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Frederic Reynes - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
Energy, 2011Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
Energy, 2011Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Abstract Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peal Oil
2010Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
EcoMod2010, 2010Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Yue Jun Zhang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Crude Oil price shocks monetary policy and china s economy
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2019Co-Authors: Yue Jun Zhang, Fenghua Wen, Feng Min, Can YangAbstract:This paper develops a time‐varying parameter vector autoregressive model to examine the dynamic effects of Crude Oil prices and monetary policy on China's economy during January 1996 to June 2017. The empirical results indicate that (a) in general, international Crude Oil price shocks have positive effect on China's economic growth and inflation in the short run, but the long‐run effect appears diverse; (b) China's monetary policy shocks have positive effect on the economic growth and inflation overall; specifically, an increase in monetary supply can partly offset Crude Oil prices' negative effect on China's economic growth; (c) China's monetary policy has positive effect on Crude Oil prices and plays an important role in the relationship between Crude Oil price shocks and economy; and (d) during the recent global financial crisis, Crude Oil price shocks produce greater negative effect on China's economic growth, whereas the long‐run effect of monetary policy on China's economic growth proves weaker, compared with other periods.
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A novel hybrid method for Crude Oil price forecasting
Energy Economics, 2015Co-Authors: Jin-liang Zhang, Yue Jun ZhangAbstract:Forecasting Crude Oil price is a challenging task. Given the nonlinear and time-varying characteristics of international Crude Oil prices, we propose a novel hybrid method to forecast Crude Oil prices. First, we use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method to decompose international Crude Oil price into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the residual term. Then, the least square support vector machine together with the particle swarm optimization (LSSVM-PSO) method and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model are developed to forecast the nonlinear and time-varying components of Crude Oil prices, respectively. Next, the forecasted Crude Oil prices of each component are summed as the final forecasted results of Crude Oil prices. The results show that, the newly proposed hybrid method has a strong forecasting capability for Crude Oil prices, due to its excellent performance in adaptation to the random sample selection, data frequency and structural breaks in samples. Furthermore, the comparison results also indicate that the new method proves superior in forecasting accuracy to those well-recognized methods for Crude Oil price forecasting.
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speculative trading and wti Crude Oil futures price movement an empirical analysis
Applied Energy, 2013Co-Authors: Yue Jun ZhangAbstract:Based on the historical data of CFTC’s Commitments of Traders (COT) reports from 2007 to 2010, this paper empirically studies the influence of speculators’ positions on WTI Crude Oil futures returns. The results indicate that, first, the instantaneous feedback of speculators’ position change on Crude Oil price return proves statistically significant and dominates the linear feedback relationship between them during the sample period although speculation does not appear a significant driver of Crude Oil price movement in the lead-and-lag sense. Second, the contemporaneous influence of speculators’ positions on Oil price takes evident linearity but weak nonlinearity. Third, when Oil price has high (low) volatility, non-commercials’ position change may exert a significant (insignificant) linear shock on Oil price returns. And whether Crude Oil price stays in high or low volatility, the nonlinear influence does not appear significant. Finally, the linear influence appears symmetric when Crude Oil price goes up and down, but the nonlinear influence takes asymmetric feature; and neither of linear and nonlinear influence is symmetric when Crude Oil price experiences high and low volatility.
Samuel Jovan Okullo - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
Energy, 2011Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
Energy, 2011Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Abstract Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peal Oil
2010Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior.
