The Experts below are selected from a list of 71175 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Guanghua Wan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2007Co-Authors: Yin Zhang, Guanghua WanAbstract:This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldos (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China’s Trade Balance fluctuations in the period of 1985–2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in Trade Balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined—the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock, and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China’s Trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the Trade Balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China’s Trade ‘imBalance’.
Lin Fen - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Regional Trade Openness,Trade Balance and Fiscal Spillovers
Finance and Trade Research, 2015Co-Authors: Lin FenAbstract:Utilizing provincial panel data from 1997 to 2011,this paper constructs a dynamic spatial panel model to test the dynamic spatial impacts of fiscal expenditure on Trade Balance with the perspective of Trade openness. The study indicates that provincial fiscal expenditure exerts rare effects on Trade Balance while Trade openness has significantly negative effect on Trade Balance. Meanwhile,neighboring fiscal expenditure and Trade openness lower the improvement of Trade Balance of the province,which shows that a good coordination mechanism has not been constructed among regions. The dynamic spatial impacts of fiscal expenditure and Trade openness on Trade Balance are significant regional heterogeneity from the view of regional level. Therefore,coordinated development issues in terms of regional fiscal expenditure and Trade openness should be considered.
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Regional Trade Openness, Fiscal Expenditure Expansion and China's Trade Balance Linkage
Contemporary Finance and Economics, 2015Co-Authors: Lin FenAbstract:Considering the differences of regional Trade openness, this paper constructs a provincial panel threshold model and conducts an empirical test of the nonlinear comovement relation between China's fiscal expenditure and Trade Balance. The results show that the impact of China's fiscal expenditure on Trade Balance could present significant threshold characteristics due to the differences of regional Trade openness. For such provinces with low Trade openness, the impact of fiscal expenditure on Trade Balance is not significant, and then the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is established. As for provinces with medium Trade openness, fiscal expenditure and Trade Balance present the" double divergence"effect; the fiscal expenditure expansion could improve Trade Balance effectively. However,for provinces with higher Trade openness, fiscal expenditure and Trade Balance have a"twin deficits"relation; the fiscal expenditure expansion would lead to worsening Trade Balance. It also shows that the threshold effects at each region are subject to the fiscal expenditure structure, the impact of transfer expenditure on Trade Balance is higher than purchase expenditure.
Toyin Segun Ogunleye - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in Nigeria
African Development Review, 2014Co-Authors: Nkenchor Neville Igue, Toyin Segun OgunleyeAbstract:type="main" xml:lang="en"> The study investigated whether the depreciation of exchange rate has a favourable impact on Trade Balance in Nigeria, based on the Marshall–Lerner (ML) condition. The Johansen method of cointegration and vector error correction methodology (VECM) was employed to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between Trade Balance and the specified set of independent variables. The results confirm the satisfaction of the Marshall–Lerner condition in Nigeria, implying that depreciation of the exchange rate has a positive effect on Trade Balance in the long run. The study also established that a one per cent depreciation in the exchange rate would improve Trade Balance by 1.16 per cent. In the light of these findings, the study recommends a gradual depreciation of the exchange rate, which should be accompanied with export policy that encourages domestic production of non-oil products for exports.
Bernard Njindan Iyke - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The Real Exchange Rate, the Ghanaian Trade Balance, and the J-curve
Journal of African Business, 2017Co-Authors: Bernard Njindan IykeAbstract:Using linear and nonlinear specifications, we studied the effects of real exchange rate changes on the Trade Balance of Ghana during the period 1986Q1 to 2016Q3. We found no evidence in support of the short- and long-run impact of exchange rate changes on the Trade Balance in the linear specification. The J-curve is refuted in this case. In contrast, exchange rate changes affected the Trade Balance in the nonlinear specification. Depreciations improve the Trade Balance in the long run, but appreciations have no impact. Hence, exchange rate changes have nonlinear effects on the Trade Balance. This is consistent with the J-curve phenomenon.
Elif Akbostancı - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2004Co-Authors: Elif AkbostancıAbstract:The J-curve hypothesis suggests a specific pattern for the response of the Trade Balance to real exchange rate changes; a real depreciation initially worsens the Trade Balance, but through time the Trade Balance improves, and thus the response of the Trade Balance over time generates a tilted J-shape. This study investigates the existence of a J-curve in the Turkish data in the 1987-2000 period by using quarterly data. First, an error correction model is estimated to differentiate between the long-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics. Then the response of Trade Balance to real exchange rate shocks is investigated by using the generalized impulse response methodology. Even though the suggested long-run pattern, which is the improvement of the Trade Balance in response to a real depreciation emerges, our results do not exactly support the J-curve hypothesis in the short run.