The Experts below are selected from a list of 10053 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
Imad A. Moosa - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The Cyclical Behaviour of Nominal and Real Stock Prices: Evidence from Japan
Journal of international economic studies, 2003Co-Authors: Liam J. A. Lenten, Imad A. MoosaAbstract:This study investigates the Cyclical Behaviour of nominal and real stock prices, as well as the ability of the stock market to perform the function of an inflation hedge. On the basis of a sample of quarterly data covering the period 1966:1-1998:1, the following results are obtained. First, stock prices (both nominal and real) are proCyclical while prices are counterCyclical. Second, stock prices appear to be a leading indicator of the business cycle by a margin of two quarters (six months). Finally, the stock market is not a good inflation hedge.
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the Cyclical Behaviour of prices in the u k some structural time series evidence
2000Co-Authors: Imad A. MoosaAbstract:The Cyclical Behaviour of prices in the U.K. is investigated using a sample of annual observations covering the period 1886 1993. A structural time series model relating consumer prices to output is estimated over four sub-periods. The results indicate that prices were proCyclical in the inter-war period, counterCyclical in the post-1973 period and aCyclical otherwise. The proposition that the Cyclical Behaviour of prices is determined by the dominance of supply or demand shocks alone is disputed on the basis of empirical evidence and theoretical reasoning. It is concluded that the Cyclical Behaviour of prices cannot be explained just by analysing time series on output and prices and that due attention should be changes occurring during the period under study. It is demonstrated that the empirical results are consistent with the events experienced by the U.K. economy in the most recent period.
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The Cyclical Behaviour of Prices in the U.K.: Some Structural Time Series Evidence
Empirical Economics, 2000Co-Authors: Imad A. MoosaAbstract:The Cyclical Behaviour of prices in the U.K. is investigated using a sample of annual observations covering the period 1886-1993. A structural time series model relating consumer prices to output is estimated over four sub-periods. The results indicate that prices were proCyclical in the inter-war period, counterCyclical in the post-1973 period and aCyclical otherwise. The proposition that the Cyclical Behaviour of prices is determined by the dominance of supply or demand shocks alone is disputed on the basis of empirical evidence and theoretical reasoning. It is concluded that the Cyclical Behaviour of prices cannot be explained just by analysing time series on output and prices and that due attention should be paid to the institutional and policy changes occurring during the period under study. It is demonstrated that the empirical results are consistent with the events experienced by the U.K. economy in the most recent period.
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Some evidence on the counterCyclicality of the trade balance
Applied Economics Letters, 1999Co-Authors: Liam J. A. Lenten, Imad A. MoosaAbstract:The Cyclical Behaviour of the trade balance is examined using quarterly data for eight countries covering the period 1960:1-1995:3. Two methods are employed: the calculation of the correlation coefficient between the HP-filtered series and the estimation of a structural time series model. Both methods produce results which are supportive of the hypothesis of counterCyclicality of the trade balance.
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International Structural Time Series Evidence on the Cyclical Behaviour of Prices
Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 1998Co-Authors: Imad A. Moosa, Nabeel E. Al-loughaniAbstract:This paper re-examines the Cyclical Behaviour of prices in nine countries over long historical periods extending in some cases between the late 1800s and the early 1990s. By evaluating the existing empirical evidence on this issue it is found that the results are sensitive to a number of factors such as the choice of filter and the price variable. The results of structural time series analysis reveal substantial cross-country differences.
J Fabregat - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2004Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantized infrared excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the proposed resonant truncation scheme for Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs). The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of the truncation radius is accreted by the neutron star (NS). Furthermore, changes between states are shown to be governed by a ∼1500-d period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general. Additionally, the subsonic radial expansion of the Be disc is measured, and photometric evidence for a NS accretion disc during a type II outburst discussed. Values for the stellar inclination, mass and rotational velocity are derived, and photometric modulation at P orb detected.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
arXiv: Astrophysics, 2003Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantised IR excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the resonant truncation scheme proposed by Okazaki and Negueruela (2001) for BeXRBs. The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of truncation radius is accreted by the NS. Furthermore changes between states are shown to be governed by a 1500 day period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general.
N J Haigh - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2004Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantized infrared excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the proposed resonant truncation scheme for Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs). The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of the truncation radius is accreted by the neutron star (NS). Furthermore, changes between states are shown to be governed by a ∼1500-d period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general. Additionally, the subsonic radial expansion of the Be disc is measured, and photometric evidence for a NS accretion disc during a type II outburst discussed. Values for the stellar inclination, mass and rotational velocity are derived, and photometric modulation at P orb detected.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
arXiv: Astrophysics, 2003Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantised IR excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the resonant truncation scheme proposed by Okazaki and Negueruela (2001) for BeXRBs. The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of truncation radius is accreted by the NS. Furthermore changes between states are shown to be governed by a 1500 day period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general.
Claude Diebolt - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Rare events in the american GDP time series, 1790 -present : Factor artefact?
