlines several possible future developments. The database and econometric analysis are presented in Statistical and Econometric Appendix.
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restatement of the i o coefficient stability problem
2012Co-Authors: Emilian DobrescuAbstract:The capacity of input-output tables to reflect the structural peculiarities of an economy and to forecast, on this basis, its evolution, depends essentially on the characteristics of the matrix A - matrix of I-O (or technical) coefficients. Their temporal behaviour is yet an open question. In most applications, the stability of matrix A is usually admitted. This is a reasonable assumption only for a short-medium term. In the case of longer intervals, the question is much more complicated. We shall empirically discuss this problem by using Romanian input-output tables. Our Statistical option was motivated inter alia by the existence of official annual data for two decades (1989-2009). As an introduction, Section I characterises the general framework of paper. Section II - The main characteristics of I-O coefficients as Statistical time Series - examines the variability of technical coefficients expressed in both volume and value terms. The analysis is convergent to other previous works, confirming that the evolution of these coefficients in real and nominal terms is roughly similar. The main finding of this section is that, on one hand, the I-O coefficients are volatile, but on the other, they are serially correlated. Consequently, Section III - Attractor hypothesis - examines a possible presence of attractors in corresponding Statistical Series. The paper describes a methodology to approximate these using new indicators obtained by summation - in columns and rows - of the technical coefficients (colsums scaj and rowsums srai). The RAS method is involved as a connecting technique between these indicators and sectoral data. Section IV - Conclusions - presents the main conclusions of the research and outlines several possible future developments. The database and econometric analysis are presented in a special Appendix.
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macromodel of the romanian market economy version 2005
MPRA Paper, 2006Co-Authors: Emilian DobrescuAbstract:The macromodel will be used to investigate short and medium–run economic implications of internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel benefites from the experience gained by the author during the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, this model introduces some methodological and informational improvements, in comparison to previous versions. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of economy, according to the input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) construction; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These categories can be easily translated into the classical three-sectors classification: primary (a+b), secondary (c+d), and tertiary (e+f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were modelled - as much as possible - by the standard relationships. Besides, unlike the previous versions, that used Statistical Series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information regarding the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). When there were several informational sources for the same indicator, we preferred the data extracted or derived from national accounts. The Statistical Series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transforming processes of transition). Although, it is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer reliable results in the case of limited number of observations, generally the Series satisfying it were used. The Granger causality test was computed for one, two, and three lags. The simplest methods of estimation were also preferred. The structural breaks in the evolution of some indicators have been dealt by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The main relationships are grouped in seven sections: input-output block; labour market, production function; domestic absorption, foreign trade, prices and exchange rate, and interest rate. The first two chapters present conceptual framework of macromodel and econometric analysis on which it is based. The next one describes a possible scenario for the Romanian economy during 2005-2010 years. The final part of paper contains a set of simulations revealing some operational features of the macromodel.
