The Experts below are selected from a list of 360 Experts worldwide ranked by ideXlab platform
David N Weil - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond
Social Science Research Network, 2001Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous Transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a Demographic Transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained growth of income.
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population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond
The American Economic Review, 2000Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population,technology,and output. It encompasses theendogenous Transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from aMalthusianregime,wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita,intoaPost-Malthusianregime,wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a Demographic Transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth,andtheeconomyentersaModernGrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth
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population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond
The American Economic Review, 2000Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a Demographic Transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate or even negative, and income per capita rises rapidly. Two forces drive the Transitions between regimes: First, technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education. Second, technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium, which raises the return to human capital and induces patients to substitute child quality for quantity.
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population technology and growth from the malthusian regime to the Demographic Transition
Social Science Research Network, 1998Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper examines the evolution of the relationship between population growth technological change and the standard of living. It develops a unified model of growth population and technological progress that encompasses three distinct regimes: Malthusian Post-Malthusian and Modern Growth. The analysis focuses on two differences between these regimes--in the behavior of income per capita and in the relationship between the level of income per capita and the growth rate of population. In the Malthusian regime population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a Demographic Transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime population growth is moderate or even negative and income per capita increases rapidly. Moreover there are two forces that drive the Transitions between these regimes: 1) technological progress is driven both by increases in the size of the population and by increases in the average level of education; 2) technological progress creates a state of disequilibrium which raises the return of human capital and induces parents to substitute child quality for quantity.
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population technology and growth from the malthusian regime to the Demographic Transition
Research Papers in Economics, 1998Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unified model of growth, population, and technological progress that is consistent with long-term historical evidence. The economy endogenously evolves through three phases. In the Malthusian regime, population growth is positively related to the level of income per capita. Technological progress is slow and is matched by proportional increases in population, so that output per capita is stable around a constant level. In the post-Malthusian regime, the growth rates of technology and total output increase. Population growth absorbs much of the growth of output, but income per capita does rise slowly. The economy endogenously undergoes a Demographic Transition in which the traditionally positive relationship between income per capita and population growth is reversed. In the Modern Growth regime, population growth is moderate and income per capita rises rapidly.
Oded Galor - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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The Demographic Transition: causes and consequences
Cliometrica, 2012Co-Authors: Oded GalorAbstract:This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the Demographic Transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the Transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the Transition to modern growth
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the Demographic Transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2005Co-Authors: Oded GalorAbstract:The Demographic Transition that swept the world in the course of the last century has been identified as one of the prime forces in the Transition from stagnation to growth. The unprecedented increase in population growth during the early stages of industrialization was ultimately reversed and the Demographic Transition brought about a significant reduction in fertility rates and population growth in various regions of the world, enabling economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. This paper examines various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the Demographic Transition, assessing their empirical validity, and their potential role in the Transition from stagnation to growth. (JEL: O11, O14, O33, O40, J11, J13)
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the Demographic Transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth
GE Growth Math methods, 2004Co-Authors: Oded GalorAbstract:The Demographic Transition that swept the world in the course of the last century has been identified as one of the prime forces in the Transition from stagnation to growth. The unprecedented increase in population growth during the early stages of industrialization was ultimately reversed and the Demographic Transition brought about a significant reduction in fertility rates and population growth in various regions of the world, enabling economies to convert a larger share of the fruits of factor accumulation and technological progress into growth of income per capita. This paper examines various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the Demographic Transition, assessing their empirical validity, and their potential role in the Transition from stagnation to growth.
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population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond
Social Science Research Network, 2001Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous Transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a Demographic Transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime with reduced population growth and sustained growth of income.
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population technology and growth from malthusian stagnation to the Demographic Transition and beyond
The American Economic Review, 2000Co-Authors: Oded Galor, David N WeilAbstract:This paper develops a unied growth model that captures the historical evolution of population,technology,and output. It encompasses theendogenous Transitionbetween three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from aMalthusianregime,wheretechnologicalprogressis slow andpopulationgrowthprevents anysustainedriseinincomepercapita,intoaPost-Malthusianregime,wheretechnological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a Demographic Transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth,andtheeconomyentersaModernGrowthregimewithreducedpopulationgrowth
Rodrigo R Soares - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the Demographic Transition and the sexual division of labor
Journal of Political Economy, 2008Co-Authors: Bruno L S Falcao, Rodrigo R SoaresAbstract:This paper presents a theory in which increases in female labor force participation and reductions in the gender‐wage gap are generated as part of a single process of Demographic Transition, initially characterized by reductions in mortality and fertility. The paper suggests a relationship between gains in life expectancy and changes in the role of women in society that has not been identified before in the literature. Mortality reductions affect the incentives of individuals to invest in human capital and to have children, with implications for female labor force participation and the wage differential between men and women. The paper also presents some empirical evidence to support the predictions of the theory.
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the Demographic Transition and the sexual division of labor
Social Science Research Network, 2007Co-Authors: Bruno L S Falcao, Rodrigo R SoaresAbstract:This paper presents a theory where increases in female labor force participation and reductions in the gender wage-gap are generated as part of a single process of Demographic Transition, characterized by reductions in mortality and fertility. The paper suggests a link between changes in mortality and transformations in the role of women in society that has not been identified before in the literature. Mortality reductions affect the incentives of individuals to invest in human capital and to have children. Particularly, gains in adult longevity reduce fertility, increase investments in market human capital, increase female labor force participation, and reduce the wage differential between men and women. Child mortality reductions, though reducing fertility, do not generate this same pattern of changes. The model reconciles the increase in female labor market participation with the timing of age-specific mortality reductions observed during the Demographic Transition. It generates changes in fertility, labor market attachment, and the gender wage-gap as part of a single process of social transformation, triggered by reductions in mortality.