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can reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces attenuate peak Oil
EcoMod2010, 2010Co-Authors: Samuel Jovan Okullo, Frederic ReynesAbstract:Following the peak in US Crude Oil production 30 years ago, more and more non-OPEC producers have seen their production decline as a result of resource depletion. OPEC, on the other hand has extracted a comparatively smaller proportion of its reserve base. Given that new non-OPEC discoveries are growing ever limited, we explore the role of reserve additions and OPEC in determining future Crude Oil supply: we formulate a model that embodies a weak and strong OPEC for various rates of reserve additions in mature Crude Oil provinces. Using this geo-economic partial equilibrium model that generates a peak in Crude Oil production, we show that although potential conventional Crude Oil resources may seem abundant, OPEC strategy could cause substantial Crude Oil reserve depletion in non-OPEC countries by 2050 (or even earlier) given likely depletion rates. In addition, we find that reducing reserve decline rates in mature Crude Oil provinces not only extends the time to exhaustion substantially, but also discourages OPEC from engaging in an overly strategic extraction behavior. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Jin-liang Zhang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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A novel hybrid method for Crude Oil price forecasting
Energy Economics, 2015Co-Authors: Jin-liang Zhang, Yue Jun ZhangAbstract:Forecasting Crude Oil price is a challenging task. Given the nonlinear and time-varying characteristics of international Crude Oil prices, we propose a novel hybrid method to forecast Crude Oil prices. First, we use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method to decompose international Crude Oil price into a series of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the residual term. Then, the least square support vector machine together with the particle swarm optimization (LSSVM-PSO) method and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model are developed to forecast the nonlinear and time-varying components of Crude Oil prices, respectively. Next, the forecasted Crude Oil prices of each component are summed as the final forecasted results of Crude Oil prices. The results show that, the newly proposed hybrid method has a strong forecasting capability for Crude Oil prices, due to its excellent performance in adaptation to the random sample selection, data frequency and structural breaks in samples. Furthermore, the comparison results also indicate that the new method proves superior in forecasting accuracy to those well-recognized methods for Crude Oil price forecasting.
Nabil Esmail - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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rheological properties of heavy light Crude Oil mixtures for improving flowability
Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 2012Co-Authors: Mamdouh T Ghannam, Shadi W Hasan, Basim Abujdayil, Nabil EsmailAbstract:Abstract The rheological properties of heavy Crude Oil and its mixture with light Crude Oil were investigated experimentally. These rheological properties include steady flow behavior, yield stress, transient flow behavior, thixotropy behavior, and viscoelastic behavior. A RheoStress RS100 rheometer was employed in all of the rheological examination tests. The heavy Crude Oil exhibits a non-Newtonian shear thinning behavior over the examined shear rate range of 0.1–750 s − 1 . The viscosity of the heavy Crude Oil decreases considerably with temperature over the range of 25–65 °C. The addition of 10% light Crude Oil to the heavy Crude Oil, to form 10% HLCO mixture, causes a strong reduction in the heavy Crude Oil viscosity from 10 Pa.s to 1.2 Pa.s at 25 °C. An even higher viscosity reduction from 10 Pa.s to 0.375 Pa.s at 25 °C can be achieved in the presence of 20% light Crude Oil. The yield stress of the heavy Crude Oil reaches 0.7 Pa at a room temperature of 25 °C and it decreases to 0.4 Pa at 65 °C. The tested samples of heavy Crude Oil, 10% HLCO mixture, and 20% HLCO mixture exhibit time independent flow behavior. The heavy Crude Oil shows a thixotropic area of 321.65 kPa/s at 25 °C and decreases to 118.62 kPa/s at 65 °C. The presence of the light Crude Oil eliminates the thixotropic behavior of the heavy Crude Oil. The complex modulus of the heavy Crude Oil decreases significantly with temperature. The addition of 10% of the light Crude Oil strongly reduces the values of the complex modulus of the heavy Crude Oil. From the comparison of the storage and loss moduli values for the heavy Crude Oil, it is found that the heavy Crude and its blends flow in a viscous liquid behavior. The 10% and 20% of the HLCO mixtures display viscous behavior as well. The storage and loss moduli of the heavy Crude Oil decrease significantly by the addition of 10% light Crude Oil.
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heavy Crude Oil viscosity reduction and rheology for pipeline transportation
Fuel, 2010Co-Authors: Shadi W Hasan, Mamdouh T Ghannam, Nabil EsmailAbstract:Abstract Different methods of reducing the viscosity of heavy Crude Oil to enhance the flow properties were investigated. Experimental measurements were conducted using RheoStress RS100 from Haake. Several factors such as shear rate, temperature and light Oil concentration on the viscosity behavior have been studied. This study shows that the blending of the heavy Crude Oil with a limited amount of lighter Crude Oil provided better performance than the other alternatives. Experimental measurements in terms of shear stress τ –shear rate γ ˙ , and yield stress τ 0 were conducted on the mixture of heavy Crude Oil–light Crude Oil (O-light). The results showed a significant viscosity reduction of 375 mPa s at a room temperature of 25 °C. This study shows that the heavy Crude Oil required a yield stress of 0.7 Pa, whereas no yield stress was reported for the heavy Crude Oil–light Crude Oil mixture.