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Robert W Dimand - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Jacob Marschak and the Cowles Approaches to the Theory of Money and Assets
The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2020Co-Authors: Robert W Dimand, Harald HagemannAbstract:Jacob Marschak shaped the emergence of monetary theory and portfolio choice at the Cowles Commission (which he directed from 1943 to 1948, but with which he was involved already from 1937) at the U...
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Macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s
The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2020Co-Authors: Robert W DimandAbstract:This paper explores the development of dynamic modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations at the Cowles Commission from Roos, Dynamic Economics (Cowles Monograph No. 1, 1934) and Davis, Analysis of Ec...
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The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics
The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2019Co-Authors: Robert W DimandAbstract:Founded in 1932 by a newspaper heir disillusioned by the failure of forecasters to predict the Great Crash, the Cowles Commission promoted the use of formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, initially through summer research conferences in Colorado and through support of the Econometric Society (of which Alfred Cowles was secretary-treasurer for decades). After moving to the University of Chicago in 1939, the Cowles Commission sponsored works, many later honored with Nobel Prizes but at the time out of the mainstream of economics, by Haavelmo, Hurwicz and Koopmans on econometrics, Arrow and Debreu on general equilibrium, Yntema and Mosak on general equilibrium in international trade theory, Arrow on social choice, Koopmans on activity analysis, Klein on macroeconometric modelling, Lange, Marschak and Patinkin on macroeconomic theory, and Markowitz on portfolio choice, but came into intense methodological, ideological and personal conflict with the emerging "Chicago school." This conflict led the Cowles Commission to move to Yale in 1955 as the Cowles Foundation, directed by James Tobin (who had declined to move to Chicago to direct it). The Cowles Foundation remained a leader in the more technical areas of economics, notably with Tobin's "Yale school" of monetary theory, Scarf's computable general equilibrium, Shubik in game theory, and later Phillips and Andrews in econometric theory but as formal methods in economic theory and econometrics pervaded the discipline of economics, Cowles (like the Econometric Society) became less distinct from the rest of economics. This entry is part of an archivally-based history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation Commissioned by the Cowles Foundation. This paper is the entry on "The Cowles Commission and Foundation for Research in Economics" in The New Palgrave Online https://link.springer.com/referencework/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5 and is included as a Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper by the kind permission of Springer Nature.
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Léon Walras, Irving Fisher and the Cowles Approach to General Equilibrium Analysis
2019Co-Authors: Robert W DimandAbstract:This paper explores the relationship of Walras's work to a particularly influential tradition of general equilibrium, that associated with the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics in Colorado in the 1930s and at the University of Chicago from 1939 to 1955, and its successor, the Cowles Foundation, at Yale University from 1955. Irving Fisher introduced general equilibrium analysis into North America with his 1891 Yale dissertation Mathematical Investigations in the Theory of Value and Prices (published 1892) and was responsible in 1892 for the first English translation of a monograph by Walras. Fisher was only able to obtain copies of books by Walras and Edgeworth when his thesis was almost ready for submission, discovering that he had independently reinvented a general equilibrium approach already developed by others, but went beyond Walras in constructing a hydraulic mechanism to simulate computation of general equilibrium and, before Pareto, in using indifference curves. Fisher was closely involved with Alfred Cowles in the Cowles Commission, the Econometric Society and Econometrica in the 1930s, promoting formal mathematical and statistical methods in economics, including drawing attention to the contributions of Walras, Edgeworth and Pareto. The first substantial, systematic work on general equilibrium at the Cowles Commission was in international trade, by Theodore Yntema, research director of the Cowles Commission from 1939 to 1942 and author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade (1932) and by Yntema's student, Jacob Mosak, author of General Equilibrium Theory in International Trade (1944). A subsequent, much better-known body of work on existence of general equilibrium at Cowles was by Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreu (initially independently but leading to a major joint publication) and by Lionel McKenzie, all three associated with the Cowles Commission in Chicago in the early 1950s. After Cowles moved to Yale, the focus of general equilibrium research at the Cowles Foundation was Herbert Scarf's pioneering work on computable general equilibrium (which he linked to Fisher's earlier attempt, first presenting his approach in his contribution to Ten Economic Studies in the Tradition of Irving Fisher, 1967). Fisher and then the Cowles Commission were the channel through which Walrasian general equilibrium analysis entered North American economics. This paper is part of a larger history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation, Commissioned by the Cowles Foundation. Presented at the 10th conference of the International Walras Association, University of Lausanne, 13-14 September 2019. I thank Amanar Akhabbar, Annie L. Cot, ClA©o Chaussonery-LaA¯gouche and Harro Maas for helpful comments at the conference, and Daniel Sarech for his presentation which drew my attention to the writings of Firmin OulA¨s.
