The Experts below are selected from a list of 40275 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Erik Thorbecke - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a dual dual cge model of an archetype African Economy
2003Co-Authors: David Stifel, Erik ThorbeckeAbstract:We build a CGE model of an archetype African Economy to simulate the welfare effects of trade liberalization specifically on poverty. The Economy is modeled following a dual-dual framework (Thorbecke, 1993, 1994, 1997) that is characteristic of the structure of a developing country in its middle development phase. This provides the basis for analyzing the distribution of modern and informal sector activities in both rural and urban areas. The interdependence of these four broadly defined sectors is modeled not only in terms of production and consumption decisions within them, but also in terms of labor migration among them, adding a richness which is missing in the standard CGE models. Poverty analysis is integrated in the CGE methodology by endogenizing both intra-group income distributions and the nominal poverty line. The application of standard poverty measures to the pre- and post simulation poverty lines and distributions of income for each socio-economic group, allows the assessment of policy-induced changes on group specific poverty and national poverty. Simulations with a model calibrated from a social accounting matrix (SAM) of a prototype African Economy, show that an important contribution of the dual-dual model vis-a-vis poverty analysis in a CGE model is the inter-group migration it incorporates. Changes in the population shares of the socio-economic groups that follow population shifts have important implications for the magnitudes of changes in national poverty.
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a dual dual cge model of an archetype African Economy trade reform migration and poverty
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2003Co-Authors: David Stifel, Erik ThorbeckeAbstract:Abstract We build a CGE model of an archetype African Economy to simulate the welfare effects of trade liberalization specifically on poverty. The Economy is modeled following a dual-dual framework (Thorbecke, 1993, 1994, 1997) that is characteristic of the structure of a developing country in its middle development phase. This provides the basis for analyzing the distribution of modern and informal sector activities in both rural and urban areas. The interdependence of these four broadly defined sectors is modeled not only in terms of production and consumption decisions within them, but also in terms of labor migration among them, adding a richness which is missing in the standard CGE models. Poverty analysis is integrated in the CGE methodology by endogenizing both intra-group income distributions and the nominal poverty line. The application of standard poverty measures to the pre- and post-simulation poverty lines and distributions of income for each socio-economic group, allows the assessment of policy-induced changes on group specific poverty and national poverty. Simulations with a model calibrated from a social accounting matrix (SAM) of a prototype African Economy, show that an important contribution of the dual-dual model vis-a-vis poverty analysis in a CGE model is the inter-group migration it incorporates. Changes in the population shares of the socio-economic groups that follow population shifts have important implications for the magnitudes of changes in national poverty.
David Stifel - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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a dual dual cge model of an archetype African Economy
2003Co-Authors: David Stifel, Erik ThorbeckeAbstract:We build a CGE model of an archetype African Economy to simulate the welfare effects of trade liberalization specifically on poverty. The Economy is modeled following a dual-dual framework (Thorbecke, 1993, 1994, 1997) that is characteristic of the structure of a developing country in its middle development phase. This provides the basis for analyzing the distribution of modern and informal sector activities in both rural and urban areas. The interdependence of these four broadly defined sectors is modeled not only in terms of production and consumption decisions within them, but also in terms of labor migration among them, adding a richness which is missing in the standard CGE models. Poverty analysis is integrated in the CGE methodology by endogenizing both intra-group income distributions and the nominal poverty line. The application of standard poverty measures to the pre- and post simulation poverty lines and distributions of income for each socio-economic group, allows the assessment of policy-induced changes on group specific poverty and national poverty. Simulations with a model calibrated from a social accounting matrix (SAM) of a prototype African Economy, show that an important contribution of the dual-dual model vis-a-vis poverty analysis in a CGE model is the inter-group migration it incorporates. Changes in the population shares of the socio-economic groups that follow population shifts have important implications for the magnitudes of changes in national poverty.
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a dual dual cge model of an archetype African Economy trade reform migration and poverty
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2003Co-Authors: David Stifel, Erik ThorbeckeAbstract:Abstract We build a CGE model of an archetype African Economy to simulate the welfare effects of trade liberalization specifically on poverty. The Economy is modeled following a dual-dual framework (Thorbecke, 1993, 1994, 1997) that is characteristic of the structure of a developing country in its middle development phase. This provides the basis for analyzing the distribution of modern and informal sector activities in both rural and urban areas. The interdependence of these four broadly defined sectors is modeled not only in terms of production and consumption decisions within them, but also in terms of labor migration among them, adding a richness which is missing in the standard CGE models. Poverty analysis is integrated in the CGE methodology by endogenizing both intra-group income distributions and the nominal poverty line. The application of standard poverty measures to the pre- and post-simulation poverty lines and distributions of income for each socio-economic group, allows the assessment of policy-induced changes on group specific poverty and national poverty. Simulations with a model calibrated from a social accounting matrix (SAM) of a prototype African Economy, show that an important contribution of the dual-dual model vis-a-vis poverty analysis in a CGE model is the inter-group migration it incorporates. Changes in the population shares of the socio-economic groups that follow population shifts have important implications for the magnitudes of changes in national poverty.