Uwe Sunde - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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the economic and Demographic Transition mortality and comparative development
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015Co-Authors: Matteo Cervellati, Uwe SundeAbstract:This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and Demographic Transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the resulting worldwide comparative development patterns, including the bimodal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. (JEL
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the economic and Demographic Transition mortality and comparative development
2013Co-Authors: Matteo Cervellati, Uwe SundeAbstract:We propose a unified growth theory to investigate the mechanics generating the economic and Demographic Transition, and the role of mortality differences for comparative development. The framework can replicate the quantitative patterns in historical time series data and in contemporaneous cross-country panel data, including the bi-modal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. The results suggest that differences in extrinsic mortality might explain a substantial part of the observed differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the worldwide density distribution of the main variables of interest.
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Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the Demographic Transition
Journal of Economic Growth, 2011Co-Authors: Matteo Cervellati, Uwe SundeAbstract:This paper investigates the hypothesis that the causal effect of life expectancy on income per capita growth is non-monotonic. This hypothesis follows from the recent literature on unified growth, in which the Demographic Transition represents an important turning point for population dynamics and hence plays a central role for the Transition from stagnation to growth. Results from different empirical specifications and identification strategies document that the effect is non-monotonic, negative (but often insignificant) before the onset of the Demographic Transition, but strongly positive after its onset. The results provide a new interpretation of the contradictory existing evidence and have relevant policy implications.
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life expectancy and economic growth the role of the Demographic Transition
Social Science Research Network, 2009Co-Authors: Matteo Cervellati, Uwe SundeAbstract:In this paper we investigate the causal effect of life expectancy on economic growth by explicitly accounting for the role of the Demographic Transition. In addition to focusing on issues of empirical identification, this paper emphasizes the role of the econometric specification. We present a simple theory of the economic and Demographic Transition where individuals' education and fertility decisions depend on their life expectancy. The theory predicts that before the Demographic Transition improvements in life expectancy primarily increase population. Improvements in life expectancy do, however, reduce population growth and foster human capital accumulation after the onset of the Demographic Transition. This implies that the effect of life expectancy on population, human capital and income per capita is not the same before and after the Demographic Transition. Moreover, a sufficiently high life expectancy is ultimately the trigger of the Transition to sustained income growth. We provide evidence supporting these predictions using data on exogenous mortality reductions in the context of the epidemiological revolution.
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human capital mortality and fertility a unified theory of the economic and Demographic Transition
2007Co-Authors: Matteo Cervellati, Uwe SundeAbstract:This paper argues that accounting for the dynamic interactions between endogenous changes in longevity, the education composition of the population, and the associated fertility differential is crucial for understanding the economic and the Demographic Transition. In the model, heterogeneous individuals make optimal decisions about fertility, education of their children and type and intensity of investments in their own education. The interplay between different dimensions of mortality, and education and fertility decisions delivers a phase Transition that replicates stylized facts that previously have been difficult to reconcile. Simulations illustrate the model dynamics and their consistency with historical and cross-country data.
Guido Alfani - One of the best experts on this subject based on the ideXlab platform.
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Consequences of a universal European Demographic Transition on regional and global population distributions
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015Co-Authors: Vegard Skirbekk, Marcin Stonawski, Guido AlfaniAbstract:Abstract This study provides simulations showing what global and regional population sizes would be if the rest of the world would have experienced similar population growth patterns as what was observed in Europe during the Demographic Transition. In 1820–2010, slower growth was observed in Europe & North America where population increased by 4.6 times to a level of 1088 million. The population of Asia increased from 720 million to 4165 million. However, the biggest change from 1820 to 2010 was observed in regions that had relatively small populations in 1820 — Latin America (which increased by 38 times to 597 million) and Africa (which increased by 14 times to 1031 million). Our simulations show that if the French pattern of population growth had been followed (French population size increasing by 2.5 from 1820–2010), the global population would have merely doubled during the Demographic Transition (increasing to 2.02 times its original size) over the 1820–2010 period. All regions would have had a significantly lower population size: Europe & North America would have increased to 474 million and Asia to 1453 million, while Africa would have grown to 150 million, which is just 15% of its current population. Projections suggest that population implications of following the in the coming decades would have been much lower. While UN median variant projections suggest that it would reach 914 million people by 2100.
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consequences of a universal european Demographic Transition on regional and global population distributions
Research Papers in Economics, 2014Co-Authors: Vegard Skirbekk, Marcin Stonawski, Guido AlfaniAbstract:During the Demographic Transition that in Europe tended to take place from the early 19th to the end of the 20th century, the population in European countries and its overseas offshoots increased by a factor of five or less, which is low compared to the increase now taking place in most other regions of the world. This study provides simulations showing what global and regional population sizes would be if the rest of the world experienced similar population growth patterns as were observed in Europe. European culture distinguished itself through choices that led to the European marriage pattern, characterized by late marriage, significant shares not marrying, low levels of extramarital childbearing, and comparatively low fertility. One important consequence was the relatively low population growth characterizing the cultures, religions, and ethno-linguistic groups where the European marriage pattern was dominant.