2010Co-Authors: Mohamed Chikhi, Claude DieboltAbstract:This paper studies the Cyclical Behaviour of the annual American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. We show that rare events have varied effects, which give useful information on the nature and the amplitude of economic shocks. Our methodology is, more precisely, an efficient testing procedure to control the robustness of historical time series constructions. KEYWORDS : Cliometrics, GDP, Historical Time Series, Outliers, USA.
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Transitory Exogenous Shocks in a Non-Linear Framework: Application to the Cyclical Behaviour of the German Aggregate Wage Earnings
Historical Social Research, 2009Co-Authors: Mohamed Chikhi, Claude DieboltAbstract:This paper analyses the Cyclical Behaviour of the German annual aggregate wage earnings over 179 years. Our results show that there are transitory exogenous shocks which contain predictive information for aggregate wages in a non-linear framework.
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transitory exogenous shocks in a non linear framework application to the Cyclical Behaviour of the german aggregate wage earnings
Historical Social Research, 2009Co-Authors: Mohamed Chikhi, Claude DieboltAbstract:Transitorische exogene Schocks in einem nicht-linearen Rahmen: Anwendung auf das zyklische Verhalten des aggregierten deutschen Lohnein- kommens«. This paper analyses the Cyclical Behaviour of the German annual aggregate wage earnings over 179 years. Our results show that there are transi- tory exogenous shocks which contain predictive information for aggregate wages in a non-linear framework. This paper analyses, in extension to a previous publication by Diebolt (2008), the Cyclical behavior of the German annual aggregate wage earnings over 179 years (see Figure 1). The Dickey-Fuller and Philips-Perron unit-root tests show that one unit root exists in this series (see Table 1). The Schmidt-Phillips unit root test is applied in order to confirm these results. These tests are particularly important because they are robust with the heteroscedasticity. Our time series is finally log-differenced to give the stationary aggregate wages earnings series in Figure 2. As shown in Table 2, there is strong evidence that the null hypothesis of normality is rejected. Leptokurtosis in the data is revealed by a high Kurtosis coefficient of 24.77 and a Jarque-Bera statistic of 3539.18. Moreover, the Cramer-Von Mises, Watson and Anderson-Darling statistics are greater than the critical value at significance level 5%. The rejection of normality is con- firmed. The nonparametric kernel density estimator confirms these results. Figure 3 shows the asymmetry and leptokurtic character of the distribution. This asymmetry may be caused by the presence of nonlinearities in this series. Moreover, the scatter diagram (see Figure 4) confirms these results and shows that the obtained form is irregular ellipsoid and the distribution is typically non- Gaussian. As can be seen in Table 3, we note that the random walk hypothesis is clearly rejected. The nonparametric BDS statistics, which test for the pres-
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New international evidence on the Cyclical Behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered
Quality & Quantity, 2008Co-Authors: Claude Diebolt, Cédric DoligerAbstract:Spectral analysis is a particularly valuable method for seeking dependences expressed as lags between different magnitudes. Its use in this article was first determined by the search for maximum objectivity in the observation of time series. The possibility of applying it to a large number of series was then examined. This twin requirement resulted from a desire to avoid the criticism generally levelled at statistical studies concerning Cyclical movements of the economy. Spectral analysis is based on the theory of stochastic processes. It starts with the core hypothesis that a given time series consists of a large number of sinusoidal components with different frequencies (univariate spectral analysis). It makes it possible to divide a particular category of records into a set of oscillations of different frequencies and then to show the links between the components with the same frequency in the various series examined (cross-spectral or bivariate spectral analysis). It has had limited applications in cliometrics to date. It is used here to determine the frequency of GDP series of several OECD countries. A reminder of the method Sect. 2 is followed by successive examination of the various series chosen, the treatment of these series and the results of spectral analysis Sect. 3. It is then possible as a conclusion to show the prospects of this type of approach and to synthesise a completely new major result for understanding economic dynamics in nineteenth and twentieth centuries, that is to say the existence of a single intermediate cycle with 15–0-year frequency that calls into question or even partially contradicts previous work on economic cycles.
M J Coe - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2004Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantized infrared excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the proposed resonant truncation scheme for Be X-ray binaries (BeXRBs). The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of the truncation radius is accreted by the neutron star (NS). Furthermore, changes between states are shown to be governed by a ∼1500-d period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general. Additionally, the subsonic radial expansion of the Be disc is measured, and photometric evidence for a NS accretion disc during a type II outburst discussed. Values for the stellar inclination, mass and rotational velocity are derived, and photometric modulation at P orb detected.
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Cyclical Behaviour and disc truncation in the be x ray binary a0535 26
arXiv: Astrophysics, 2003Co-Authors: N J Haigh, M J Coe, J FabregatAbstract:A0535+26 is shown to display quantised IR excess flux states, which are interpreted as the first observational verification of the resonant truncation scheme proposed by Okazaki and Negueruela (2001) for BeXRBs. The simultaneity of X-ray activity with transitions between these states strongly suggests a broad mechanism for outbursts, in which material lost from the disc during the reduction of truncation radius is accreted by the NS. Furthermore changes between states are shown to be governed by a 1500 day period, probably due to precession of the Be disc, which profoundly dictates the global Behaviour of the system. Such a framework appears to be applicable to BeXRBs in general.