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macroeconomic dynamics at the Cowles Commission from the 1930s to the 1950s
2019Co-Authors: Robert W DimandAbstract:This paper explores the development of dynamic modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations at the Cowles Commission from Roos, Dynamic Economics (Cowles Monograph No. 1, 1934) and Davis, Analysis of Economic Time Series (Cowles Monograph No. 6, 1941) to Koopmans, ed., Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models (Cowles Monograph No. 10, 1950) and Klein’s Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921-1941 (Cowles Monograph No. 11, 1950), emphasizing the emergence of a distinctive Cowles Commission approach to structural modelling of macroeconomic fluctuations influenced by Cowles Commission work on structural estimation of simulation equations models, as advanced by Haavelmo (“A Probability Approach to Econometrics,” Cowles Commission Paper No. 4, 1944) and in Cowles Monographs Nos. 10 and 14. This paper is part of a larger project, a history of the Cowles Commission and Foundation Commissioned by the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics at Yale University. Presented at the Association Charles Gide workshop “Macroeconomics: Dynamic Histories. When Statics is no longer Enough,” Colmar, May 16-19, 2019.
Mauro Boianovsky - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Patinkin, the Cowles Commission, and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply
European Journal of The History of Economic Thought, 2002Co-Authors: Mauro BoianovskyAbstract:The paper provides an account of Don Patinkin's long-time search for an explanation of the notions of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment under the assumption of a perfectly competitive goods market. It is argued that Patinkin's quest is reflected on the development of the concept of an aggregate supply function in the goods market. Patinkin's interpretation of aggregate supply and unemployment is compared to similar ideas put forward by Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo and Lawrence Klein, his former colleagues at the Cowles Commission in Chicago.
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Patinkin, the Cowles Commission, and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply
2001Co-Authors: Mauro BoianovskyAbstract:“For a long period before the writing of the first edition [of Money, Interest and Prices] I had been puzzled by the apparent contradiction between the intuitive feeling, on one hand, that there was a connection between a firm’s product-output and its labor-input, and the traditional demand curve for labor, on the other hand, that did not depend explicitly on output and whose sole independent variable was the real wage rate.” (Patinkin, 1989, p. xvi)
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PATINKIN ON INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
2001Co-Authors: Seminários Acadêmicos, Mauro BoianovskyAbstract:Patinkin, the Cowles Commission, and the theory of unemployment and aggregate suppl
James J Heckman - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economics: A Twentieth Century Retrospective." Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (February
University of Chicago Press, 2010Co-Authors: James L. Heckman, James J HeckmanAbstract:JEL No. C10 The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem), and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced. This paper summarizes the development of those ideas by the Cowles Commission, the response to their work by structural econometricians and VAR econometricians, and the response to structural and VAR econometrics by calibrators, advocates of natural and social experiments, and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians
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causal parameters and policy analysis in economics a twentieth century retrospective
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000Co-Authors: James J HeckmanAbstract:The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem), and clarification of the role of causal parameters in policy evaluation and in forecasting the effects of policies never previously experienced. This paper summarizes the development of those ideas by the Cowles Commission, the response to their work by structural econometricians and VAR econometricians, and the response to structural and VAR econometrics by calibrators, advocates of natural and social experiments, and by nonparametric econometricians and statisticians.
