The Experts below are selected from a list of 10044 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Laurence J Kotlikoff - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the role of immigration in dealing with the developed world s demographic transition
Finanzarchiv, 2004Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:This paper and its companion study, Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff (2004), develop a three-region dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze general and skill-specific immigration policy during the demographic transition. The three regions are the U.S., Japan, and the EU. Immigration is often offered as a solution to the remarkable again underway in the developed world. Absent an immediate and dramatic change in immigration, dependency ratios will roughly double over the next three decades placing fiscal institutions, in particular, and economies, in general, under enormous stress. Can immigration alleviate these stresses? The answer is unclear bacause a number of offsetting factors are at play. First, increased immigration raises the size of the labor force, but also lowers real wages. Hence, the increase in the taxable wage base due to immigration will be less than might otherwise be expected. Second, immigrants arrive with some Capital and accumulate more Capital as they age. This raises labor productivity and both payroll and income tax bases. Third, immigrants, like natives, require public goods and become eligible for government welfare, health care, and pension benefits. Fiscally speaking, how much one “earns” from a new immigrant depends on the immigant’s skill level, which, in turn, determines the immigrant’s level of earnings. The reason is that taxes and transfer payments are, in general, collected and distributed on a progressive basis. Consequently, high-skilled immigrants deliver a larger bang for the buck when it comes to paying net taxes (taxes paid net of transfer payments received). Our model confirms this point. Nonetheless, its findings, even with respect to high-skilled immigration, which we investigate in detail in this paper, are not pretty. It shows that a significant expansion of immigration, whether across all skill groups or among particular skill groups, will do remarkably little to alter the major Capital Shortage, tax hikes, and reductions in real wages that can be expected along the demographic transition.
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the developed world s demographic transition the roles of Capital flows immigration and policy
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:The developed word stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions the U.S. Japan which exchange goods and Capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. Other things equal, one would expect the aging of the developed economies to increase Capital per worker as the number of suppliers of Capital (the old) rises relative to the number of suppliers of labor (the young). But given the need to pay the elderly their benefits, other things are far from equal. According to our simulations, the tax hikes needed to finance benefits along the demographic transition path generate a major Capital Shortage that lowers real wages by 19 percent and raises real interest rates by over 400 basis points. Hence, far from mitigating the developed world's fiscal problems, macroeconomic feedback effects make matters significantly worse. The simulations also show that increased immigration does very little to mitigate the fiscal stresses facing the developed world. On the other hand, there are policies that can materially improve the developed world's long-term prospects. The one examined here is closing down, at the margin, existing government pension systems and using consumption taxes to pay off those program's accrued liabilities. This policy could be coupled with the establishment of a fully funded mandatory individual saving system. According to our simulations, this policy would impose modest welfare losses on current generations, but generate enormous welfare gains for future generations. Future Europeans and Japanese benefit the most. Their net wages almost triple, and their welfare levels double compared with the no-reform scenario.
Hans Fehr - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the role of immigration in dealing with the developed world s demographic transition
Finanzarchiv, 2004Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:This paper and its companion study, Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff (2004), develop a three-region dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze general and skill-specific immigration policy during the demographic transition. The three regions are the U.S., Japan, and the EU. Immigration is often offered as a solution to the remarkable again underway in the developed world. Absent an immediate and dramatic change in immigration, dependency ratios will roughly double over the next three decades placing fiscal institutions, in particular, and economies, in general, under enormous stress. Can immigration alleviate these stresses? The answer is unclear bacause a number of offsetting factors are at play. First, increased immigration raises the size of the labor force, but also lowers real wages. Hence, the increase in the taxable wage base due to immigration will be less than might otherwise be expected. Second, immigrants arrive with some Capital and accumulate more Capital as they age. This raises labor productivity and both payroll and income tax bases. Third, immigrants, like natives, require public goods and become eligible for government welfare, health care, and pension benefits. Fiscally speaking, how much one “earns” from a new immigrant depends on the immigant’s skill level, which, in turn, determines the immigrant’s level of earnings. The reason is that taxes and transfer payments are, in general, collected and distributed on a progressive basis. Consequently, high-skilled immigrants deliver a larger bang for the buck when it comes to paying net taxes (taxes paid net of transfer payments received). Our model confirms this point. Nonetheless, its findings, even with respect to high-skilled immigration, which we investigate in detail in this paper, are not pretty. It shows that a significant expansion of immigration, whether across all skill groups or among particular skill groups, will do remarkably little to alter the major Capital Shortage, tax hikes, and reductions in real wages that can be expected along the demographic transition.
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the developed world s demographic transition the roles of Capital flows immigration and policy
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:The developed word stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions the U.S. Japan which exchange goods and Capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. Other things equal, one would expect the aging of the developed economies to increase Capital per worker as the number of suppliers of Capital (the old) rises relative to the number of suppliers of labor (the young). But given the need to pay the elderly their benefits, other things are far from equal. According to our simulations, the tax hikes needed to finance benefits along the demographic transition path generate a major Capital Shortage that lowers real wages by 19 percent and raises real interest rates by over 400 basis points. Hence, far from mitigating the developed world's fiscal problems, macroeconomic feedback effects make matters significantly worse. The simulations also show that increased immigration does very little to mitigate the fiscal stresses facing the developed world. On the other hand, there are policies that can materially improve the developed world's long-term prospects. The one examined here is closing down, at the margin, existing government pension systems and using consumption taxes to pay off those program's accrued liabilities. This policy could be coupled with the establishment of a fully funded mandatory individual saving system. According to our simulations, this policy would impose modest welfare losses on current generations, but generate enormous welfare gains for future generations. Future Europeans and Japanese benefit the most. Their net wages almost triple, and their welfare levels double compared with the no-reform scenario.
