The Experts below are selected from a list of 360 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Bruce Hearn - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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equity market integration versus segmentation in three dominant markets of the southern african Customs Union cointegration and causality tests
Social Science Research Network, 2008Co-Authors: Jenifer Piesse, Bruce HearnAbstract:Empirical tests of theories of financial market integration and segmentation have predominantly focussed on developed OECD countries and the emerging markets of Asia Pacific. This paper uses a unique panel of equity market indices from the principal Southern African Customs Union (SACU) markets. The paper tests the hypothesis of market integration using a cointegration approach. Markets that are found to be integrated are then tested for evidence of Granger causality through an error correction mechanism. Results obtained using VAR modelling techniques are compared to those using an ARDL model. While results lend support to existing trade, macroeconomic and developmental linkages and effects between and within the countries, there is some evidence for the presence of a regional factor common to African Emerging Markets that explains causality from Namibia to South Africa. The results support the view that institution building has progressed, which is considered to be a valuable contribution to growth promotion policies in SSA and market integration throughout financial markets in the SADC community
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equity market integration versus segmentation in three dominant markets of the southern african Customs Union cointegration and causality tests
Applied Economics, 2002Co-Authors: Jenifer Piesse, Bruce HearnAbstract:Empirical tests of theories of financial market integration and segmentation have predominantly focused on developed OECD countries and the emerging markets of Asia Pacific. This study uses a unique panel of equity market indices from the principal Southern African Customs Union (SACU) markets. It tests the hypothesis of market integration using a cointegration approach. Markets that are found to be integrated are then tested for evidence of Granger causality through an error correction mechanism. Results obtained using VAR modelling techniques are compared to those using an ARDL model. While results lend support to existing trade, macroeconomic and developmental linkages and effects between and within the countries, there is some evidence for the presence of a regional factor common to African Emerging Markets that explains causality from Namibia to South Africa. The results support the view that institution building has progressed, which is considered to be a valuable contribution to growth promotion po...
Robert M Stern - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an analysis of a us southern african Customs Union sacu free trade agreement
World Development, 2008Co-Authors: Drusilla K Brown, Kozo Kiyota, Robert M SternAbstract:Summary This paper analyzes the potential economic effects of bilateral negotiations for an FTA between the United States and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The US–SACU FTA bilateral negotiations were initiated in June 2003, but have become deadlocked over a series of issues of concern to the SACU. To determine whether a bilateral FTA might be in the SACU members’ interests, we use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the welfare and other economic effects of a bilateral FTA. We conclude that the benefits of an FTA are rather small, and that the interests of the global trading community, including the United States and SACU, could be better served by unilateral and especially multilateral liberalization.
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computational analysis of the u s fta with the southern african Customs Union sacu
Research Papers in Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Drusilla K Brown, Kozo Kiyota, Robert M SternAbstract:We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. FTA being negotiated with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the U.S.-SACU FTA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of the bilateral FTA for the United States and the SACU are rather small in both absolute and relative terms. Far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and the SACU adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.
David G Tarr - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the eurasian Customs Union among russia belarus and kazakhstan can it succeed where its predecessor failed
Research Papers in Economics, 2014Co-Authors: David G TarrAbstract:In 2010, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan formed the Eurasian Customs Union and imposed the Russian tariff as the common external tariff of the Customs Union. This resulted in almost doubling the external average tariff of the more liberal Kazakhstan. Russia has benefited from additional exports to Kazakhstan under the protection of the higher tariffs in Kazakhstan. But estimates reveal that the tariff changes resulted in substantial transfers from Kazakhstan to Russia as importers in Kazakhstan now purchase lower quality or higher priced Russian imports that are protected under the tariff umbrella of the common external tariff. Transfers from the Central Asian countries to Russia were the reason the Eurasian Economic Community (known as EurAsEC) failed, so this bodes badly for the ultimate success of the Eurasian Customs Union. What is different, however, is that the Eurasian Customs Union and its associated Common Economic Space aim to reduce non-tariff barriers and improve trade facilitation, and also to allow the free movement of capital and labor, liberalize services, and harmonize some regulations. Estimates by my colleagues and I show that if substantial progress could be made in trade facilitation and reducing non-tariff barriers, this could make the Customs Union positive for Kazakhstan and other potential Central Asian members. Unfortunately, so far the Customs Union has made these matters worse. But Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization will eventually substantially reduce the transfers from Kazakhstan to Russia. Progress with non-tariff barriers and trade facilitation, however, will take a strong political commitment from Russia which we have not yet seen. But if that Russian political leadership is forthcoming, the Eurasian Customs Union could succeed where its predecessor failed.
