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Akimasa Hirata - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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influence of population density temperature and Absolute Humidity on spread and decay durations of covid 19 a comparative study of scenarios in china england germany and japan
One Health, 2021Co-Authors: Yinliang Diao, Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Jose Gomeztames, Daisuke Anzai, Akimasa HirataAbstract:Abstract In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, Absolute Humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p
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correlation between covid 19 morbidity and mortality rates in japan and local population density temperature and Absolute Humidity
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and Absolute Humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and Absolute Humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum Absolute Humidity (p-value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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covid 19 morbidity and mortality rates in japan are correlated with local population density temperature and Absolute Humidity
arXiv: Populations and Evolution, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and Absolute Humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and Absolute Humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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influence of Absolute Humidity temperature and population density on covid 19 spread and decay durations multi prefecture study in japan
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Jose Gomeztames, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2 = 0.39 (p 0.36, p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum Absolute Humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2 = 0.53, p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.
Essam A Rashed - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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influence of population density temperature and Absolute Humidity on spread and decay durations of covid 19 a comparative study of scenarios in china england germany and japan
One Health, 2021Co-Authors: Yinliang Diao, Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Jose Gomeztames, Daisuke Anzai, Akimasa HirataAbstract:Abstract In this study, we analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in several cities of China, England, Germany, and Japan, where the first wave has undergone decay. Differences in medical and health insurance systems, as well as in regional policies incommoded the comparison of the spread and decay in different cities and countries. The spread and decay durations in the cities of the four studied countries were reordered and calculated based on an asymmetric bell-shaped model. We acquired the values of the ambient temperature, Absolute Humidity, and population density to perform multivariable analysis. We found a significant correlation (p
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correlation between covid 19 morbidity and mortality rates in japan and local population density temperature and Absolute Humidity
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed, excluding cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. The correlations between the morbidity and mortality rates and population density were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). In addition, the percentage of elderly population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and Absolute Humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates. Lower morbidity and mortality rates were observed for higher temperature and Absolute Humidity. Multivariate linear regression considering these factors showed that the adjusted determination coefficient for the confirmed cases was 0.693 in terms of population density, elderly percentage, and maximum Absolute Humidity (p-value < 0.01). These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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covid 19 morbidity and mortality rates in japan are correlated with local population density temperature and Absolute Humidity
arXiv: Populations and Evolution, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and Absolute Humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and Absolute Humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak.
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influence of Absolute Humidity temperature and population density on covid 19 spread and decay durations multi prefecture study in japan
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020Co-Authors: Sachiko Kodera, Essam A Rashed, Jose Gomeztames, Akimasa HirataAbstract:This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2 = 0.39 (p 0.36, p < 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum Absolute Humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2 = 0.53, p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak.
Jeffrey Shaman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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indoor temperature and Humidity in new york city apartments during winter
Science of The Total Environment, 2017Co-Authors: Ashlinn Quinn, Jeffrey ShamanAbstract:Abstract Background Concerns about indoor residential Humidity have largely centered on dampness prevention. Overly dry air, however, may favor the survival of some viruses and hence respiratory infections. Many residents employ portable humidifiers to humidify their home environment, yet the effect of these humidifiers on indoor Humidity is not known. Methods We monitored indoor temperature and Humidity in 34 apartments in New York City during winter 2014–2015. We combined information from the monitors with surveyed information on building, household, and apartment-level factors and with information on household humidifier use. Using multilevel regression models, we investigated the role of these factors on indoor Absolute Humidity levels during the winter. Results Mean indoor vapor pressure (a measure of Absolute Humidity) was 6.7 mb in the surveyed homes during the winter season. Ownership of a humidifier was not associated with higher indoor Humidity levels; however, larger building size (above 100 units) was significantly associated with lower Humidity. The presence of a radiator heating system was non-significantly associated with higher Humidity. Conclusions The wintertime indoor environment in this sample of New York City apartments is dry. Future research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of portable humidifiers in the home and to clarify the relationship between dry indoor air and the transmission of viral infections.