Sabine Jokisch - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the role of immigration in dealing with the developed world s demographic transition
Finanzarchiv, 2004Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:This paper and its companion study, Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff (2004), develop a three-region dynamic general equilibrium life-cycle model to analyze general and skill-specific immigration policy during the demographic transition. The three regions are the U.S., Japan, and the EU. Immigration is often offered as a solution to the remarkable again underway in the developed world. Absent an immediate and dramatic change in immigration, dependency ratios will roughly double over the next three decades placing fiscal institutions, in particular, and economies, in general, under enormous stress. Can immigration alleviate these stresses? The answer is unclear bacause a number of offsetting factors are at play. First, increased immigration raises the size of the labor force, but also lowers real wages. Hence, the increase in the taxable wage base due to immigration will be less than might otherwise be expected. Second, immigrants arrive with some Capital and accumulate more Capital as they age. This raises labor productivity and both payroll and income tax bases. Third, immigrants, like natives, require public goods and become eligible for government welfare, health care, and pension benefits. Fiscally speaking, how much one “earns” from a new immigrant depends on the immigant’s skill level, which, in turn, determines the immigrant’s level of earnings. The reason is that taxes and transfer payments are, in general, collected and distributed on a progressive basis. Consequently, high-skilled immigrants deliver a larger bang for the buck when it comes to paying net taxes (taxes paid net of transfer payments received). Our model confirms this point. Nonetheless, its findings, even with respect to high-skilled immigration, which we investigate in detail in this paper, are not pretty. It shows that a significant expansion of immigration, whether across all skill groups or among particular skill groups, will do remarkably little to alter the major Capital Shortage, tax hikes, and reductions in real wages that can be expected along the demographic transition.
-
the developed world s demographic transition the roles of Capital flows immigration and policy
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003Co-Authors: Hans Fehr, Sabine Jokisch, Laurence J KotlikoffAbstract:The developed word stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the U.S., the EU, and Japan will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will rise by less than 10 percent. The fiscal implications of these two demographic trends are alarming. Paying promised benefits will, it appears, require a doubling or more of payroll tax rates. This paper asks if there is a silver lining in this dark cloud hanging over the developed world. Specifically, can the developed economies hope to be bailed out by either macroeconomic feedback effects of by increased migration? To address these questions, this paper develops and simulates a dynamic, intergeneration, and interregional demographic life-cycle model. The model has three regions the U.S. Japan which exchange goods and Capital. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension, life span uncertainty, bequests arising from incomplete annuitization, and intra-cohort heterogeneity. Other things equal, one would expect the aging of the developed economies to increase Capital per worker as the number of suppliers of Capital (the old) rises relative to the number of suppliers of labor (the young). But given the need to pay the elderly their benefits, other things are far from equal. According to our simulations, the tax hikes needed to finance benefits along the demographic transition path generate a major Capital Shortage that lowers real wages by 19 percent and raises real interest rates by over 400 basis points. Hence, far from mitigating the developed world's fiscal problems, macroeconomic feedback effects make matters significantly worse. The simulations also show that increased immigration does very little to mitigate the fiscal stresses facing the developed world. On the other hand, there are policies that can materially improve the developed world's long-term prospects. The one examined here is closing down, at the margin, existing government pension systems and using consumption taxes to pay off those program's accrued liabilities. This policy could be coupled with the establishment of a fully funded mandatory individual saving system. According to our simulations, this policy would impose modest welfare losses on current generations, but generate enormous welfare gains for future generations. Future Europeans and Japanese benefit the most. Their net wages almost triple, and their welfare levels double compared with the no-reform scenario.
Mohammed Getahun - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the challenge and prospects of small scale enterprise in ethiopia a survey of some selected small scale enterprise in addis ababa city
International journal of scientific and research publications, 2016Co-Authors: Mohammed GetahunAbstract:The small scale industries have a very important and effective role in the developed countries generally and in developing countries especially because it is considered the backbone of their economies. In respect of this, the main purpose of this study is to identify the problems and prospects of small enterprise in Addis Ababa sub-city. To do this, data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. The main instrument of data collection was the questionnaire and supported by interview. The data were presented in tables as frequency, distribution in the data analysis; the techniques of percentages frequencies were used. The empirical studies elicit major challenges which seem to affect performance of SSEs in sub-cities which include: inadequate finance, inadequate infrastructures, poor management practices, multiple taxation and Capital Shortage in that order, are the major challenges affecting small scale businesses in Ethiopia. The researcher suggested that the challenges and problems of the SSEs in Ethiopia are having many centers and hence can only be effectively tackled by a multi-dimensional and concerted approach by all stakeholders i.e. the governments and their agencies, banks, regulatory authorities, tax authorities,), the employees of SSEs, multilateral and bilateral agencies and donors.
Jing Gao - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Price Strategy of Competitive Supply Chain Based on Bank Financing
'Hindawi Limited', 2020Co-Authors: Jing GaoAbstract:In the traditional single-chain supply chain literature research, it is assumed that enterprises in the supply chain system have enough working Capital. However, in practical management practice, enterprises are often faced with Capital Shortage, poor operation, and other related risks. In this paper, the price strategy of competitive supply chain based on bank financing is studied when many retailers are short of funds in the competitive environment. It is found that once the market share among retailers is fixed, the wholesale price of suppliers and the selling price of retailers will gradually increase with the increase of competition intensity, regardless of whether the retailer has financial constraints or not. The greater the competition intensity among retailers is, the better the expected profit of each member of the supply chain and the system will be. Finally, with the help of numerical analysis, the validity of the conclusion is depicted and verified. The relevant conclusions enrich and develop the financing theory of competitive supply chain, providing a strong practical reference value for the fund risk management of supply chain enterprises in the competitive environment