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impact of wto accession and the Customs Union on the bound and applied tariff rates of the russian federation
Research Papers in Economics, 2012Co-Authors: Oleksandr Shepotylo, David G TarrAbstract:After 18 years of negotiations, Russia has joined the World Trade Organization. This paper assesses how the tariff structure of the Russian Federation will change as a result of the phased implementation of its World Trade Organization commitments between 2012 and 2020 and how it has changed as a result of its agreement to participate in a Customs Union with Kazakhstan and Belarus. The analysis uses trade data at the ten digit level, which allows the first accurate assessment of the impact of these policy changes. It finds that World Trade Organization commitments will progressively and significantly lower the applied tariffs of the Russian Federation. After all commitments are implemented, tariffs will fall from 11.5 percent to 7.9 percent on an un-weighted average basis, or from 13.0 percent to 5.8 percent on a weighted average basis. The average"bound"tariff rate of Russia under its World Trade Organization commitments will be 8.6 percent, that is, 0.7 percentage points higher than the applied tariffs. Russia's commitments represent significant tariff liberalization, but compared with other countries that have acceded to the World Trade Organization, the commitments of the Russian Federation are not unusual, especially when compared with the Transition countries.
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economic implications for turkey of a Customs Union with the european Union a quantitative based policy analysis
Social Science Research Network, 1998Co-Authors: Glenn W Harrison, Thomas F Rutherford, David G TarrAbstract:Turkey and the European Union (eu) have agreed to implement a Customs Union. This means Turkey will eliminate its tariffs and levies on imports of manufactured products from the European Union. Turkey will also apply the eu's "common external tariff" on imports from third countries. Turkey will be obligated by 2001 to provide preferential access to its markets to all countries to which the eu grants such access. Since Turkey is both eliminating tariffs on eu imports and reducing tariffs on imports from third countries, it will become a rather open economy in nonagricultural sectors, with tariffs below 2 percent (zero for imports from the eu and slightly over an average 3 percent for thirdcountries). And since preferential access agreements with third countries will typically be reciprocal, Turkish exporters can expect improved access to those markets.
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economic implications for turkey of a Customs Union with the european Union
European Economic Review, 1997Co-Authors: Glenn W Harrison, Thomas F Rutherford, David G TarrAbstract:Abstract With a CGE model, we quantify the impact of the Customs Union between Turkey and the European Union (EU). Since the average tariff on non-agricultural imports will be less than 2 percent, the trade diversion costs of the Customs Union are quite small. Improved access to third country markets (through reciprocal preferential access agreements of the EU) results in the largest gains from the Customs Union, estimated overall to be about 1–1.5 percent of Turkish GDP. Applying the VAT uniformly (rather than raising it to compensate for the tariff revenue loss) will increase the welfare gain from joining the EU.
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economic implications for turkey of a Customs Union with the european Union
Research Papers in Economics, 1996Co-Authors: Glenn W Harrison, Thomas F Rutherford, David G TarrAbstract:Turkey and the European Union (EU) have agreed to implement a Customs Union. This means Turkey will eliminate its tariffs and levies on imports on manufactured products from the EU. Turkey will also apply EU's"common external tariff"on imports from third countries. Turkey will be obligated by 20001 to provide preferential access to its markets to all countries to which the EU grants such access. Since Turkey is both eliminating tariffs on EU imports and reducing tariffs on imports from third countries, it will become a rather open economy in nonagricultural sectors. And since preferential access agreements with third countries will typically be reciprocal, Turkish exporters can expect improved access to those markets. According to the authors, Turkey's biggest gains from the Customs Union arrangement will come from this improved access to third country markets. Using a comparative static computable general equilibrium model of Turkey, they estimate that Turkey stands to gain between 1 and 1.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) annually from the Customs Union arrangement with the EU, depending on what complementary policies it adopts. They also estimate that lost tariff revenues will amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. For Turkey to avoid worsening its fiscal deficit, it must find ways to reduce expenditures or increase revenues. Its best choice is to reduce expenditures through accelerating privatization of state-owned enterprises which will generate a number of macroeconomic and efficiency benefits in addition to the fiscal benefits. If a value-added tax (VAT) is used as a replacement tax, they estimate that VAT rates must increase 16.2 percent in each sector to compensate for the revenue losses from implementing the full Customs Union. But uniform application of the VAT would allow the VAT rates to fall while still compensating for the loss from reduced tariffs and would increase the welfare gain from the Customs Union.