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macromodels of the romanian transition economy
MPRA Paper, 1996Co-Authors: Emilian DobrescuAbstract:The present book contains six chapters. In the first, the Romanian transition economy is characterized as a weakly structured economy (from the institutional point of view) with its main features: the poorly defined ownership rights, the limited effectiveness of new market mechanisms, the significant role of informal institutions, the behavioural instability of economic agents, the great influence of resources' allocation by the political factor. These features have many macroeconomic implications, of which three are especially analyzed: the waste of economic resources induced by the fuzzy ownership structure, by uncertainty and high transaction costs; the deep fracture between the real and nominal sectors; the presence of numerous economic activities not included in the official statistics (nonaccounted economy). The next chapter describes the main indicators used in the macromodel of the Romanian transition economy (definitions, symbols, specifications, relations among them, in accordance with the methodologies adopted by national statistics). The third chapter approaches the econometric problems. Unfortunately, the microeconomic foundations of the transition are not sufficiently studied and, in effect, in many cases we lack the necessary assumptions for building up econometric functions. On the other hand, the same Statistical Series are relatively short and are based on conventional simplifications imposed by the translation of the former methodologies (from material production system) to the language of the national accounts. Being weakly structured, the transition economy does not yet reveal consistent trends. Despite the unavoidable (under these conditions) instability of individual econometric functions, their integration into the macromodel, including the equilibrium constraints (accounting identities), can ensure acceptable results for short-run forecasts. Twenty econometric functions have been elaborated. They deal with: real output of the Romanian economy, domestic aggregate demand, investment,export, labour force, labour productivity, exchange rate, main deflators, labour incomes, households production for self-consumption, evolution of the nonaccounted economy, monetary processes. These functions reflect the peculiarities of the Romanian experience. It is possible that other transition economies may show similar tendencies, but eventual generalizations require supplementary researches. The fourth chapter is dedicated to the main version of the macromodel of the Romanian transition economy. Its tests for 1992 - 1995 (the 1994 - 1995 are presented herein), gave encouraging results. Consequently, it has been used for previsional estimations. Thus, in the fifth chapter, some possible scenarios of the evolution of the Romanian economy between 1996 - 2000 are examined. This analysis demonstrates that oniy a deep restructuring process is able to determine sound, long term sustainable, economic growth. Among the necessary policies I can mention: the realization of an ownership structure adequate to a modern market economy; the drastic limitation of inefficient economic activities subsidized by the state budget; the improvement of corporate governance; the progressive integration of Romania into the European and world economy; the effective functioning of different markets, including the capital one; maintenance of the inflation under control by a prudent monetary policy; lowering the share of the budget expenditures in GDP and the promotion, on this basis, of a rational fiscality. The last chapter examines an extended version of the macromodel, in which the general consolidated budget is explicitly presented. At the same time, other possible developments of the macromodel are outlined; its qualities and limits are mentioned. The most important problem remains the instability of the econometric functions. Consequently, it is necessary to reestimate them every year, taking into account new findings of the theory related to the transition and new Statistical information. In other words, the macromodel must be permanently updated. In this way, a sort of sliding macroeconomic modelling is practiced. The appendices of the book contain a relevant set of macroeconomic indicators of Romania for the period 1980 -1995, the detailed presentation of the econometric functions and of the macroeconomic estimations, as well as a selective bibliography.
Corina Saman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the dobrescu macromodel of the romanian market economy 2005 version yearly forecast the second actualised scenario
Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2007Co-Authors: Bianca Pauna, Ion Ghizdeanu, Cornelia Scutaru, Petre Fomin, Corina SamanAbstract:Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy***** In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest; for a description of the model see the previous number of the Journal [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) constructions; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These can be easily translated into classical three-sector classification: primary (a-b), secondary (c-d), and tertiary (e-f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the Statistical Series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). When there were several Statistical sources for the same indicator, we preferred the data extracted or derived from national accounts. The Statistical Series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transformation processes of transition). It is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer sure results in the case of limited number of observations. Nevertheless, the Series satisfying it were used, as a rule. The Granger causality test was computed for one, two, and three lags. The simplest methods of estimation were also preferred. The structural breaks in the evolution of some indicators were attenuated by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of the econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The main relationships are grouped in seven sections: input-output block; labour market, production function; domestic absorption, foreign trade, prices and exchange rate, and interest rate. * PHARE Programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission of Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies. ***** Source: Emilian DOBRESCU: “Macromodels of the Romanian Market Economy”, Editura Economica, Bucharest 2006.
Maja Piecyk - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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measurement of co2 emissions from road freight transport a review of uk experience
Energy Policy, 2009Co-Authors: Alan Campbell Mckinno, Maja PiecykAbstract:It is possible to estimate CO2 emissions from road freight transport in different ways, depending on the definition of trucking activity, the degree of reliance on survey, vehicle test-cycle and traffic count data and the geographical scope of the calculation. The emergence of differing road freight-related CO2 estimates from official sources and revisions to Statistical Series can frustrate the policy-making process and erode the confidence of industry stakeholders in the validity of the figures. Using UK data, this paper examines the various methods of carbon auditing road freight transport at the national level and compares the results both for a single year (2006) and over a time period. It highlights a Series of Statistical anomalies and approximations and tries to explain discrepancies that have arisen in the UK data sets. A concluding section considers the general lessons that can be learned from the recent UK experience in this field.