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predictors of indoor Absolute Humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2013Co-Authors: Tyler H Koep, Chris Pierret, Dale A Krageschmidt, Kevin L Neff, Felicity Enders, Jeffrey Shaman, Stephen C. Ekker, Marc Lipsitch, Charles W HuskinsAbstract:Background: Low Absolute Humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods: Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, Humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results: AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an Absolute value of 30% during winter months. Conclusions: During winter, indoor AH in non-humidified grade schools varies substantially and often to levels that are very low. Indoor results are predicted by outdoor AH over a season and CO2 levels (which likely reflects human activity) during individual school days. Classroom humidification may be a feasible approach to increase indoor AH to levels that may decrease influenza virus survival and transmission.
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Absolute Humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2011Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Edward Goldstein, Marc LipsitchAbstract:Experimental and epidemiologic evidence indicates that variations of Absolute Humidity account for the onset and seasonal cycle of epidemic influenza in temperate regions. A role for Absolute Humidity in the transmission of pandemic influenza, such as 2009 A/H1N1, has yet to be demonstrated and, indeed, outbreaks of pandemic influenza during more humid spring, summer, and autumn months might appear to constitute evidence against an effect of Humidity. However, here the authors show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in Absolute Humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions, as well as wintertime transmission of epidemic influenza. Indeed, Absolute Humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of Absolute Humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility, and changes in population-mixing and contact rates. disease outbreaks; disease susceptibility; disease transmission, infectious; Humidity; influenza, human
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Correction: Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States.
PLoS Biology, 2010Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, Marc LipsitchAbstract:The authors declare the following competing interest, which should have been declared at the time of publication. M.L. discloses consulting income from the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry (Outcome Sciences, funded in part by Roche) and from Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics. The other authors declare no competing interests.
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Absolute Humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental united states
PLOS Biology, 2010Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, Marc LipsitchAbstract:Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that Absolute Humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low Absolute Humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed Absolute Humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by Absolute Humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that Absolute Humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
Marc Lipsitch - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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predictors of indoor Absolute Humidity and estimated effects on influenza virus survival in grade schools
BMC Infectious Diseases, 2013Co-Authors: Tyler H Koep, Chris Pierret, Dale A Krageschmidt, Kevin L Neff, Felicity Enders, Jeffrey Shaman, Stephen C. Ekker, Marc Lipsitch, Charles W HuskinsAbstract:Background: Low Absolute Humidity (AH) has been associated with increased influenza virus survival and transmissibility and the onset of seasonal influenza outbreaks. Humidification of indoor environments may mitigate viral transmission and may be an important control strategy, particularly in schools where viral transmission is common and contributes to the spread of influenza in communities. However, the variability and predictors of AH in the indoor school environment and the feasibility of classroom humidification to levels that could decrease viral survival have not been studied. Methods: Automated sensors were used to measure temperature, Humidity and CO2 levels in two Minnesota grade schools without central humidification during two successive winters. Outdoor AH measurements were derived from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Variability in indoor AH within classrooms, between classrooms in the same school, and between schools was assessed using concordance correlation coefficients (CCC). Predictors of indoor AH were examined using time-series Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models. Classroom humidifiers were used when school was not in session to assess the feasibility of increasing indoor AH to levels associated with decreased influenza virus survival, as projected from previously published animal experiments. Results: AH varied little within classrooms (CCC >0.90) but was more variable between classrooms in the same school (CCC 0.81 for School 1, 0.88 for School 2) and between schools (CCC 0.81). Indoor AH varied widely during the winter (range 2.60 to 10.34 millibars [mb]) and was strongly associated with changes in outdoor AH (p < 0.001). Changes in indoor AH on school weekdays were strongly associated with CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Over 4 hours, classroom humidifiers increased indoor AH by 4 mb, an increase sufficient to decrease projected 1-hour virus survival by an Absolute value of 30% during winter months. Conclusions: During winter, indoor AH in non-humidified grade schools varies substantially and often to levels that are very low. Indoor results are predicted by outdoor AH over a season and CO2 levels (which likely reflects human activity) during individual school days. Classroom humidification may be a feasible approach to increase indoor AH to levels that may decrease influenza virus survival and transmission.
