The Experts below are selected from a list of 999 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Marcello Basili - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Aggregation of not independent experts’ opinions under ambiguity
Structural Safety, 2015Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Luca PratelliAbstract:Abstract We consider an aggregation scheme of opinions expressed through different probability distributions or multiple priors decision model. The decision-maker adopts entropy maximization as a measure of risk diversification and a rational form of prudence for valuing uncertain outcomes. We show a new aggregation rule based on the composite value function that is able to represent asymmetric attitude on extreme events (optimism with respect to Windfall Gains and pessimism with respect to catastrophic events) and a rational prudence on ordinary events. We define when the new rule preserves stochastic dominance.
-
Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences - Risk Perception and Ambiguity in a Quantile Cumulative Prospect Theory
Human-Centric Decision-Making Models for Social Sciences, 2013Co-Authors: Marcello BasiliAbstract:This chapter introduces a version of Cumulative Prospect Theory in a quantile utility model with multiple priors on possible events as proposed in [8]. The chapter analyzes the decision-maker’s risk and ambiguity perception facing ordinary and exterme events. It is showed a new functional that models asymmetric attitude with respect to ambiguity on extreme events (optimism respects Windfall Gains and pessimism respects catastrophic events) and the decision-maker’s attitude to consider maximization of entropy as a rule of inference. Finally, it is defined a simplified approach based on the epsilon contamination method of a probability distribution.
-
Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on Windfall Gains and pessimism on catatrophic losses
Ecological Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf, Fulvio FontiniAbstract:The paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and ambiguity. Differently from existing papers [Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A., Fontini, F., 2005. Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes, Theory and Decision 58, 195-207; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. Axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks. Resources and Energy Economics 22, 221-231; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. In: El-Shaarawi, A.,H., Piegorsch, W.W. (Eds.), Catastropic Risks. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 274-279], we assume that, in a Choquet Expected Utility framework, the decision-maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar (catastrophic) losses, optimistic with respect to unfamiliar (Windfall) Gains and ambiguity-neutral with respect to the familiar world. A representation of the decision-maker's choice is obtained that mimics the Restricted Bayes-Hurwicz Criterion. In this way a characterization of the Precautionary Principle is introduced for decision-making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and/or Windfall Gains.
-
Precautionary Principle as a Rule of Choice with Optimism on Windfall Gains and Pessimism on Catastrophic Losses
Ecological Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf, Fulvio FontiniAbstract:The paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and ambiguity. Differently from existing papers [Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A., Fontini, F., 2005. Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes, Theory and Decision 58, 195-207; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. Axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks. Resources and Energy Economics 22, 221-231; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. In: El-Shaarawi, A.,H., Piegorsch, W.W. (Eds.), Catastropic Risks. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 274-279], we assume that, in a Choquet Expected Utility framework, the decision-maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar (catastrophic) losses, optimistic with respect to unfamiliar (Windfall) Gains and ambiguity-neutral with respect to the familiar world. A representation of the decision-maker's choice is obtained that mimics the Restricted Bayes-Hurwicz Criterion. In this way a characterization of the Precautionary Principle is introduced for decision-making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and/or Windfall Gains.
-
A Rational Decision Rule with Extreme Events
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2006Co-Authors: Marcello BasiliAbstract:Risks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or Windfall Gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decisionmaker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed.
John S. Jahera - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Abnormal returns of thrift versus non-thrift IPOs
Journal of Economics and Finance, 1999Co-Authors: James R. Barth, Daniel E. Page, John S. JaheraAbstract:This paper examines the issue of underpricing for converting thrift institutions. Evidence has found this underpricing to be pervasive in the mutual-to-stock thrift conversion process. The issue is of importance given the debate over whether any Windfall Gains should accrue to depositors, managers, or taxpayers. An event study is conducted to determine if there is a significant difference between the initial returns of thrift and non-thrift IPOs. Our overall results indicate that a significant difference does exist.
