The Experts below are selected from a list of 10785 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Shane D Johnson - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
examining the relationship between road structure and Burglary risk via quantitative network analysis
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2015Co-Authors: Toby Davies, Shane D JohnsonAbstract:Objectives To test the hypothesis that the spatial distribution of residential Burglary is shaped by the configuration of the street network, as predicted by, for example, crime pattern theory. In particular, the study examines whether Burglary risk is higher on street segments with higher usage potential.
-
examining the relationship between road structure and Burglary risk via quantitative network analysis
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2015Co-Authors: Toby Davies, Shane D JohnsonAbstract:To test the hypothesis that the spatial distribution of residential Burglary is shaped by the configuration of the street network, as predicted by, for example, crime pattern theory. In particular, the study examines whether Burglary risk is higher on street segments with higher usage potential. Residential Burglary data for Birmingham (UK) are examined at the street segment level using a hierarchical linear model. Estimates of the usage of street segments are derived from the graph theoretical metric of betweenness, which measures how frequently segments feature in the shortest paths (those most likely to be used) through the network. Several variants of betweenness are considered. The geometry of street segments is also incorporated—via a measure of their linearity—as are several socio-demographic factors. As anticipated by theory, the measure of betweenness was found to be a highly-significant predictor of the Burglary victimization count at the street segment level for all but one of the variants considered. The non-significant result was found for the most localized measure of betweenness considered. More linear streets were generally found to be at lower risk of victimization. Betweenness offers a more granular and objective means of measuring the street network than categorical classifications previously used, and its meaning links more directly to theory. The results provide support for crime pattern theory, suggesting a higher risk of Burglary for streets with more potential usage. The apparent negative effect of linearity suggests the need for further research into the visual component of target choice, and the role of guardianship.
Wim Bernasco - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Variation in Residential Burglary with the Integrated Laplace Approximation Framework: Effects of Crime Generators, Street Networks, and Prior Crimes
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2020Co-Authors: Maria Mahfoud, Wim Bernasco, Sandjai Bhulai, Rob MeiAbstract:Objectives We investigate the spatio-temporal variation of monthly residential Burglary frequencies across neighborhoods as a function of crime generators, street network features and temporally and spatially lagged Burglary frequencies. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the model as a forecasting tool. Methods We analyze 48 months of police-recorded residential burglaries across 20 neighborhoods in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in combination with data on the locations of urban facilities (crime generators), frequencies of other crime types, and street network data. We apply the Integrated Laplace Approximation method, a Bayesian forecasting framework that is less computationally demanding than prior frameworks. Results The local number of retail stores, the number of street robberies perpetrated and the closeness of the local street network are positively related to residential Burglary. Inclusion of a general spatio-temporal interaction component significantly improves forecasting performance, but inclusion of spatial proximity or temporal recency components does not. Discussion Our findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of Burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential Burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding that recency and proximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
-
forecasting spatio temporal variation in residential Burglary with the integrated laplace approximation framework effects of crime generators street networks and prior crimes
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2020Co-Authors: Maria Mahfoud, Wim Bernasco, Sandjai Bhulai, Rob Van Der MeiAbstract:We investigate the spatio-temporal variation of monthly residential Burglary frequencies across neighborhoods as a function of crime generators, street network features and temporally and spatially lagged Burglary frequencies. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the model as a forecasting tool. We analyze 48 months of police-recorded residential burglaries across 20 neighborhoods in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in combination with data on the locations of urban facilities (crime generators), frequencies of other crime types, and street network data. We apply the Integrated Laplace Approximation method, a Bayesian forecasting framework that is less computationally demanding than prior frameworks. The local number of retail stores, the number of street robberies perpetrated and the closeness of the local street network are positively related to residential Burglary. Inclusion of a general spatio-temporal interaction component significantly improves forecasting performance, but inclusion of spatial proximity or temporal recency components does not. Our findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of Burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential Burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding that recency and proximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
-
them again same offender involvement in repeat and near repeat burglaries
European Journal of Criminology, 2008Co-Authors: Wim BernascoAbstract:Burglary victimization is associated with a temporary elevated risk of future victimization for the same property and nearby properties. Previous research suggests that often the initial and subseq...