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Absolute Humidity and pandemic versus epidemic influenza
American Journal of Epidemiology, 2011Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Edward Goldstein, Marc LipsitchAbstract:Experimental and epidemiologic evidence indicates that variations of Absolute Humidity account for the onset and seasonal cycle of epidemic influenza in temperate regions. A role for Absolute Humidity in the transmission of pandemic influenza, such as 2009 A/H1N1, has yet to be demonstrated and, indeed, outbreaks of pandemic influenza during more humid spring, summer, and autumn months might appear to constitute evidence against an effect of Humidity. However, here the authors show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in Absolute Humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions, as well as wintertime transmission of epidemic influenza. Indeed, Absolute Humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of Absolute Humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility, and changes in population-mixing and contact rates. disease outbreaks; disease susceptibility; disease transmission, infectious; Humidity; influenza, human
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Correction: Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States.
PLoS Biology, 2010Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, Marc LipsitchAbstract:The authors declare the following competing interest, which should have been declared at the time of publication. M.L. discloses consulting income from the Avian/Pandemic Flu Registry (Outcome Sciences, funded in part by Roche) and from Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics. The other authors declare no competing interests.
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Absolute Humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental united states
PLOS Biology, 2010Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. Grenfell, Marc LipsitchAbstract:Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that Absolute Humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low Absolute Humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed Absolute Humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by Absolute Humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that Absolute Humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
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Absolute Humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental us
PLOS Currents, 2009Co-Authors: Jeffrey Shaman, Marc Lipsitch, Virginia E. Pitzer, Cécile Viboud, Bryan T. GrenfellAbstract:Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that Absolute Humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low Absolute Humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed Absolute Humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by Absolute Humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that Absolute Humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
Douglas W. Dockery - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the relationship between indoor and outdoor temperature apparent temperature relative Humidity and Absolute Humidity
Indoor Air, 2014Co-Authors: Jennifer Nguyen, Joel Schwartz, Douglas W. DockeryAbstract:Many studies report an association between outdoor ambient weather and health. Outdoor conditions may be a poor indicator of personal exposure because people spend most of their time indoors. Few studies have examined how indoor conditions relate to outdoor ambient weather. The average indoor temperature, apparent temperature, relative Humidity (RH), and Absolute Humidity (AH) measured in 16 homes in Greater Boston, Massachusetts, from May 2011 to April 2012 was compared to measurements taken at Boston Logan airport. The relationship between indoor and outdoor temperatures is nonlinear. At warmer outdoor temperatures, there is a strong correlation between indoor and outdoor temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient, r = 0.91, slope, β = 0.41), but at cooler temperatures, the association is weak (r = 0.40, β = 0.04). Results were similar for outdoor apparent temperature. The relationships were linear for RH and AH. The correlation for RH was modest (r = 0.55, β = 0.39). Absolute Humidity exhibited the strongest indoor-to-outdoor correlation (r = 0.96, β = 0.69). Indoor and outdoor temperatures correlate well only at warmer outdoor temperatures. Outdoor RH is a poor indicator of indoor RH, while indoor AH has a strong correlation with outdoor AH year-round.
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the relationship between indoor and outdoor temperature apparent temperature relative Humidity and Absolute Humidity
ISEE Conference Abstracts, 2013Co-Authors: Jennifer Nguyen, Joel Schwartz, Douglas W. DockeryAbstract:Background Many studies report an association between outdoor ambient weather and health. Outdoor conditions may be a poor indicator of personal exposure because people spend most of their time ind...
