Trade Statistics

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Shunli Yao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt
    China Economic Review, 2010
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper develops a mathematical programming model to reconcile Trade Statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepot. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted Trade Statistics are achieved as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 Trade Statistics reported by China, Hong Kong and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral Trade flows, re-export markups, cif / fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

  • Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners--A Mathematical Programming Approach
    2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model to simultaneously estimate re-export markups and reconcile bilateral Trade Statistics between China, Hong Kong, and their trading partners. The model is applied to sector level Trade flows to resolve discrepant reporting in an efficient manner. Adjustments in Trade flows are based upon statistical reporters’ reliability information. The program is implemented in GAMS and retains many desirable theoretical and empirical properties. Estimates are used for generating Trade flows and markups for Hong Kong’s re-exports used in the forthcoming version 7 GTAP database. The model’s flexibility has potential for expanded use in other regions where re-exports and associated markup cause discrepant Trade flows.

  • Reconciling Bilateral Trade Statistics in the Presence of Re-exports via Third Countries:The Case of China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners
    2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model to simultaneously estimate reexport markups and reconcile bilateral Trade Statistics between China, Hong Kong, and their trading partners. The model is applied to GTAP sector level Trade flows to resolve discrepant reporting in an efficient manner. Adjustments in Trade flows are based upon particular bilateral Trade routines reliability as well as statistical reporter’s reliability information. The program is implemented in GAMS and retains many desirable theoretical and empirical properties. Estimates are used for generating Trade flows and markups for Hong Kong’s reexports used in the forthcoming version 7 GTAP database. The model’s flexibility has potential for expanded use in other regions where re-exports and associated markup cause discrepant Trade flows.

  • A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt
    Research Papers in Economics, 2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematicla programming model to reconcile Trade Statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepot. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted Trade Statistics are achived as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 Trade Statistics reported by China, Hong Kong, and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral Trade flows, re-export markups, cif/fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

  • A Mathematical Programming Model to Estimate Re-export Markup and Reconcile Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and the United Sates
    2006
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    A large share of China’s Trade with the U.S. and with the world passes through Hong Kong. These Hong Kong re-exports are not clearly differentiated in either the U.S. or Chinese Trade data, leading to conflicting measures of bilateral Trade balances. It is quite incredible that much of current debate on China’s exchange rate and US Trade policy towards China are greatly influenced by the US Trade deficit with China, the actual size of the US-China bilateral Trade deficit is not actually known! For example, a comparison of Trade Statistics from China Customs, U.S. and Hong Kong Census shows a statistical discrepancy between China & Hong Kong reported exports to the United States and U.S. reported imports from China & and Hong Kong of about $40.5 billion in 2004, even after taking into account China’s re-exports via Hong Kong to the United States. As the role of Hong Kong in US-China Trade declines over past decades (The share of Hong Kong re-export to US for China as China’s total export to US decline from more than 50 percent in the mid 1990s to less than 25 percent in recent years), the annual growth in the statistical discrepancy has been rapid--from less than 3 percent in 1997 to nearly 20 percent of total US imports from China & Hong Kong in 2004. To resolve this puzzle, this paper developed a mathematical programming model with both accounting and behavior constraints, based on detailed Chinese, Hong Kong and U.S. Statistics on imports, exports and re-exports, to adjust U.S.-China Trade data for re-export markups and accounting differences from 1995-2004. Preliminary result at one digit HS level shows that the model is able to eliminate the discrepancy efficiently under different error structure assumptions, Hong Kongs re-export mark-up rate and each countrys re-exports via Hong Kong as percent of the countrys total exports are part of the model solution. Therefore, the model provides a flexible tool to reconcile Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and the United Sates simultaneously. The model is implemented in GAMS and used for production of the Hong Kong re-exports adjusted Trade flows contributing to version 7 GTAP database.

Alicia Estes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

Zhi Wang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • a time series database for global Trade production and consumption linkages
    2010
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Marinos Tsigas, Jesse Mora, Xin Li, Daniel Xu
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model integrating individual country input-output (I-O) tables with detailed bilateral Trade Statistics through a three-stage optimization procedure to produce a consistent annual world I-O database. The global balanced Trade and I-O Statistics are obtained as a solution to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. The model can be used annually to update the world I-O table when industry level production and Trade Statistics become available. This time-series database integrates global Trade, production and consumption Statistics in a consistent accounting framework. It provides a benchmark for dynamic AGE model calibration and baseline validation. In addition, it is particularly useful for the analysis of vertical specialization in global production and the interactions between different industries at different geographic locations that contribute to the same industrial value chain.