-
how do residential burglars select target areas a new approach to the analysis of criminal location choice
British Journal of Criminology, 2005Co-Authors: Wim Bernasco, Paul NieuwbeertaAbstract:This paper introduces the discrete spatial choice approach to the study of criminal target choice. The approach is used to assess whether residential burglars are attracted to target areas that are affluent, accessible, and poorly guarded. In addition, the importance of these criteria is postulated to vary across burglars. The theory is tested using data on 548 residential burglaries, committed by 290 burglars from the city of The Hague, the Netherlands. The likelihood of a neighbourhood’s being selected for Burglary is heightened by its ethnic heterogeneity, its percentage of single-family dwellings, and its proximity to where the offender lives. The results and prospects of the discrete spatial choice approach for spatial target selection research are discussed. The problem of criminal location choice is a classical one in criminology. It pertains to the descriptive question of where offenders commit their offences, and to the explanatory question of why they commit them there, rather than somewhere else. In the literature, answers to the latter question have involved two general notions that have usually been dealt with separately. The first is the notion that for a crime to occur, a motivated offender must find a suitable target, in the absence of a capable guardian (Cohen and Felson 1979). The second is the notion that crimes tend to occur close to where the offender lives (Baldwin and Bottoms 1976: 78–98; Wiles and Costello 2000; Ratcliffe 2003). This paper combines these two notions, in an attempt to answer the question of how residential burglars select their target areas. For that purpose, we introduce the discrete spatial choice approach. This approach analyses target selection as being influenced by target characteristics and by offender characteristics, simultaneously. We argue that the discrete spatial choice approach is able to integrate previous findings in this field of inquiry, and is a useful theoretical and methodological tool for research in criminal target choice. In the next section, we present a review of the literature on target selection by burglars. Subsequently, we give an overview of earlier methods in the study of criminal location choice, and introduce the discrete spatial choice approach and the closely related conditional logit model. The approach is then applied to residential Burglary in the city of The Hague, the Netherlands, using data from police records. The paper concludes with a summary of the main results, and a discussion of the potential and the pitfalls of the discrete spatial choice approach for studying criminal location choice. * Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR), PO Box 792, NL-2300 AT Leiden, The Netherlands, email: bernasco@nscr.nl or nieuwbeerta@nscr.nl, telephone: +31 71 5278527. The Haaglanden Police Force provided the crime data used in this study. We acknowledge the contributions of Rieny Albers, Hanneke van Essen, Floor Luykx (NSCR), Astrid Patty and Peter Versteegh (Haaglanden Police Force) to the collection and processing of data. We thank Richard Block, Henk Elffers, Jan de Keijser, Jasper van der Kemp and Peter van Koppen and two anonymous reviewers for constructive comments on a previous version.
Maria Mahfoud - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
forecasting spatio temporal variation in residential Burglary with the integrated laplace approximation framework effects of crime generators street networks and prior crimes
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2020Co-Authors: Maria Mahfoud, Wim Bernasco, Sandjai Bhulai, Rob Van Der MeiAbstract:We investigate the spatio-temporal variation of monthly residential Burglary frequencies across neighborhoods as a function of crime generators, street network features and temporally and spatially lagged Burglary frequencies. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the model as a forecasting tool. We analyze 48 months of police-recorded residential burglaries across 20 neighborhoods in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in combination with data on the locations of urban facilities (crime generators), frequencies of other crime types, and street network data. We apply the Integrated Laplace Approximation method, a Bayesian forecasting framework that is less computationally demanding than prior frameworks. The local number of retail stores, the number of street robberies perpetrated and the closeness of the local street network are positively related to residential Burglary. Inclusion of a general spatio-temporal interaction component significantly improves forecasting performance, but inclusion of spatial proximity or temporal recency components does not. Our findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of Burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential Burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding that recency and proximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
-
Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Variation in Residential Burglary with the Integrated Laplace Approximation Framework: Effects of Crime Generators, Street Networks, and Prior Crimes
Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2020Co-Authors: Maria Mahfoud, Wim Bernasco, Sandjai Bhulai, Rob MeiAbstract:Objectives We investigate the spatio-temporal variation of monthly residential Burglary frequencies across neighborhoods as a function of crime generators, street network features and temporally and spatially lagged Burglary frequencies. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the model as a forecasting tool. Methods We analyze 48 months of police-recorded residential burglaries across 20 neighborhoods in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, in combination with data on the locations of urban facilities (crime generators), frequencies of other crime types, and street network data. We apply the Integrated Laplace Approximation method, a Bayesian forecasting framework that is less computationally demanding than prior frameworks. Results The local number of retail stores, the number of street robberies perpetrated and the closeness of the local street network are positively related to residential Burglary. Inclusion of a general spatio-temporal interaction component significantly improves forecasting performance, but inclusion of spatial proximity or temporal recency components does not. Discussion Our findings on crime generators and street network characteristics support evidence in the literature on environmental correlates of Burglary. The significance of spatio-temporal interaction indicates that residential Burglary is spatio-temporally concentrated. Our finding that recency and proximity of prior burglaries do not contribute to the performance of the forecast, probably indicates that relevant spatio-temporal interaction is limited to fine-grained spatial and temporal units of analysis, such as days and street blocks.
Ken Pease - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Offender as Forager? A Direct Test of the Boost Account of Victimization
J QUANT CRIMINOL, 2009Co-Authors: Ken PeaseAbstract:Recent research has demonstrated that Burglary clusters in space and time, resulting in temporal changes in crime hotspot patterns. Offender foraging behavior would yield the observed pattern. The offender as forager hypothesis is tested by analyzing patterns in two types of acquisitive crime, Burglary and theft from motor vehicle (TFMV). Using a technique developed to detect disease contagion confirms that both crime types cluster in space and time as predicted, but that the space-time clustering of Burglary is generally independent of that for TFMV. Police detections indicate that crimes of the same type occurring closest to each other in space and time are those most likely to be cleared to the same offender(s), as predicted. The implications of the findings for crime forecasting and crime linkage are discussed.