-
Abnormal returns of thrift versus non-thrift IPOs
Journal of Economics and Finance, 1999Co-Authors: James R. Barth, Daniel E. Page, John S. JaheraAbstract:This paper examines the issue of underpricing for converting thrift institutions. Evidence has found this underpricing to be pervasive in the mutual-to-stock thrift conversion process. The issue is of importance given the debate over whether any Windfall Gains should accrue to depositors, managers, or taxpayers. An event study is conducted to determine if there is a significant difference between the initial returns of thrift and non-thrift IPOs. Our overall results indicate that a significant difference does exist. Copyright Springer 1999
Fulvio Fontini - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Precautionary principle as a rule of choice with optimism on Windfall Gains and pessimism on catatrophic losses
Ecological Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf, Fulvio FontiniAbstract:The paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and ambiguity. Differently from existing papers [Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A., Fontini, F., 2005. Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes, Theory and Decision 58, 195-207; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. Axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks. Resources and Energy Economics 22, 221-231; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. In: El-Shaarawi, A.,H., Piegorsch, W.W. (Eds.), Catastropic Risks. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 274-279], we assume that, in a Choquet Expected Utility framework, the decision-maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar (catastrophic) losses, optimistic with respect to unfamiliar (Windfall) Gains and ambiguity-neutral with respect to the familiar world. A representation of the decision-maker's choice is obtained that mimics the Restricted Bayes-Hurwicz Criterion. In this way a characterization of the Precautionary Principle is introduced for decision-making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and/or Windfall Gains.
-
Precautionary Principle as a Rule of Choice with Optimism on Windfall Gains and Pessimism on Catastrophic Losses
Ecological Economics, 2008Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Alain Chateauneuf, Fulvio FontiniAbstract:The paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and ambiguity. Differently from existing papers [Basili, M., Chateauneuf, A., Fontini, F., 2005. Choices under ambiguity with familiar and unfamiliar outcomes, Theory and Decision 58, 195-207; Chichilnisky, G., 2000. Axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks. Resources and Energy Economics 22, 221-231; Chichilnisky, G., 2002. In: El-Shaarawi, A.,H., Piegorsch, W.W. (Eds.), Catastropic Risks. Encyclopedia of Environmetrics, vol. 1. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, pp. 274-279], we assume that, in a Choquet Expected Utility framework, the decision-maker is pessimistic with respect to unfamiliar (catastrophic) losses, optimistic with respect to unfamiliar (Windfall) Gains and ambiguity-neutral with respect to the familiar world. A representation of the decision-maker's choice is obtained that mimics the Restricted Bayes-Hurwicz Criterion. In this way a characterization of the Precautionary Principle is introduced for decision-making processes under ambiguity with catastrophic losses and/or Windfall Gains.
-
Choices under Risk and Uncertainty with Windfall Gains and Catastrophic Losses
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2001Co-Authors: Marcello Basili, Fulvio FontiniAbstract:This paper investigates a decision-making process involving both risk and uncertainty. The decision-maker is supposed to split events between "familiar", and "unfamiliar" ones, and she/he is assumed to behave differently with respect to them. In particular, it is showed that the DM overweighs unfamiliar Gains and losses in his/her expected utility, formalized by means of the Choquet expected utility functional. If a specific subset of capacities is considered a further representation of the CEU is obtained in which the whole weight of uncertainty is placed on the Windfall gain and the catastrophic loss.
Henry Ohlsson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Self-Employment and Windfall Gains: Evidence from the Swedish Lottery
The Economic Journal, 1996Co-Authors: Thomas Lindh, Henry OhlssonAbstract:Is the decision to become self-employed constrained by access to credit? Swedish microdata suggest that the probability of being self-employed increases when people receive Windfall Gains in the form of lottery winnings and inheritances. The data, therefore, are consistent with the hypothesis that liquidity constraints are binding on the decision to become and stay self-employed. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.
James R. Barth - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Abnormal returns of thrift versus non-thrift IPOs
Journal of Economics and Finance, 1999Co-Authors: James R. Barth, Daniel E. Page, John S. JaheraAbstract:This paper examines the issue of underpricing for converting thrift institutions. Evidence has found this underpricing to be pervasive in the mutual-to-stock thrift conversion process. The issue is of importance given the debate over whether any Windfall Gains should accrue to depositors, managers, or taxpayers. An event study is conducted to determine if there is a significant difference between the initial returns of thrift and non-thrift IPOs. Our overall results indicate that a significant difference does exist.
-
Abnormal returns of thrift versus non-thrift IPOs
Journal of Economics and Finance, 1999Co-Authors: James R. Barth, Daniel E. Page, John S. JaheraAbstract:This paper examines the issue of underpricing for converting thrift institutions. Evidence has found this underpricing to be pervasive in the mutual-to-stock thrift conversion process. The issue is of importance given the debate over whether any Windfall Gains should accrue to depositors, managers, or taxpayers. An event study is conducted to determine if there is a significant difference between the initial returns of thrift and non-thrift IPOs. Our overall results indicate that a significant difference does exist. Copyright Springer 1999