Kozo Kiyota - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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an analysis of a us southern african Customs Union sacu free trade agreement
World Development, 2008Co-Authors: Drusilla K Brown, Kozo Kiyota, Robert M SternAbstract:Summary This paper analyzes the potential economic effects of bilateral negotiations for an FTA between the United States and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The US–SACU FTA bilateral negotiations were initiated in June 2003, but have become deadlocked over a series of issues of concern to the SACU. To determine whether a bilateral FTA might be in the SACU members’ interests, we use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the welfare and other economic effects of a bilateral FTA. We conclude that the benefits of an FTA are rather small, and that the interests of the global trading community, including the United States and SACU, could be better served by unilateral and especially multilateral liberalization.
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computational analysis of the u s fta with the southern african Customs Union sacu
Research Papers in Economics, 2004Co-Authors: Drusilla K Brown, Kozo Kiyota, Robert M SternAbstract:We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. FTA being negotiated with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the U.S.-SACU FTA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of the bilateral FTA for the United States and the SACU are rather small in both absolute and relative terms. Far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and the SACU adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.
Sübidey Togan - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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twenty years of the eu turkey Customs Union a synthetic control method analysis
Journal of Common Market Studies, 2017Co-Authors: Huseyin Aytug, Merve Mavus Kutuk, Arif Oduncu, Sübidey ToganAbstract:The paper studying the 1995 EU–Turkey Customs Union (CU) delivers a quantitative assessment of trade and GDP per capita effects of the CU on the Turkish economy. Our Synthetic Control Method based analysis reveals, contrary to the results of most studies in the literature, that the CU's effects have been substantial by any standards. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the EU–Turkey CU, Turkish exports to the EU and GDP per capita would have been 38 per cent and 13 per cent less, respectively.
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The EU-Turkey Customs Union: A model for Future Euro-Med Integration. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 9/March 2012
2012Co-Authors: Sübidey ToganAbstract:This paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) reveals that the CU has been a major instrument of integration of the Turkish economy into the EU and global markets, offering powerful tools to reform the Turkish economy. Turkish producers of industrial goods are protected by tariffs from external competition to exactly the same extent as EU producers, and they face competition from duty-free imports of industrial goods from world-class pan-European firms. In return, Turkish industrial producers have duty-free market access to the European Economic Area, which was recently extended to certain Mediterranean countries. Trade liberalisation achieved through the CU has thus successfully moved the Turkish economy from a government-controlled regime to a market-based one, and Turkish producers of industrial goods have performed remarkably well. The paper further shows that market access conditions for Turkish producers are determined, in addition to tariffs, by standards, conformity assessment procedures, competition policy, industrial property rights and contingent protectionism measures. The CU also offered Turkey the opportunity to establish new institutions, and modernise and upgrade rules and disciplines required for the elimination of technical barriers to trade, and for the implementation of the EU’s competition, industrial property rights, and contingent protectionism policies.
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on the european Union turkey Customs Union
CASE Network Studies and Analyses, 2011Co-Authors: Sübidey ToganAbstract:The purpose of the paper is to study the European Union - Turkey Customs Union (CU) of 1995 covering trade in industrial goods. The Customs Union decision of 1995 tending to rules and disciplines on various regulatory border and behind-the-border policies covers in particular Customs reform, technical barriers to trade, competition policy, intellectual property rights, and administrative procedures. The paper after assessing in each case the status quo at the time of the entry of the CU into force evaluates the commitments undertaken under the CU, and assesses the degree of implementation of the CU requirements as well as the administrative costs of implementation of the CU. Finally, the paper shows how the CU has successfully moved the Turkish economy from a government-controlled regime to a market based one.
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opening up the turkish economy in the context of the Customs Union with eu
Journal of Economic Integration, 1997Co-Authors: Sübidey ToganAbstract:The paper consider the Turkey-EU Customs Union (CU). After re v i e w i n g briefly the developments in Turkey-EU relations the paper studies the structure of protection that prevailed prior to the formation of the CU as well as struc ture of protection that will prevail when all of the adjustments required by the CU will be completed. The re s o u r ce allocation effects of the CU are studied using nominal and effective protection rates. Besides the liberalization of trade the CU introduces new rules and disciplines that will effect the functioning of markets in Turkey. With the formation of CU Turkey is confronted with reduc tions in annual tax revenue. The paper studies the possible effects of tax rev enue losses as well as the ef fects of the CU on FDI in-flows.