-
Burglary victimization in england and wales the united states and the netherlands a cross national comparative test of routine activities and lifestyle theories
Social Science Research Network, 2004Co-Authors: Andromachi Tseloni, Karin Wittebrood, Graham Farrell, Ken PeaseAbstract:This study examines factors relating to Burglary incidence in England and Wales, the United States, and the Netherlands. Negative binomial regression models are developed based on routine activities theory. Data are drawn from national victimization surveys of about the same time: the 1994 British Crime Survey, the 1994 National Crime Victimisation Survey, and the 1993 Police Monitor, respectively. Relative to the two European countries, US households have more idiosyncratic patterns of Burglary victimization. Despite differences across the three data sets, several similar effects emerge of variables tapping lifestyle characteristics on Burglary victimization. Four variables had significant effects in the same direction in two or more countries where the third country showed a non-significant effect in the same direction. These were age, lone parent household status, urbanization, and the presence of security measures in the home. Some variables had significant effects in opposite directions according to country: rented accommodation was associated with higher Burglary rates in the UK but lower rates in the Netherlands; household affluence was linked with higher rates of Burglary in the UK and lower rates in the United States.
-
Burglary victimization in england and wales the united states and the netherlands a cross national comparative test of routine activities and lifestyle theories
British Journal of Criminology, 2004Co-Authors: Andromachi Tseloni, Karin Wittebrood, Graham Farrell, Ken PeaseAbstract:This study examines factors relating to Burglary incidence in England and Wales, the United States, and the Netherlands. Negative binomial regression models are developed based on routine activities theory. Data are drawn from national victimization surveys of about the same time: the 1994 British Crime Survey, the 1994 National Crime Victimisation Survey, and the 1993 Police Monitor, respectively. Relative to the two European countries, US households have more idiosyncratic patterns of Burglary victimization. Despite differences across the three data sets, several similar effects emerge of variables tapping lifestyle characteristics on Burglary victimization. Four variables had significant effects in the same direction in two or more countries where the third country showed a non-significant effect in the same direction. These were age, lone parent household status, urbanization, and the presence of security measures in the home. Some variables had significant effects in opposite directions according to country: rented accommodation was associated with higher Burglary rates in the UK but lower rates in the Netherlands; household affluence was linked with higher rates of Burglary in the UK and lower rates in the United States. The present study seeks to contribute to crime research in two main areas. The first contribution is to substantive knowledge about crime. The contribution derives from an examination of three main research questions: • Do indicators derived from routine activity and lifestyle theory affect household Burglary incidence similarly across three countries? • If they do, which are the most consistent? • What are the potential implications of the findings? The second hoped-for contribution is to methodology, though this is necessarily also linked to the area of substantive knowledge. There are, to the writers’ knowledge, no previous cross-national studies which use comparative negative binomial models to examine routine activity and lifestyle theories. The negative binomial model has two main advantages for present purposes. First, it accounts for the role of repeat victimization in the composition of crime. Second, it allows an examination of the extent of unexplained heterogeneity between households in different countries (this is explained more fully below). Further, instead of concentrating on relatively few variables as in some previous studies, all available indicators of routine activities and lifestyle are
Roosevelt Wright - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
the influence of crack cocaine on robbery Burglary and homicide rates a cross city longitudinal analysis
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 1998Co-Authors: Eric P Baumer, Janet L Lauritsen, Richard Rosenfeld, Roosevelt WrightAbstract:After tracking one another closely for decades, the U.S. robbery rate increased and the Burglary rate declined in the late 1980s. The authors investigate the impact of crack on this divergence using a two-stage hierarchical linear model that decomposes between-and within-city variation in crime rates for 142 cities. Given its prominence in discussions of crack and criminal violence, homicide offending is also examined. Net of other influences, cities with higher levels of crack use experienced larger increases in robbery and decreases in Burglary. Cities with greater levels of crack had higher homicide rates but did not show more rapid increases in these rates than other cities. The results suggest that the emergence and proliferation of crack shifted the balance of urban offending opportunities and rewards from Burglary to robbery.
-
criminal expertise and offender decision making an experimental study of the target selection process in residential Burglary
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 1995Co-Authors: Roosevelt Wright, Robert H Logie, Scott H DeckerAbstract:This article reports the results of an experiment designed to explore (a) the environmental cues used by active residential burglars in choosing targets, and (b) the extent to which such offenders possess specialized cognitive abilities (commonly referred to as expertise) that might facilitate this decision-making process. Forty-seven active residential burglars and a matched group of 34 nonoffenders were shown photographs of houses and asked whether the dwellings would be attractive or otherwise to burglars. Subsequently, subjects were given a surprise recognition test where, in some photographs, physical features of the setting had been changed. Results revealed that active residential burglars were significantly better than nonoffenders at recognizing certain “Burglary relevant” environmental changes. Moreover, offenders differed from controls in the mix of environmental cues they employed when selecting targets. These results argue for the importance of acquired expertise in explanations of offender d...