Guevara Sebastián - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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La industria automotriz argentina y sus fuentes de ganancia: un análisis de largo plazo (1960-2013)
2018Co-Authors: Fitzsimons, Alejandro Luis, Guevara SebastiánAbstract:This paper studies the historical development of the automotive industry in Argentina from 1960 to 2013. The main argument is that multinational companies operating locally had a specific or distinctive way of capital valorization, vis à vis other national cases. This specificity was essentially the appropriation of agrarian ground rent by the automotive industrial capital through two main mechanisms, namely, the cheapening of the labor force and high domestic or regional prices. In this way, the automotive multinational companies compensated for the small production scale, out-dated technology, and low labor productivity in its factories in Argentina. These arguments are supported by the international comparison of wages, carried out through original Statistical Series, and the analysis of other evidences retrieved from specialized literature.Este trabajo estudia el desarrollo histórico de la industria automotriz argentina desde 1960 hasta 2013. El argumento principal es que la valorización del capital de las empresas multinacionales que operan localmente tiene una forma específica o distintiva respecto de otros casos nacionales. Esta especificidad consiste, esencialmente, en la apropiación de renta de la tierra agraria por el capital industrial automotriz por medio de dos mecanismos principales, a saber: el abaratamiento de la fuerza de trabajo y la venta en el mercado interno y/o regional a precios superiores a los internacionales. De este modo, los capitales automotrices compensaron la pequeña escala de producción, la tecnología atrasada y la resultante baja productividad del trabajo de sus fábricas en Argentina. Estos argumentos se fundamentan mediante la comparación internacional de salarios, realizada con Series de elaboración propia, y el análisis de otras evidencias presentadas por la literatura especializada
Bianca Pauna - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the dobrescu macromodel of the romanian market economy 2005 version yearly forecast the second actualised scenario
Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2007Co-Authors: Bianca Pauna, Ion Ghizdeanu, Cornelia Scutaru, Petre Fomin, Corina SamanAbstract:Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy***** In this article we present only the economic forecast of the variable of interest; for a description of the model see the previous number of the Journal [4]. The macromodel estimates the short and medium-term economic implications for internal policies and of changes in the international context. This new version of the Romanian macromodel incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (tested during 1991-1995) or operational (developed during 1996-2003). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and information improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of the economy, associated with input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) constructions; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These can be easily translated into classical three-sector classification: primary (a-b), secondary (c-d), and tertiary (e-f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were accommodated - as much as possible - to the standard relationships. Unlike the versions that used the Statistical Series beginning with 1980, the present one is based exclusively on information concerning the period 1989-2004. Therefore, we have considered more adequate to name this variant the macromodel of the Romanian market (not transition, as before) economy. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). When there were several Statistical sources for the same indicator, we preferred the data extracted or derived from national accounts. The Statistical Series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transformation processes of transition). It is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer sure results in the case of limited number of observations. Nevertheless, the Series satisfying it were used, as a rule. The Granger causality test was computed for one, two, and three lags. The simplest methods of estimation were also preferred. The structural breaks in the evolution of some indicators were attenuated by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of the econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The main relationships are grouped in seven sections: input-output block; labour market, production function; domestic absorption, foreign trade, prices and exchange rate, and interest rate. * PHARE Programme RO2003/005-551.02.03 "Strengthening the capacity for analysis, macroeconomic forecast and elaboration of economic policies within the National Commission of Prognosis, the Ministry of Economy and Trade and the Prime Minister's Cabinet” – Romanian Center for Economic Policies. ***** Source: Emilian DOBRESCU: “Macromodels of the Romanian Market Economy”, Editura Economica, Bucharest 2006.