  • A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt
    China Economic Review, 2010
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    Abstract This paper develops a mathematical programming model to reconcile Trade Statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepot. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted Trade Statistics are achieved as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 Trade Statistics reported by China, Hong Kong and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral Trade flows, re-export markups, cif / fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

  • Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners--A Mathematical Programming Approach
    2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model to simultaneously estimate re-export markups and reconcile bilateral Trade Statistics between China, Hong Kong, and their trading partners. The model is applied to sector level Trade flows to resolve discrepant reporting in an efficient manner. Adjustments in Trade flows are based upon statistical reporters’ reliability information. The program is implemented in GAMS and retains many desirable theoretical and empirical properties. Estimates are used for generating Trade flows and markups for Hong Kong’s re-exports used in the forthcoming version 7 GTAP database. The model’s flexibility has potential for expanded use in other regions where re-exports and associated markup cause discrepant Trade flows.

  • Reconciling Bilateral Trade Statistics in the Presence of Re-exports via Third Countries:The Case of China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners
    2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematical programming model to simultaneously estimate reexport markups and reconcile bilateral Trade Statistics between China, Hong Kong, and their trading partners. The model is applied to GTAP sector level Trade flows to resolve discrepant reporting in an efficient manner. Adjustments in Trade flows are based upon particular bilateral Trade routines reliability as well as statistical reporter’s reliability information. The program is implemented in GAMS and retains many desirable theoretical and empirical properties. Estimates are used for generating Trade flows and markups for Hong Kong’s reexports used in the forthcoming version 7 GTAP database. The model’s flexibility has potential for expanded use in other regions where re-exports and associated markup cause discrepant Trade flows.

  • A Globally Consistent Framework for Reliability-based Trade Statistics Reconciliation in the Presence of an Entrepôt
    Research Papers in Economics, 2007
    Co-Authors: Zhi Wang, Mark J. Gehlhar, Shunli Yao
    Abstract:

    This paper develops a mathematicla programming model to reconcile Trade Statistics subject to a set of global consistency conditions in the presence of an entrepot. Initial data reliability serves a key function for governing the magnitude of adjustment. Through a two-stage optimization procedure, the adjusted Trade Statistics are achived as solutions to a system of simultaneous equations that minimize a quadratic penalty function. As an empirical illustration, the model is applied to reconcile the 2004 Trade Statistics reported by China, Hong Kong, and their major trading partners, initialized with detailed estimates of bilateral Trade flows, re-export markups, cif/fob ratios and data reliability indexes.

Jia Huai-qi - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Some Basic Problems about Ownership-Based Trade Statistics and Account
    Journal of International Trade, 2010
    Co-Authors: Jia Huai-qi
    Abstract:

    This paper discusses and clarifies some basic problems: the basic concept and coverage about ownership-based Trade Statistics and account,its economic background and evolution process,the foundation of its standards.It is our hope to provide the basic frameworks and route support for the study in this field.

  • The Evolution Philosophy of the Trade-Partner Criteria in Trade Statistics: Negation-of-Negation
    Journal of International Trade, 2006
    Co-Authors: Jia Huai-qi
    Abstract:

    In order to strengthen the comparability of international Trade Statistics, the criterion of origin/consumption countries based on the residence has taken place of the criterion of sale/purchase countries, which could be considered as an ownership criterion at its lower level since the end of the 1940s. But it's becoming more and more difficult to measure the true gain-and-loss of the partner-countries in their international transactions for this residence-based criterion. So a higher-level ownership criterion is explored by some experts abroad as well as scholars at home in Trade Statistics. It is the so-called negation-of-negation and spiral-rising in the evolution philosophy of the Trade partner criteria in Trade Statistics.

Kazuyo Matsubae - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.

  • Product flow analysis using Trade Statistics and consumer survey data: a case study of mobile phones in Australia
    Journal of Cleaner Production, 2016
    Co-Authors: Artem Golev, Timothy T. Werner, Kazuyo Matsubae
    Abstract:

    This study describes an integrative approach to product flow analysis of (waste) electrical and electronic equipment using Trade Statistics and consumer survey data. We demonstrate this approach with a case study of mobile phones. Using statistical and empirical data for Australia over 1997–2014, we have shown how different sources of information can be collated and cross-checked to estimate the product in-use stocks and flows, product lifespan and lifespan structure, as well as to detail the product age structure in stock and at the end of life. From our results, the total number of mobile phones in in-use stocks in Australia has been estimated at 46 million at the end of 2014, or about 2 phones per capita. The proportion of phones kept in storage (not being in use) has been constantly rising, reaching 50% in 2012–2014. The average expected lifespan for a mobile phone sold in Australia decreased from about six years in the late 1990s to about five years in the early 2000s, and then stabilised at around four years (±0.5 years). The average time of active use for mobile phones was estimated in the range of 2.0–2.6 years (which includes first use and reuse). The estimated lifespan profile for mobile phones in Australia has been confirmed to be relatively similar to that reported in Japan. While this methodology presented here provided meaningful results, the accuracy and relevance would be improved by better quality of original data. Therefore, in conclusion, we also highlight potential improvements in consumer surveys that would help to enhance the analysis.

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