The Experts below are selected from a list of 6639 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Christoph Fischer - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Real Currency Appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand
Review of World Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Christoph FischerAbstract:The Balassa-Samuelson effect is often seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real Appreciation of Central and East European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts. A simple model shows that productivity shocks work not only through a Balassa-type supply channel but also through an investment demand channel. Therefore, empirical evidence apparently in favour of Balassa-Samuelson effects may require a re-interpretation. The model is estimated for a panel of CEE countries. The results are consistent with the model palusibly explain the observed real Appreciation and support the existence of the proposed investment demand channel. JEL no. F31, F41, C33
-
Real Currency Appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand
Review of World Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Christoph FischerAbstract:Real exchange rate, Balassa-Samuelson effect, transition economies, panel,
Hyun Song Shin - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
FX intervention and domestic credit: Evidence from high-frequency micro data
2019Co-Authors: Boris Hofmann, Hyun Song Shin, Mauricio Villamizar-villegasAbstract:We employ a rarely available high-frequency micro data set to study the impact of foreign exchange intervention on domestic credit growth. We find that sterilised purchases of dollars by the central bank dampens the flow of new domestic corporate loans in Colombia. Slowing the pace of Currency Appreciation plays a key role in dampening credit expansion. Our analysis sheds light on the role of FX intervention as part of the financial stability-oriented policy response to credit booms associated with capital inflow surges.
-
Bond risk premia and the exchange rate
2019Co-Authors: Boris Hofmann, Ilhyock Shim, Hyun Song ShinAbstract:In emerging market economies, Currency Appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local Currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral US dollar exchange rate, not the trade-weighted exchange rate. Our findings highlight endogenous co-movement of bond risk premia and exchange rates through the portfolio choice of global investors who evaluate returns in dollar terms.
-
Sovereign Yields and the Risk-Taking Channel of Currency Appreciation
2016Co-Authors: Boris Hofmann, Ilhyock Shim, Hyun Song ShinAbstract:Currency Appreciation goes hand in hand with easier financial conditions and compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local Currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral dollar exchange rate, not the trade-weighted exchange rate. Our findings point to a financial risk-taking channel of Currency Appreciation associated with the global role of the dollar.
-
capital flows and the risk taking channel of monetary policy
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2015Co-Authors: Valentina Bruno, Hyun Song ShinAbstract:We study the dynamics linking monetary policy with bank leverage and show that adjustments in leverage act as the linchpin in the monetary transmission mechanism that works through fluctuations in risk-taking. Motivated by the evidence, we formulate a model of the "risk-taking channel" of monetary policy in the international context that rests on the feedback loop between increased leverage of global banks and capital flows amid Currency Appreciation for capital recipient economies.
Simla Tokgoz - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese Currency Appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013Co-Authors: Jun Yang, Wei Zhang, Simla TokgozAbstract:This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB Appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese Currency Appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.
-
THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHINESE Currency Appreciation ON CHINA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD: A GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
2012Co-Authors: Jun Yang, Wei Zhang, Simla TokgozAbstract:There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi, with continuous international political pressure on China to appreciate its Currency and the Chinese government resisting significant changes in its policy. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi Appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi Appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese Currency Appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve.
Jun Yang - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese Currency Appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2013Co-Authors: Jun Yang, Wei Zhang, Simla TokgozAbstract:This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB Appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese Currency Appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.
-
THE MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHINESE Currency Appreciation ON CHINA AND THE REST OF THE WORLD: A GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
2012Co-Authors: Jun Yang, Wei Zhang, Simla TokgozAbstract:There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi, with continuous international political pressure on China to appreciate its Currency and the Chinese government resisting significant changes in its policy. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi Appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi Appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese Currency Appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve.
Anirudh Shingal - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
-
Backward participation in global value chains and exchange rate driven adjustments of Swiss exports
Review of World Economics, 2018Co-Authors: Dario Fauceglia, Anirudh Shingal, Andrea Lassmann, Martin WermelingerAbstract:This paper examines the effect of exchange rate movements on export volume, export revenues and propensity to export taking into account the extent of foreign value added content of exports (“backward integration”) in global value chains (GVCs). Using both product-level and firm-level panel data, our results suggest that Swiss exports (intensive margin) and the export probability (extensive margin) are negatively affected by a Currency Appreciation. However, this adverse effect is mitigated in sectors and firms that are more integrated in GVCs, which could be explained by the “natural hedging” of exchange rate movements. Our findings are robust to the use of different measures of natural hedging and GVC integration and also hold across various specifications and estimation methods that control for sample selection, firm heterogeneity, heteroskedastic errors and persistence in export behavior. The dynamic specifications also reveal that export hysteresis driven by a Currency Appreciation is a concern particularly for firms that are not established in export markets.
-
Labour market effects of Currency Appreciation: The case of Switzerland
2018Co-Authors: Peter Egger, Johannes Schwarzer, Anirudh ShingalAbstract:Recent work on labour market effects of globalization has generated both academic and populist interests. However, this work has focussed exclusively on the manufacturing sector. Moreover, general equilibrium effects of globalization have received little attention. This study contributes to filling both these gaps by examining the general equilibrium effects of external exposure on the labor market in Switzerland. We exploit exogenous exchange rate movements to identify trade-induced shocks across all sectors of the Swiss economy and transpose industry-level exposure to the municipal level, using detailed employment data on the entirety of Swiss firms. We find strong evidence for three channels of employment effects of Currency Appreciation - negative employment growth induced by increasing export uncompetitiveness and higher import competition, and positive employment growth induced by cheaper availability of foreign inputs. The combined average effect of the three channels on employment is found to be negative in our preferred results, with significant heterogeneity across municipalities.
-
Natural Hedging of Exchange Rate Risk: The Role of Imported Input Prices
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2014Co-Authors: Dario Fauceglia, Anirudh Shingal, Martin WermelingerAbstract:In this paper, we estimate ERPT into imported input prices and export prices using disaggregated quarterly trade data for Switzerland over 2004–2011. We find evidence for high pass-through rates into imported input prices. This demonstrates the effectiveness of natural hedging. On the export side, ERPT exhibits substantial sectoral heterogeneity and changes in imported input costs are not transmitted to foreign consumers in most cases. This suggests the use of cheaper imported inputs to offset adverse effects of Currency Appreciation on export profit margins.