Duo Qin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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CONSOLIDATION OF THE HAAVELMO-Cowles Commission RESEARCH PROGRAM
Econometric Theory, 2014Co-Authors: Duo QinAbstract:Much of modern econometrics stems directly from the post-1940 works of Haavelmo and the Cowles Commission (CC) Monograph 10. This paper examines the consolidation process of the Haavelmo-CC research program mainly during the 1950–70 period from three aspects: (i) developments of econometrics textbooks, (ii) emerging themes and trends in econometric research, and (iii) the contribution of the program to empirical modeling of real-world issues. The examination reveals that the program has gained dominance primarily through its adherence to the scientific banner and style rather than its empirical relevance. The adoption of the hard science methodology is decisive in winning over the academic community; the taxonomy of econometrics into steps involving primarily specification, identification, and estimation has played a pivotal role in generating compartmentalized research topics with manageable technical challenge and also in facilitating the educational need for compiling self-contained subjects and definitely soluble questions.
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A History of Econometrics: The Reformation from the 1970s
2013Co-Authors: Duo QinAbstract:Introduction 1. Consolidation of the Cowles Commission Research Programme 2. Rise of Bayesian Econometrics 3. Rise of the VAR Approach 4. Rise of the LSE Approach 5. Case Study One: Modelling the Phillips Curve 6. Case Study Two: Modelling Business Cycles 7. Shifting Targets of Structural Parameters 8. Evolving Roles of Error Terms 9. Calibration of Model Selection and Design Procedure 10. Impact of the CC Programme through Citation Analysis Epilogue
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Econometric Studies of Business Cycles in the History of Econometrics
2010Co-Authors: Duo QinAbstract:This study examines the evolution of econometric research in business cycle analysis during the 1960-90 period. It shows how the research was dominated by an assimilation of the tradition of NBER business cycle analysis by the Haavelmo-Cowles Commission approach, catalysed by time-series statistical methods. Methodological consequences of the assimilation are critically evaluated in light of the meagre achievement of the research in predicting the current global recession.
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Rise of VAR Modelling Approach
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2008Co-Authors: Duo QinAbstract:Abstract This paper surveys the rise of the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises from a fusion of the Cowles Commission tradition and time series statistical methods, catalysed by the rational expectations (RE) movement, that the approach offers a systematic solution to the issue of model choice bypassed by Cowles researchers, hence essentially inheriting and enhancing the Cowles legacy rather than abandoning or opposing it. By tackling model choice, however, the VAR approach helps reform econometrics by shifting the research focus from measurement of given theories to identification/verification of data-coherent theories.
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VAR modelling arroach and Cowles Commission heritage
2006Co-Authors: Duo QinAbstract:This paper examines the rise of the VAR approach from a historical perspective. It shows that the VAR approach arises as a systematic solution to the issue of 'model choice' bypassed by Cowles Commission (CC) researchers, and that the approach essentially inherits and enhances the CC legacy rather than abandons or opposes it. It argues that the approach is not so atheoretical as widely believed and that it helps reform econometrics by shifting research focus from measurement of given theories to identification/verification of data-coherent theories, and hence from confirmatory analysis to a mixture of confirmatory and exploratory analysis.
Vincent Carret - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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(In)stability at the Cowles Commission (1939–1948)
The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2020Co-Authors: Michaël Assous, Vincent CarretAbstract:Stability analysis touched off extensive discussions at the Cowles Commission between 1939 and 1948. Oskar Lange, later followed by Lawrence Klein and Don Patinkin, among others, advocated for a mo...
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in stability at the Cowles Commission 1939 1948
European Journal of The History of Economic Thought, 2020Co-Authors: Michaël Assous, Vincent CarretAbstract:Stability analysis touched off extensive discussions at the Cowles Commission between 1939 and 1948. Oskar Lange, later followed by Lawrence Klein and Don Patinkin, among others, advocated for a mo...
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(In)stability at the Cowles Commission (1939-1948)
European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2020Co-Authors: Michaël Assous, Vincent CarretAbstract:Stability analysis touched off extensive discussions at the Cowles Commission between 1939 and 1948. Oskar Lange, later followed by Lawrence Klein and Don Patinkin, among others, advocated for a move from a static analysis aimed at proving the existence of a stationary equilibrium with unemployment towards a dynamic approach exploring stability properties of full employment equilibria. In presence of excess supply of goods and labour with flexible money wages and prices, the message was that macroeconomic pathologies are better regarded as disequilibrium dynamics when full employment equilibrium is unstable \textendash Lange and Klein \textendash or when it is stable \textendash Patinkin. The objective of this paper is to examine this type of modelling and how it provided the basis of a specific political vision shared by most economists of the Cowles Commission in the 1940's.