Daniel L Rubinfeld - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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federal institutions and the democratic transition learning from south africa
Journal of Law Economics & Organization, 2012Co-Authors: Robert P Inman, Daniel L RubinfeldAbstract:We present a model of a peaceful transition from autocracy to democracy using federal governance as a constitutional means to protect the economic interests of the once ruling elite. Under "democratic federalism," the constitution creates an annual policy game where the new majority and the elite each control one policy instrument of importance to the other. The game has a stable stationary equilibrium that the elite may prefer to autocratic rule. We apply our analysis to South Africa's transition from white, elite rule under apartheid to a multi-racial democracy. We calibrate our model to the South African Economy at the time of the transition. Stable democratic equilibria exist for plausible estimates of redistributive preferences and rate of time preference ("impatience") of the new majority during the early years of the new democracy. The future of the democratic federal bargain is less certain under the new populist presidency of Jacob Zuma (JEL H11, H77, P48). The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Yale University. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.
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federal institutions and the democratic transition learning from south africa
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008Co-Authors: Robert P Inman, Daniel L RubinfeldAbstract:We present a model of a peaceful transition from autocracy to democracy using federal governance as a constitutional means to protect the economic interests of the once ruling elite. Under "democratic federalism" the constitution creates an annual policy game where the new majority and the elite each control one policy instrument of importance to the other. The game has a stable, stationary equilibrium that the elite may prefer to autocratic rule. We apply our analysis to South Africa's transition from white, elite rule under apartheid to a multi-racial democracy. We calibrate our model to the South African Economy at the time of the transition. Stable democratic equilibria exist for plausible estimates of redistributive preferences and rate of time preference ('impatience') of the new majority during the early years of the new democracy. The future of the democratic federal bargain is less certain under the new populist presidency of Jacob Zuma.
Federico Sturzenegger - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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identifying aggregate supply and demand shocks in south africa
Journal of African Economies, 2008Co-Authors: Stan Du Plessis, Ben Smit, Federico SturzeneggerAbstract:This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African Economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2--2006Q4 and 1983Q4--2006Q4. The identified (structural) shocks were used in a historical decomposition to split output into a measure of potential output (resulting from the evolution of supply shocks) and a measure of the business cycle (the gap between actual and potential output). This measure of potential output suggests a significant decline relative to trend in the years prior to the political transition of 1994 and a swift reversal thereafter. The paper presents evidence from three sources to support its identification of aggregate supply and demand shocks. These sources are the following: theory consistent impulse response functions; a close match between the implied measure of the business cycle and independent information about the South African business cycle and a demonstration of the close match between the identified series of aggregate supply shocks and important historical events in the decades prior to and following 1994 that have been identified by economic historians as important shocks to the South African Economy. Copyright 2008 The author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Centre for the Study of African Economies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
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Identifying Aggregate Supply and Demand Shocks in South Africa
Journal of African Economies, 2008Co-Authors: Stan Du Plessis, Ben Smit, Federico SturzeneggerAbstract:This paper uses a structural VAR methodology to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks to real output for the South African Economy. Demand shocks, in turn, are separated into fiscal and monetary shocks. The model is estimated with quarterly data over two overlapping samples: 1960Q2-2006Q4 and 1983Q4-2006Q4. The identified (structural) shocks were used in a historical decomposition to split output into a measure of potential output (resulting from the evolution of supply shocks) and a measure of the business cycle (the gap between actual and potential output). This measure of potential output suggests a significant decline relative to trend in the years prior to the political transition of 1994 and a swift reversal thereafter. The paper presents evidence from three sources to support its identification of aggregate supply and demand shocks. These sources are the following: theory consistent impulse response functions; a close match between the implied measure of the business cycle and independent information about the South African business cycle; and a demonstration of the close match between the identified series of aggregate supply shocks and important historical events in the decades prior to and following 1994 that have been identified by economic historians as important shocks to the South African Economy.
Peterson K Ozili - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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covid 19 in africa socio economic impact policy response and opportunities
Social Science Research Network, 2020Co-Authors: Peterson K OziliAbstract:This study analyses the COVID-19 situation in Africa and discuss the socioeconomic impact, policy response and opportunities. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic which has affected the global Economy has also affected the African Economy through spillovers to African countries. Many African countries have taken bold quarantine and lockdown measures to control the spread of COVID-19 although this has come at a cost such as the collapse of health systems and a painful economic crisis or recession. A coordinated and bold response by African authorities is needed. First, public funds should be provided to improve the capacity of health systems in African countries. Second, financial support should be provided to individuals, entrepreneurs and corporations to help them cope with the adverse effect of the coronavirus crisis. Third, employers should be granted incentives to preserve employment during the crisis to avoid mass layoff of workers. Four, the Central bank in African countries should provide liquidity and credit support as well as asset purchase programs to prevent credit and liquidity crunch in domestic financial markets. Finally, social authorities in African countries should ensure that people in small communities have access to effective communication systems to enhance remote social interaction between community members, family and friends during the crisis.